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原帖由 LinuxXp 于 2012-5-18 08:37 发表 ![](http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/images/common/back.gif)
别忘了已经在澳洲的中国人,谁没有在国内有房子?只要澳币跌到 5 以下,你就看看吧。
澳币要是再跌到5。5以下,两种原因。1。大陆经济还是大好,但不再需要澳洲的原材料。2。大陆楼市崩盘,大陆经济有硬着路的迹象,澳元作为资源货币不再被追捧。
第1种情况,除非大陆有强大的内需来支持经济增长,目前绝大部分的GDP增长是靠基础建设和楼市撑着。要靠国内内需来撑经济增长不是就靠那些暴发户可以达到的。
下面是中国楼市2012年第1季度和去年的同期相比,不难看出,中国的楼市在cooling.如果是这样的话,试问本身很多钱都套在楼市里的人,哪来钱再投资澳洲楼市,特别是世界其它国家都有了一轮很大的楼市回调,唯独澳洲还没有,全世界的媒体都在讲澳洲的房价过高了。到时如果有闲钱,是不是投资到美国好过澳洲。
source: http://www.economonitor.com/blog ... al-estate-unravels/
* Year-on-year sales in the first quarter for all real estate DOWN 14.6%.
* Residential property sales DOWN 17.5%
* Total amount of floor space 'for sale' was up 35.5% year-on-year
* Floor space of residential units 'for sale' grew 47.4%
* Housing starts DOWN 14.4% year-on-year and 23.4% month-on-month
* April land sale revenues DOWN 54.7% year on year.
So if sales were down, and starts were either flat or down, where was the 23.5% investment growth coming from? Developers, burdened by 70% leverage ratios and loans threatening to come due, were rushing to complete whatever projects were already in their pipeline, in order to put those units onto the market and raise cash. Completions (measured in floor space) were up 39.3% in Q1, compared to last year (residential completions were similarly up 40.0%). But, of course, those completed units weren’t selling like last year, so unsold inventories expanded. At the close of Q1, the total amount of floor space “for sale” was up 35.5%, compared to the same date last year, while the floor space of residential units “for sale” grew 47.4%.
[ 本帖最后由 jhsun3 于 2012-5-18 10:06 编辑 ] |
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