【2017】鸡年交易记录

122725635

bondzh 发表于 2017-3-16 10:29
0.66。今天总体金矿走势都不如我想的强，也没到美股金矿的力量。先放0.65吧 ...

的确开盘没有想的强势，中午还没有就先撤下来一部分了

dragonballz

bondzh 发表于 2017-3-16 10:29
0.66。今天总体金矿走势都不如我想的强，也没到美股金矿的力量。先放0.65吧 ...

Because AUD rises a lot to offset the gold rising

Today true gold price in AUD is 1220/0.77=AUD$1584.4
Yesterday gold price in AUD was 1199/0.758=AUD$1582.
only rising about 0.15%

122725635

dragonballz 发表于 2017-3-16 10:39
Because AUD rises a lot to offset the gold rising

原来如此哦，多谢解答！

bondzh

dragonballz 发表于 2017-3-16 10:39
Because AUD rises a lot to offset the gold rising

有可能。。。

dragonballz

bondzh 发表于 2017-3-16 10:34
别急，等黄金回调。或许会回踩1210，那时候买更好

I am looking to buy more US shares at this strong AUD and then wait for AUD turning weaker to sell them off

chengyongice

为什么美加息，黄金会涨呢？

不是应该反过来吗？

dragonballz

chengyongice 发表于 2017-3-16 10:44
为什么美加息，黄金会涨呢？

不是应该反过来吗？

One possible explanation is: market has already priced the current cut in (you could see how heavily gold price dropped in last 2 weeks) and then anticipated another one cut in June. However, FOMC suddenly changed its tone from hawkish into dovish  The possibility of another cut will be postponed to Sep. So whole market has party on again

ningxiaoque

bondzh 发表于 2017-3-16 10:34
别急，等黄金回调。或许会回踩1210，那时候买更好

短线

bondzh

dragonballz 发表于 2017-3-16 10:47
One possible explanation is: market has already priced the current cut in (you could see how heavi ...

是这个道理。另外就是大部分散户都是觉得加息金会跌，所以就涨了

tiansen90904

bondzh 发表于 2017-3-16 08:00
是这个道理。另外就是大部分散户都是觉得加息金会跌，所以就涨了

鸭神，你是说大部分散户没有意识到市场已经在加息前提前做出了反应？那来看看这个帖子就行了

122725635

tiansen90904 发表于 2017-3-16 11:11
鸭神，你是说大部分散户没有意识到市场已经在加息前提前做出了反应？那来看看这个帖子就行了
...

大部分的散户没有看到这个帖子

dragonballz

bondzh 发表于 2017-3-16 11:00
是这个道理。另外就是大部分散户都是觉得加息金会跌，所以就涨了

I was one of them who anticipated gold dropped today and prepared another $25K to buy RSG but missed

chengyongice

bondzh 发表于 2017-3-16 11:00
是这个道理。另外就是大部分散户都是觉得加息金会跌，所以就涨了

多谢回复。

可是从本帖来看，大部分散户（帖子的参与者）都觉得今天金价会涨啊？

essencnz

耶大妈不够鹰

tiansen90904

dragonballz 发表于 2017-3-16 07:47
One possible explanation is: market has already priced the current cut in (you could see how heavi ...

龙珠兄，在哪里看得到你说的关于原本再次加息在6月现在推迟到9月的信息？

我读了下FOMC这次会议的statement，似乎没有注意到这个细节？谢！

bondzh

tiansen90904 发表于 2017-3-16 11:11
鸭神，你是说大部分散户没有意识到市场已经在加息前提前做出了反应？那来看看这个帖子就行了
...

前面一句没错，后面一句不能乱说。
而且前半周顶着大跌抄底的，本身就很难。另外啦，散户有多少，看到这帖子的有多少？就我们这些人翻不起大风浪的。

tiansen90904

chengyongice 发表于 2017-3-16 08:17
多谢回复。

可是从本帖来看，大部分散户（帖子的参与者）都觉得今天金价会涨啊？

我觉着是，因为过去两周黄金股已经回调到位了（根据之前帖子里大神们的分析），所以在前几天股价小幅度上升的时候，大家也都陆续补了一些股票了。但是在昨天，由于对于FOMC决议的严重程度的不确定，有一部分人没有选择在昨天买入（例如龙珠兄）。但有一些仍然在昨天买入了（例如咆哮哥）。所以对于金价在今天的上涨，大家的想法还不都是一致的。

tiansen90904

bondzh 发表于 2017-3-16 08:30
前面一句没错，后面一句不能乱说。
另外啦，散户有多少，看到这帖子的有多少？就我们这些人翻不起大风浪 ...

对，ALWAYS DYOR.

按照你的经验，黄金股随着金价的变化，基本全都是提前于相关政策，条例，决议等等做出相应的反应是么？

dragonballz

tiansen90904 发表于 2017-3-16 11:26
龙珠兄，在哪里看得到你说的关于原本再次加息在6月现在推迟到9月的信息？

我读了下FOMC这次会议的statem ...

The market reads Yellen's speech between lines and anticipates further hikes unlikely in June.

Experts initially thought 100% hike in March (today), 100% hikes in June and Sep. After FOMC decision, June chance drops to <50%, Sep still 100% at the moment.

bondzh

dragonballz 发表于 2017-3-16 11:38
The market reads Yellen's speech between lines and anticipates further hikes unlikely in June.

Ex ...

我到现在还没看fomc的新闻到底是啥。。。

bondzh

tiansen90904 发表于 2017-3-16 11:35
对，ALWAYS DYOR.

按照你的经验，黄金股随着金价的变化，基本全都是提前于相关政策，条例，决议等等做出 ...

这点我打算有空总结一下，包括之前过于冒进的失误，还有金和金矿的联系。这次学到不少，之前的判断体系有bug，这次失误fix了一下。

先把大纲列一下，怕以后忘了：
1。基本面，每个公司成本龙珠兄总结的很好，加上wanghui兄给的公司现金流债务之类的 － 正确 (两位记得加一下好友，这样可以＠你)
2。金和美元的影响 － 正确
3。金和金矿的联系 － wrong
4。澳元和美元的影响 － missed
5。美金矿股对澳金矿股的影响 － ignored
6。每个股票每天走势习惯 － 关注到了但didn't pay much attention

dragonballz

bondzh 发表于 2017-3-16 11:42
我到现在还没看fomc的新闻到底是啥。。。

From AFR

US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen's less hawkish than feared comments about plans for future "gradual" interest rate increases after lifting borrowing costs on Thursday morning sent the Australian dollar surging through US77¢ and stocks on Wall Street higher.

The Fed expects to lift short term interest rates twice more this year - as markets expected - after raising the Fed funds target rate to a range of 0.75 to 1 per cent at its March meeting.

Despite a slight pick up in US economic activity, robust hiring, firming inflation and jump in consumer and business confidence in recent months, the Federal Open Market Committee left its economic outlook largely unchanged for the next three years.

Dr Yellen said the rise in business sentiment in recent months was "obvious" but the economic "data have not notably strengthened" despite the economy "doing well" overall.


"We haven't changed our view of the outlook," Dr Yellen said.

"We expect policy to remain accommodative now for some time."

Stocks on Wall Street have rallied to record highs in recent times on bets of an improving economy and US President Donald Trump's plan to slash corporate and personal taxes and cut business regulations.

Despite a minority of FOMC participants factoring in a US government stimulus, Dr Yellen said most of her colleagues were not pre-emptively engaging in "speculation" on adjustments to fiscal policy.

That implies that if Mr Trump successfully negotiates with Congress on tax cuts, higher defence spending and a boost in infrastructure investment, the Fed could be forced to raise rates faster than its current projections suggest.

The Fed's central forecast for economic growth is a subdued 2.1 per cent in 2017 and 2018, before easing back to 1.8 per cent over the long-term, well below the 3 to 4 per cent goal Mr Trump has pledged.

The Fed's modest outlook for the economy and a benign forecast for future interest rates contrasted to a more upbeat and hawkish reaction that some financial market participants were bracing for after Fed officials in recent weeks seemingly put them on alert for faster rising rates.

The US dollar index fell nearly 1 per cent against a basket of currencies soon after the FOMC's statement was released. The Australian dollar soared almost 2 per cent versus the greenback to US77.18¢ around 7am AEDT.

US stocks rallied. By the close of trade in New York on Wednesday the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.54 per cent, the broad S&P 500 index was 0.84 per cent higher and the Nasdaq Composite had gained 0.74 per cent.

Investors piled into government bonds, causing yields on US Treasuries to plunge. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell 0.10 of a percentage point to 2.50 per cent, while the interest-rate sensitive two-year Treasury yield slid to 1.3 per cent.

PIMCO chief investment officer for US core strategies Scott Mather said: "There were some sections of the market that expected dramatically revised forecasts and [interest rate] dot plot and therefore many people have found themselves too short of US funds."

The Fed made minimal changes to its policy statement, saying it expected "gradual" rate increases in future, compared to "only gradual" in its January statement.

Dr Yellen said that wage growth seemed to be improving and that business investment, which has been lacklustre, had "firmed somewhat".

Unemployment is a low 4.7 per cent and the Fed expects it to nudge down to 4.5 per cent, without stoking too much inflation, thanks partly to labour on the sidelines opting to return to the workforce.

Inflation data published Wednesday showed the consumer price index hitting a five-year high of 2.7 per cent in February, above the Fed's 2 per cent target.

But Dr Yellen pointed out that the Fed's preferred underlying inflation measure which strips out volatile food and energy prices, the core personal consumption expenditure index, was "little changed" in recent months at 1.75 per cent. Inflation was expected to stabilise at around 2 per cent over the next few years, she said.  

JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist David Kelly said the "Fed remains dovish".

"If you look at the long term forecasts, we've hit all of them – we're there right now on growth, inflation and unemployment," he told US financial news channel CNBC.

"But the Fed is two years or more from its long term [interest rate] target."

The FOMC projects the Fed funds rate to be 1.4 per cent by then end of this year and 2.1 per cent by December 2018.

By the end of 2019, the Fed expects its interest rate to be around 3 per cent, in what would amount to a very slow monetary tightening cycle and leave rates at low levels by historical standards.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/markets/stock ... uz27i#ixzz4bRf2Lltj
Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

dragonballz

Healthcare sector is today's big loser

It is time to have a look at my strategy to reduce some holdings in this sector. RHC dropped towards $62.50, while CSL drops below $124

dragonballz

bondzh 发表于 2017-3-16 11:44
这点我打算有空总结一下，包括之前过于冒进的失误，还有金和金矿的联系。这次学到不少，之前的判断体系有 ...

I made similar mistake to act too early on gold. When it dropped to 1.50-1.60, I could not wait to buy, which is a stupid action. Otherwise I would count my gain >10%. Today's RSG price just makes me even at present

经济解释

赚钱不容易啊

tiansen90904

dragonballz 发表于 2017-3-16 08:38
The market reads Yellen's speech between lines and anticipates further hikes unlikely in June.

Ex ...

龙珠兄帮忙推荐几个信息来源的网站？你经常关注的就行。多谢！

tiansen90904

bondzh 发表于 2017-3-16 08:44
这点我打算有空总结一下，包括之前过于冒进的失误，还有金和金矿的联系。这次学到不少，之前的判断体系有 ...

期待！授人以鱼不如授人以渔。

bondzh

bondzh 发表于 2017-3-13 12:18
最近澳洲政府合法化医用大麻，https://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/ ... ;tid=1296510&pa 几个种weed的都发家了。
大家有没有兴趣一起研究一下...

都没有人有兴趣么？前天大涨20%-30%, 昨天大跌10－20%今天又涨5%－40%
列几个龙头股下来：ac8, cph, mmj, ese。
期待基本面大神的精彩分析

经济解释

金价到1224了，RSG应该突破$1.5吧

dragonballz

bondzh 发表于 2017-3-16 12:11
都没有人有兴趣么？前天大涨20%-30%, 昨天大跌10－20%今天又涨5%－40%
列几个龙头股下来：ac8, cph, mmj, ...

前段时间已经在关注了。AFR还有一篇综述。不过了解的不够所以不敢贸然动手