关于房价的思考和疑惑

sunflowerseed

利息,新提议的物业税,移民政策太多不定因素. 还是观望为好.

someeric

应该冷静的看到，现在房市的主要危机是防止过热，而不是暴跌。
基本的供给和需求来看，短期不存在暴跌的可能。

楼上说的这些趋向收紧涨幅的政策越多，在将来真正面临危机的时候，政府手中的筹码就越多。

ddwwhhkk

好帖，继续关注中，辛苦楼主了，不知道2010年澳洲房价会走势如何

seaglesun

从07年到09年，房价一直是疯长。越看这房价越觉得疯狂。刚买了房子，觉得买的不太值，又担心房价会跌，岂不是更亏。

brightyellow

房价不会跌，最多只是不涨！

patricb

Saturday, 6th February 2010



The auction market picked up where it left off last year with a  
clearance rate of 83 percent from the 161 reported auctions today.  
Buyers have not been dissuaded from strong bidding by the three  
interest rate rises last year nor the expectation that more will come this  
year. The reduction in financial assistance to first home buyers on  
31 December does not appear to have had a negative impact at  
this point, especially as population growth brings more buyers to the  
market compensating for the fewer first home buyers.

There were 161 auctions reported today of which 134 sold and 27 were  
passed in, 17 of those passed in on a vendors bid.

The REIV expects just over 350 auctions next weekend.

Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV

TOTAL AUCTIONS


This week: 161
Yesterday: 0
Last weekend: 69
This weekend last year: 99


S Sold at Auction: 97
SB Sold before Auction: 36
SA Sold after Auction: 1

Passed in: 27
Passed in on vendor's bid: 17

Clearance rate: 82%

Postponed: 0
Withdrawn: 2
Auctions with no result: 22

PS Private Sales: 709

Total Volume (Auctions): $75.05mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $313.17mil

Total Auctions Houses: 113
Clearance Rate: 88%
Median Price: $560,000

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 43
Clearance Rate: 74%
Median Price: $545,000

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 5
Clearance Rate: 40%
Median Price: $361,000

patricb

Weekly Auction & Sales Results, Market Overview
Sunday 14 February 2010




Results from this weekends auctions show that demand continues to be very strong with a clearance rate of 85% per cent recorded from 395 reported auctions.



This is the strongest result on this weekend in the past 5 years and highlights the overall lack of supply. Stock levels will increase over the coming weeks -  to around 1000 in a fortnight - however there is a underlying issue with the number of homes on offer for sale.



Low stock levels have two impacts, high clearance rates and higher prices as multiple parties compete at auctions.



There were 395 auctions reported, of which 333 sold and 61 were passed in, 34 of those on a vendor's bid. The REIV also received reports of 785 homes sold by private sale over the week.



Enzo Raimondo

CEO REIV









TOTAL AUCTIONS


This week: 395
Last weekend: 166
This time last year: 246

S Sold at Auction: 233
SB Sold before Auction: 100
SA Sold after Auction: 1

Passed in: 61
Passed in on vendor's bid: 34

Clearance rate: 85%

Postponed: 0
Withdrawn: 1
Auctions with no result: 31

PS Private Sales: 785

Total Volume (Auctions): $228.9mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $334.5mil

Total Auctions Houses: 258
Clearance Rate: 85%
Median Price: $685,000
Total Value: $162,394,900

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 122
Clearance Rate: 89%
Median Price: $505,000
Total Value: $62,348,808

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 8
Clearance Rate: 50%
Median Price: $1,148,500
Total Value: $4,159,000

USX

REIV的统计和Auction Porperty Monitor 的统计相差很大额，比如上周末，REIV说达到85%,但是后者却只有64%，这个相差也太大了
http://www.homepriceguide.com.au ... sults/melbourne.pdf

patricb

澳洲这里各个出处的数字差异是很大，也只能盯着一个纵向比较一下，横向的就乱了

jo_gugu

在澳洲，
根据你的预算和要求，
闭着眼买也不会有啥问题。

victorqu

个人一直关注着REIV的数据，感觉它有造假的可能。
本年度第一二个交易周，也就是2月的前两周，它原先报道都是百来套的交易量，清空率85+%。
第三周，它一开始预报一千多套的交易量，后来实际只报道了700套左右，清空率85%。然后回头去看上一周的数据，交易量居然变成300多套了。

北风

请问具体是那几个周？有日期吗？

个人觉得不太可能
REIV的数据不是只有星期天更新，它后面是持续更新的
因为有些数据得到的晚，甚至1-2周以后

原帖由 victorqu 于 24/2/2010 08:29 发表
个人一直关注着REIV的数据，感觉它有造假的可能。
本年度第一二个交易周，也就是2月的前两周，它原先报道都是百来套的交易量，清空率85+%。
第三周，它一开始预报一千多套的交易量，后来实际只报道了700套左右，清 ...

chriswxy

原帖由 victorqu 于 2010-2-24 09:29 发表
个人一直关注着REIV的数据，感觉它有造假的可能。
本年度第一二个交易周，也就是2月的前两周，它原先报道都是百来套的交易量，清空率85+%。
第三周，它一开始预报一千多套的交易量，后来实际只报道了700套左右，清 ...

统计学嘛,就是三分统计,七分估计.
国内外都一样.

patricb

Sunday 21 February 2010

Results this weekend have surpassed this time last year and provide a  
further indication that demand for residential property has not  
abated over January. This weekend last year saw 437 auctions and a
clearance rate of 77 per cent, compared to 85 per cent this weekend.

There were 711 auctions reported this week of which 450 sold at auction,
152 Sold Before Auction and a further 109 properties passed in.

The clearance rate was 85 per cent, a result that continues the trend  
established in the last six months of 2009. There were also 677
private sales reported.

Next weekend the REIV expects just under 1000 auctions.

Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV




TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 711
Last weekend: 390
This time last year: 437

S Sold at Auction: 450
SB Sold before Auction: 152
SA Sold after Auction: 0

Passed in: 109
Passed in on vendor's bid: 59

Clearance rate: 85%

Postponed: 2
Withdrawn: 0
Auctions with no result: 64

PS Private Sales: 677

Total Volume (Auctions): $469.05mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $322.64mil

Total Auctions Houses: 464
Clearance Rate: 86%
Median Price: $730,500
Total Value: $343,026,418

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 236
Clearance Rate: 82%
Median Price: $520,000
Total Value: $119,820,050

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 11
Clearance Rate: 73%
Median Price: $670,000
Total Value: $6,204,500

点石成金

原帖由 teltell 于 2009-12-7 11:05 发表
讨论房价问题的人都是没有什么生活经验的人。

讨论房价问题的人都是没有什么生活乐趣的人。

patricb

我倒是没有观察得这么仔细。不过我觉得这种数据确实只能参考一下，倒不一定是造假，但其准确程度是很难讲，因为它也要依靠中介公司提供信息，中介公司又难免有时耍些小伎俩，再说REIV本身又算不上第三方独立机构。

sunflowerseed

原帖由 patricb 于 2010-2-25 11:40 发表
我倒是没有观察得这么仔细。不过我觉得这种数据确实只能参考一下，倒不一定是造假，但其准确程度是很难讲，因为它也要依靠中介公司提供信息，中介公司又难免有时耍些小伎俩，再说REIV本身又算不上第三方独立机构。

正解. 以前我就发现过一套本来想参加AUDCIOTN的房子成交价格多报了. 因为有事没去成, 上网查成交价, 再打电话确认发现的. 可见AGENT报的数据的准确性值得怀疑.

patricb

Sunday 28 February 2010

As the number of homes on offer at auction has increased each weekend this month the clearance rate has not varied to a great extent.

The weekend's results remove any lingering doubts about the depth of demand in 2010. Buyers are very confident at the moment and find they have to compete to get the home that they want, which is leading to higher prices than expected and high clearance rates.

The clearance rate this weekend  was 87 per cent from 967 reported auctions.
There were 838 homes sold and 129 passed in, 71 of those passed in on a vendor's bid.

Auction numbers reduce next weekend due to the Labour Day holiday, to around 250 and then they increase the following weekend to around 730.

Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 967
Last weekend: 720
This time last year: 587

S Sold at Auction: 661
SB Sold before Auction: 174
SA Sold after Auction: 3


Passed in: 129
Passed in on vendor's bid: 71

Clearance rate: 87%

Postponed: 2
Withdrawn: 0
Auctions with no result: 93

PS Private Sales: 715

Total Volume (Auctions): $701.41mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $324.1mil
Total Auctions Houses: 615
Clearance Rate: 86%
Median Price: $810,000
Total Value: $510,761,450

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 334
Clearance Rate: 88%
Median Price: $535,000
Total Value: $179,458,601

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 15
Clearance Rate: 80%
Median Price: $320,000
Total Value: $6,194,000

[ 本帖最后由 patricb 于 2010-3-3 09:32 编辑 ]

patricb

Sunday 7 March 2010

The number of auctions this weekend was lower than last weekend due to the Labour day holiday. From the result it is clear that buyers were not concerned about the interest rate increase, they came out in force and demand remained strong.

The clearance rate was 87 percent, a significantly higher result than last year when it was 75 per cent and in 2008 when it was 66 per cent.

There were 238 auctions reported this weekend of which a total of 208 sold and 30 passed in, 15 of those passed in on a vendor's bid.

Buyers who missed out this weekend will have plenty of opportunities as there around 2500 auctions in the next 3 weekends.

Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 238
Last week: 970
This time last year: 134

S Sold at Auction: 152
SB Sold before Auction: 52
SA Sold after Auction: 4


Passed in: 30
Passed in on vendor's bid: 15

Clearance rate: 87%

Postponed: 1
Withdrawn: 0
Auctions with no result: 40

PS Private Sales: 686

Total Volume (Auctions): $131.07mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $313.11mil


Total Auctions Houses: 155
Clearance Rate: 85%
Median Price: $642,500
Total Value: $91,737,500

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 76


Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 76
Clearance Rate: 93%
Median Price: $515,000
Total Value: $37,723,800

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 7
Clearance Rate: 71%
Median Price: $357,000
Total Value: $1,610,000

t_guoguo

Clearance rate: 87%

Gelen

楼主有没有保存每个礼拜的销售结果（pdf文档）？

t_guoguo

原帖由 Gelen 于 2010-3-12 11:13 发表
楼主有没有保存每个礼拜的销售结果（pdf文档）？

以前一个网页上有所有区的结果 ctrl+C ctrl+v就搞定了
现在要一个区一个区点进去看

patricb

Sunday March 21st 2010

If demand is maintained at this level next weekend 2010 will have recorded the strongest pre-Easter market ever.

On this weekend there were 884 auctions reported of which 769 sold and 115 were passed in on a vendors bid, of those 67 were passed in on a vendors bid.

The clearance rate was 87 per cent, which means this weekend was substantially better than the same weekend last year when a low 341 auctions were reported with a clearance rate of 75 per cent.

The total value of auction sales this weekend and private sales reported since Monday was $957 mil.

Next weekend is highly likely to record a new record in terms of the financial value of homes sold with around 1076 auctions scheduled to occur.

Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 884
Last weekend:  663
This time last year: 341

S Sold at Auction: 623
SB Sold before Auction: 145
SA Sold after Auction: 1
PI Passed in: 115
VB Passed in on vendor's bid: 67

Clearance rate: 87%

Postponed: 0
Withdrawn: 2
Auctions with no result: 63

PS Private Sales: 748

Total Volume (Auctions): $622.36mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $334.71mil

Total Auctions Houses: 603
Clearance Rate: 88%
Median Price: $770,000
Total Value: $481,363,580

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 277
Clearance Rate: 85%
Median Price: $538,000
Total Value: $138,593,675

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 4
Clearance Rate: 100%
Median Price: $481,500
Total Value: $2,401,000

patricb

原帖由 Gelen 于 2010-3-12 11:13 发表
楼主有没有保存每个礼拜的销售结果（pdf文档）？

存了几个星期就坚持不下去，现在只能坚持贴这个了，至少以后可以回顾一下。

sylviaqian

漏了2个星期

sylviaqian

Sunday April 11th 2010

The clearance rate from this weekend’s 488 auctions was 85 per cent, a strong result that is consistent with the year to date clearance rate of 85 per cent.

It is interesting that in two out of the last three years demand and results from residential auctions have improved in the two months after Easter, the only exception was in 2008 when demand cooled as a result of oversupply and interest rates. There is no indication of any softening of demand this year.

This weekend last year was Easter so results are not really comparable and on this weekend in 2008 there were 605 auctions and a clearance rate of 63 per cent.

There were 488 auctions reported this weekend of which 324 sold and 75 were passed in, 42 of those passed in on a vendors bid. There were 855 private sales reported.

Compared to the last few years listings for the next few weeks are very strong, nearly double what they were this time last year. Buyers have choice but will face competition.

Common perception may be for buyer’s interest to cool off in the face of projected interest rate increases however that perception does not take into account the underlying factors driving the market – a significant gap between the housing needs of our growing population and our ability to provide them the homes they need to live in.



Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 488
Last weekend:  42
This time last year: 68

S Sold at Auction: 324
SB Sold before Auction: 86
SA Sold after Auction: 3

Passed in: 75
Passed in on vendor's bid: 42

Clearance rate: 85%

Postponed: 1
Withdrawn: 0

PS Private Sales: 855

Total Volume (Auctions): $272.42mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $421.45mil

Total Auctions Houses: 290
Clearance Rate: 83%
Median Price: $641,000
Total Value: $172,434,500

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 188
Clearance Rate: 87%
Median Price: $530,000
Total Value: $96,030,000

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 10
Clearance Rate: 90%
Median Price: $267,500
Total Value: $3,953,100

patricb

Sunday April 18th 2010


The REIV March quarter Property Update demonstrated the health of the residential auction market with the median price of houses sold at auction increasing by 4.4 per cent to $720,000 compared to a 2 per cent increase for those sold by private sale. The same conditions were apparent in the unit and apartment market where the median for those sold by auction increased by 3.5 per cent compared to 2.6 per cent for those sold by private sale.

The clearance rate this weekend was 84 per cent which compares very well to this weekend last year when 437 auctions were held and a clearance rate of 78 per cent was recorded.

There were 875 auctions reported today of which 739 sold and 136 were passed in, 74 of those on a vendor's bid.  There have now been twice as many homes sold by auction as this time in 2009.

Auctions numbers dip to 476 next weekend due to Anzac Day before rising again to 840 the weekend after.


Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 875
Last weekend:  492
This time last year: 437



S Sold at Auction: 605
SB Sold before Auction: 132
SA Sold after Auction: 2

Passed in: 136
Passed in on vendor's bid: 74

Clearance rate: 84%

Postponed: 8
Withdrawn: 0

PS Private Sales: 749


Total Volume (Auctions): $548.74mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $354.28mil

Total Auctions Houses: 557
Clearance Rate: 85%
Median Price: $712,250
Total Value: $380,726,738

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 303
Clearance Rate: 85%
Median Price: $558,000
Total Value: $151,147,329

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 14
Clearance Rate: 71%
Median Price: $542,500
Total Value: $16,110,000

北风

恭喜patricb啊

[ 本帖最后由 北风 于 2010-4-19 10:42 编辑 ]

飘啊飘

我记得你以前的帖子里有贴上来的成交价格，能否接着贴？我很需要
非常感谢!

小石子

17日 悉尼的 拍卖清空率才71%