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XIAOXIAO123

楼主太孤陋寡闻了 ... 还真的不是中介在炒作 现在市场就是这样 供需决定啊

doule

1. LZ能讲一下房价上涨下跌和比特币的关系么
2. LZ能讲一下未来五年房价肯定下跌 主要原因就是中国房价下跌 那么中国国情和澳洲国情的比较关系么
3. LZ 能讲一下澳洲房价下跌的具体原因么 无论宏观微观都可以 而不是一味的喊 肯定下跌 肯定上涨？

jxyzy

LZ 只不过让大家在这种市场火爆的情况下谨慎而已，因为一大批以次充好，速度建起来赶在好时光里卖掉的房子如雨后春笋般出现了。

猎豹

您能告知是哪个建筑公司贷款300亿吗？

ozchn

XIAOXIAO123 发表于 2014-3-4 18:35
楼主太孤陋寡闻了 ... 还真的不是中介在炒作 现在市场就是这样 供需决定啊  ...

还真是他们，我指的中介更偏向与直接和建筑商签约的中介，还组织什么买房团来澳置业，更有的中介直接和旅游中介合作，这样的抢购，我没有说大妈控制了澳洲的市场，我只是认为被他们搅乱了市场应有的秩序。

ayzlgs

涨跌互现

ozchn

doule 发表于 2014-3-4 18:36
1. LZ能讲一下房价上涨下跌和比特币的关系么
2. LZ能讲一下未来五年房价肯定下跌 主要原因就是中国房价下 ...

看了你第一个问题，剩下的都不用看了，你还怎么把比特币和房子扯上的？有点厉害

ozchn

猎豹 发表于 2014-3-4 19:09
您能告知是哪个建筑公司贷款300亿吗？

自己Google ，我想关键字会打哦？

ozchn

jxyzy 发表于 2014-3-4 18:59
LZ 只不过让大家在这种市场火爆的情况下谨慎而已，因为一大批以次充好，速度建起来赶在好时光里卖掉的房子 ...

感谢你的统一中心思想！

中间人

ozchn 发表于 2014-3-4 19:46
看了你第一个问题，剩下的都不用看了，你还怎么把比特币和房子扯上的？有点厉害 ...

不是你先扯上比特币的吗?

考拉喝水

都什么理由。这帖子居然能火，标题的功劳

ozchn

中间人 发表于 2014-3-4 19:49
不是你先扯上比特币的吗?

昏，我看到太阳落山了，觉得澳洲房价会跌，然后你要让我说说太阳落山和房价的关系？引用那个事件只是因为之前不是很多人看好他的市场吗？可是来的就是那么突然。

ozchn

考拉喝水 发表于 2014-3-4 19:50
都什么理由。这帖子居然能火，标题的功劳

对头！

future1026

问题是不买房子，钱存银行还要多交税

ozchn

future1026 发表于 2014-3-4 19:56
问题是不买房子，钱存银行还要多交税

说的也对哦…赞一个！

doule

中间人 发表于 2014-3-4 19:49
不是你先扯上比特币的吗?

LZ考虑事情没有逻辑 打一枪换一个地方 觉得比特币之前那么火都跌 房子现在也这么火 肯定也下跌 言下之意就是用房子来类比比特币 这个逻辑 这个脑子 这哪说理去...... 反正我佩服...

yingm

拭目以待

weedoo

两边都有道理，

ozforever

ozchn 发表于 2014-3-4 17:39
可能我的表达不是那么清楚，大概意思是，建筑人工没有涨，建筑成本在降低，康嫂，地价等涨，那么楼花的价 ...

your answer has nothing to do with my question. private message me your contact details. I want to build.

linz86

说澳洲房价会跌，我忍了；但是中国房价会跌，那是不可能的！尤其北上广绝对要坚挺。不然中国要大乱了。只要中国继续这样有价无市，澳洲房价是很难回落的。

再说了，如果澳洲房价大跌，中印韩三国大妈们肯定会抄个底什么的。
所以还是别幻想抄底了。。。

znxx

澳洲人口增长很快, 根据ABS每一分钟多出生一个,每三分钟死去一个, 加上澳洲需要大量移民来支持老年化的问题. .未来10-20年人口只会大幅度增长. 现在很多家庭都有好几个小孩, 这些小孩长大了不都得要买房子, 人多当然需求就多.sydney新房建的速度赶不上人口增加的速度.供不应求...供>求, 价格当然涨了,怎么会下降呢?  普通家庭10万收入养个100万的房子真的不难啊..10年还不完,就15年还, 15年还不了就30年还啊..

znxx

ABS:
    one birth every 1 minute and 41 seconds,
    one death every 3 minutes and 32 seconds ,
    a net gain of one international migration every 2 minutes and 10 seconds, leading to
    an overall total population increase of one person every 1 minute and 18 seconds .

lui_gi

znxx 发表于 2014-3-4 21:46
ABS:
    one birth every 1 minute and 41 seconds,
    one death every 3 minutes and 32 seconds ,

The problem is:

Is there enough job?

Is it sustainable?

Will some where else become more attractive than Australia? At least a better investment opportunity than Australian Property market?

ozchn

znxx 发表于 2014-3-4 21:43
澳洲人口增长很快, 根据ABS每一分钟多出生一个,每三分钟死去一个, 加上澳洲需要大量移民来支持老年化的问题 ...

足迹里面多点像你这样讲点斯文话语的多好啊，其实啊，我觉得官方数据始终是官方的，官方说工人最低收入多少，可是实际根本没有达到，官方罗列的什么人均收入等等，平心而论是那么回事吗？官方说取消就取消，官方说放松就放松，玩弄的始终是老百姓啊。足迹不是还人均收入20W ，你信吗？我反正不信

wws2013

jxyzy 发表于 2014-3-4 17:31
上图，牵涉到人家隐私。希望不要人肉，谢谢

谢谢！看了你的图，我看到过这类房子，house也有的，在国内就经常听预制板。地震中的杀手，比砖木结构的房子危险的多

而且这种房子一看，感觉很廉价啊

znxx

lui_gi 发表于 2014-3-4 21:52
The problem is:

Is there enough job?

Regardless of whether there is enough job or not, there are always people can afford to buy a shelter as basic necessity of human being. And always have lots people who can not afford to buy a house now looking to rent - including those people who do not have jobs and relying on centrelink. We don't know and can not predict what will happen to job market or whether there is another country become more attractive than Australia in terms of investment property in future - but we do know that in 60 years time or sooner, Australia population will DOUBLE. (Sydney and Melbourne take the lead). These people need shelters - either to buy or to rent. With double the population (hence demand), and limited space( hence supply) in Sydney, it will be very hard for price to go down.  

And yes, there will be always people who can afford whatever the market price it is at that time. Some of these people inherit from their ancestor's accumulated assets when their parents or grandparents pass away. Some of these people accumulated their wealth by renting and working for many years. For those people who can not afford - either moving to further west or keep renting until they can one day and these people will in turn support the property market.  

znxx

ozchn 发表于 2014-3-4 22:12
足迹里面多点像你这样讲点斯文话语的多好啊，其实啊，我觉得官方数据始终是官方的，官方说工人最低收入多 ...

ABS做人口数据还是可信的.这个数据没什么可做假的.

lui_gi

znxx 发表于 2014-3-4 22:46
Regardless of whether there is enough job or not, there are always people can afford to buy a shel ...

Take it easy.   :)

I am agree with you on huge demand on property in the near future provided that Australia is having a population growth rate of 1.6% for about 44 years. By then the population will double. But all of that is based on an ASSUMPTION that the population will continue to grow in such a relatively high rate.

You have answered me that if the population grows high, the need in property will increase. That is a very obvious and simple principle that elementary school student can work out.

My question is why everybody is so sure that the number of immigration will keep growing even if the condition is not as appealing as today or country like China and India starts catching up. Because of the culture barrier, people may be more and more reluctant to move their whole family to Australia. For example, a lot of young people I know from Hongkong choose to go back rather to stay in Australia.

Sure I don't think I have the answer. But why are you so confident that in 40 - 50 years of time people will continue to come.

That is my question again,

Is the growth rate sustainable?

theforest

让房价再飞一会

wilson21st

还是看供需吧，看租房市场吧，，好区，像华人热门校区房，传统好区，99%不会跌，5年10年回过头来看也都是那样。。所谓的泡沫是那些需要炒作起来的apartment，供需链相对松散，一旦哪一环出问题都会受影响。