关于房价的思考和疑惑

lxjcy

简单说两句，感觉明年澳洲房价会维持目前高位运行的态势，但上涨下跌幅度均有限，应该在＋－5％内。澳洲汇率应该在0。8—0。95区间内震荡运行。不认为澳元会破1。

可能

慢喽。。。。。

patricb

Sunday 25 October 2009





This weekend has more auctions scheduled than any other weekend this year yet the clearance rate has so far remained consistent with the last 5 months - above 80 per cent.



This is an indication of the depth of demand, a factor of confidence in the economy and the cities increasing population.



It also suggests that pressure on prices is likely to continue between now and Christmas.

There were 882 auctions reported this weekend of which 670 sold resulting in a clearance rate of 82 per cent.



There were 160 homes passed in, of which 90 were passed in on a vendors bid.

The REIV expects around 380 auctions next weekend.


Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV
TOTAL AUCTIONS
This week: 882
This weekend last month: 136
This weekend last year: 942

CLEARANCE RATES: 82%
This weekend last year: 53%

Postponed: 2
Withdrawn: 0
Non-reported Count: 74

PS Private Sales: 741

Total Volume (Auctions): $583.28mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $323.76mil

Total Auctions Houses: 623
Clearance Rate: 83%
Median Price: $770,500

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 250
Clearance Rate: 80%
Median Price: $510,500

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 9
Clearance Rate: 67%
Median Price: $570,000

patricb

Sunday 1 November 2009

Demand at this weekend's residential auctions has been very healthy and is consistent with the past 24 weekends when a clearance rate of 80 per cent or more has been achieved.

There have been 339 auctions reported to the REIV, of which a total of 278 sold and 58 were passed in. The clearance rate is 83 per cent. Of the homes passed in, 31 were passed in on a vendors bid.

Auction numbers will increase over the next few weeks following this brief dip in listings due to the Melbourne Cup.



Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV


TOTAL AUCTIONS


This week: 339
Last weekend: 837
This time last year: 170


S Sold at Auction: 214
SB Sold before Auction: 63
SA Sold after Auction: 0
Passed in: 55
Passed in on vendor's bid: 28

Clearance rate: 83%

Postponed: 1
Withdrawn: 2
Auctions with no result: 54

PS Private Sales: 704

Total Volume (Auctions): $180.42mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $335.52mil

Total Auctions Houses: 219
Clearance Rate: 85%
Median Price: $608,000

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 107
Clearance Rate: 79%
Median Price: $469,000

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 6
Clearance Rate: 83%
Median Price: $388,000

[ 本帖最后由 patricb 于 2009-11-2 11:27 编辑 ]

飘啊飘

挣钱的速度赶不上房子上涨的速度。

飘啊飘

谢谢楼主！
继续关注！

patricb

Sunday 8 November 2009

There were a total of 522 auctions reported to the REIV this weekend along
with 600 private sales. The clearance rate was 81%, with a total of
422 homes offered at auction selling. Of the 100 homes passed in, 65
of those were passed in on a vendors bid.
It is normally the case that there is an increase in the number of
homes offered at auction around this time of the year and that is
certainly the case this year with another 2,400 auctions expected
over the next three weekends, providing purchasers with a greater
range of choices and opportunities.



Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV


TOTAL AUCTIONS


This week: 522
Last Weekend: 338
This weekend last year: 568


S Sold at Auction: 326
SB Sold before Auction: 92
SA Sold after Auction: 4

Passed in: 100
Passed in on vendor's bid: 65

Clearance rate: 81%

Postponed: 0
Withdrawn: 1
Auctions with no result: 52

PS Private Sales: 600

Total Volume (Auctions): $281mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $285.28mil

Total Auctions Houses: 354
Clearance Rate: 78%
Median Price: $665,000

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 159
Clearance Rate: 89%
Median Price: $485,250

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 9
Clearance Rate: 56%
Median Price: $451,000

patricb

已经连续25周拍卖clearence rate高过80％了， 大家预测一下什么时候能跌破80％。根据上面REIV的估计，接下来三周是拍卖集中的高峰期，会不会机会大一点？

caryn

patricb

Weekly Auction & Sales Results, Market Overview
Saturday 14 November 2009





This weekend the number of homes sold by private sale has surpassed this time in 2007, a fact that highlights the strong results achieved in that segment of the market this year.

The clearance rate was 81 per cent today, the  27th weekend in a row it has been 80 per cent or more.

There were 714 auctions reported to the REIV of which a total of 576 sold. There were 138 homes passed in of which 80 were passed in on a vendors bid.

Another indication of the high levels of competition at auctions this year has been the very low numbers of homes selling after (half this time last year), but on the day of the auction.

The REIV expects just over 1800 auctions over the next fortnight.




Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV


TOTAL AUCTIONS


This week: 714
Last Weekend: 503
This weekend last year: 715

S Sold at Auction: 456
SB Sold before Auction: 114
SA Sold after Auction: 6

Passed in: 138
Passed in on vendor's bid: 80

Clearance rate: 81%



Postponed: 0
Withdrawn: 0
Auctions with no result: 71

PS Private Sales: 716

Total Volume (Auctions): $426.59mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $330.41mil

Total Auctions Houses: 507
Clearance Rate: 80%
Median Price: $710,000

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 193
Clearance Rate: 82%
Median Price: $476,000

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 13
Clearance Rate: 62%
Median Price: $670,500

语阁

圣诞节期间，房源更少了，也是交易的清淡期。看明年3月份以后的情况

edith921

原帖由 语阁 于 2009-11-16 09:55 发表
圣诞节期间，房源更少了，也是交易的清淡期。看明年3月份以后的情况

是呀~前两个月周六跑出去看房，每个时间段还得挑一下看哪个房
就１４号这个周六，一整天就看了三个，吃了老长一个午饭

北风

现在已经连续27周拍卖clearance rate高于80%
半年了
高烧不退
烧得太久，会有伤害的

xiaozhangyu

先顶1下LZ的总结分享， 毕竟归纳了很多
我说几点，赞同的给我点分，不赞同的，也没关系（意在交流）

澳洲3大投资产业， 房地产、澳元、 股票， 这3个我只参与第一类（中长线），另2类（或短或中，与其说投资不如说投机更确实），没卖关子，因为经济高涨，这3个行业势必高涨。
08年底--09年初的，经济危机，澳洲虽然没有受次贷危机影响，和oz金融体系牢固很大关系，但是，随即的也是不少投资者迅速退出这个投资市场，澳元跌至（1：4。x人民币），地产业也陷入低迷（房价低，买房人少），股票更不用说了。

回到房地产这个话题，也是关注的焦点，它的跌体现在2方面，就是投资类房地产和自住类地产。。投资人遇到经济前景不明朗，撤资卖房是理所当然的； 自住类用户群体也抱着很多观点，能否在跌，或者，是否负担的起（经济危机期间的失业问题加剧）。。
但是，2个方面的跌势有所体现不同：投资类房产主要是以60-80万以上，百万级以上的，其跌幅幅度很大，甚至40-50%； 而自住类的，50万以下房产基本上跌幅都是在10-20%内不等。

xiaozhangyu

经过政府发布的经济数据， 以first home buyer grant的奖金提高为政府干预手段的出台，最大的刺激的对象就是自住类用户， 这些人有分为2大群体，移民类和local，移民包括商业、技术，这些移民人士毕竟口袋里揣着些钱，加上遇到这个政策，而地产的低价位，一拍即合，50万以下的房产迅速生机勃勃而复燃。

但是，政府数据显示有望走出经济危机，可是热衷投资类房产的投资者还是会很谨慎，所以，高价位的房产会回升，但是是个和缓过程，一旦各种大环境数据和本国经济确实站稳，回到原来基点再继续攀高也是正常的。

现在，我觉得观察各种数据莫过于以下：
1、 失业率。 针对自住类房产人士，或50万以下房产的走向，看这个数据， 一旦失业率走高，人们失去了工作机会，就是失去了抵押贷款的能力，随即这些房产的销售转让就会有所缓和。。价位也会有所停滞。。
2、 银行利率。如果按照流传的，明年继续加2%，那么，买房的人也会有所谨慎，至少我会这样。

其他的因素，我不是不考虑，例如，商业移民剧增，买房能力雄厚，可是，引入商业移民数量完全是政府的政策控制和经济导向，国家队商业移民的目的主要不是提高房地产价格，而是让这类群体为澳洲创造更多的税收和就业机会。

来个总结：
关注房地产的走势，还是看2头， 50万以下房产关注就业率； 60万以上投资型则以银行利率和消费数据。

完

patricb

Sunday 22 November 2009
The 2009 residential auction market is in the home stretch, with just four weekends left.

This time represents the best opportunity for buyers to find a home, with just over 3000 properties already scheduled to go under the hammer. Next weekend has a record number of auctions scheduled for 2009.
This weekend, there were 735 auction results reported, with a total 593 selling, resulting in a clearance rate of 81 per cent.

This is in line with the year to date clearance rate of 81 per cent.

Of the 142 homes passed in, 95 were passed in on a vendor bid.

The strong private sale market continued, with 685 homes reported sold this week.





Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV


TOTAL AUCTIONS


This week: 735
Last Weekend: 72
This weekend last year: 659

S Sold at Auction: 480
SB Sold before Auction: 112
SA Sold after Auction: 1

Passed in: 142
Passed in on vendor's bid: 95

Clearance rate: 81%

Postponed: 1
Withdrawn: 2
Auctions with no result: 47

PS Private Sales: 685

Total Volume (Auctions): $445mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $306.78mil

Total Auctions Houses: 506
Clearance Rate: 79%
Median Price: $712,500

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 218
Clearance Rate: 85%
Median Price: $493,000

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 9
Clearance Rate: 67%
Median Price: $582,500

patricb

Sunday 29 November 2009




As a result of the substantial increase in the number of auctions held this weekend, the balance shifted slightly back towards buyers with a clearance rate of 78% being recorded.
Due to higher stock levels at this time of the year, it is typical for buyers to have a better opportunity to secure the home of their choice.

There were 1046 auctions reported to the REIV this weekend of which a total 816 sold.

Of the 230 homes passed in, 145 were passed in on a vendors bid.

A total of 751 private sales were reported this week.

There are around 2,500 auctions scheduled on the three remaining weekends before Christmas.

Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV



TOTAL AUCTIONS


This week: 1046
Last weekend: 739
This time last year: 861

S Sold at Auction: 657
SB Sold before Auction: 155
SA Sold after Auction: 4

Passed in: 230
Passed in on vendor's bid: 145

Clearance rate: 78%

Postponed: 2
Withdrawn: 2
Auctions with no result: 85

PS Private Sales: 751

Total Volume (Auctions): $612.56mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $330.43mil

Total Auctions Houses: 722
Clearance Rate: 78%
Median Price: $722,000

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 297
Clearance Rate: 77%
Median Price: $502,250

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 26
Clearance Rate: 81%
Median Price: $566,000

patricb

First time in recent months, that clearence rate is below 80%.

patricb

Sunday 6 December 2009




The residential auction market improved slightly this weekend with the clearance rate reaching 82 per cent compared to 78 per cent last weekend.


The interest rate rise during the week appears to have had little effect on the demand at auctions.  This is not a surprise as anyone buying or selling today will have either built the increase into their expectations or be committed to the process.



There were 905 auctions reported to the REIV this weekend of which a total of 736 sold and 167 were passed in, 97 of those on a vendors bid.



This weekend’s result will provide vendors over the next two weekends with a high degree of confidence.



There is expected to be a new record number of auctions on next weekend with just under 1100 scheduled followed by just under 600 the weekend before Christmas.





Enzo Raimondo

CEO REIV



TOTAL AUCTIONS


This week: 905
Last weekend: 996
This time last year: 711

S Sold at Auction: 736
SB Sold before Auction: 139
SA Sold after Auction: 3

Passed in: 167
Passed in on vendor's bid: 97

Clearance rate: 82%

Postponed: 2
Withdrawn: 0
Auctions with no result: 134

PS Private Sales: 778

Total Volume (Auctions): $518.1mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $350.67mil

Total Auctions Houses: 597
Clearance Rate: 82%
Median Price: $712,500

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 263
Clearance Rate: 83%
Median Price: $482,000

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 11
Clearance Rate: 91%
Median Price: $275,000

语阁

目前根本没看出房价停止上涨的势头，还是疯呀。

max2oz

房价贵或涨，我不懂。就明白一个道理，如果总有人接盘，房价不会跌。就好比国内，有这么帮温州人再贵的也会买。澳洲的中国人蜂拥而至，都是要买房的，不会跌啦。这个世界有中国人在，就像鲶鱼效应，总会折腾，有折腾就有机会。

[ 本帖最后由 max2oz 于 2009-12-7 10:27 编辑 ]

lovesunday

房价不会跌.拿最低工资的也买的起,就不会跌.

teltell

讨论房价问题的人都是没有什么生活经验的人。

max2oz

这棍子打的有点厉害，有生活经验的人讨论什么，我好学习一下。多谢

cgz

刚买了房子，现在最怕的就是房价掉了

zxart

刚买好，随便它涨跌，澳洲我只允许自己买一套自己住住。

patricb

Forgot to post last week's

patricb

Sunday 20 December 2009

This weekend’s auctions continued the well-established trend of strong demand and good results over the last 8 months with a clearance rate of 83 per cent recorded from the 629 reported results.

There were a total of 520 homes sold at auction and 109 were passed in, 60 of which were passed in on a vendor's bid.

This weekend’s sales effectively brings to an end the year for residential property sales and 2009 will be looked back on as a very strong one, second only to 2007.

A straw poll of estate agents on Saturday showed a high level of confidence for 2010 with 26 per cent responding that the next 6 months would be stronger than the last six and 61 per cent thought it would be the same. There were 109 responses.

The overall clearance rate will be 81 per cent from just over 22,570 residential auctions. The total value of residential auction sales will be just over $12.1B compared to $10.2B in 2008.


Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV


TOTAL AUCTIONS


This week: 629
Yesterday: 10
Last Sunday: 42
This weekend last month: 739
This weekend last year: 258

S Sold at Auction: 405
SB Sold before Auction: 108
SA Sold after Auction: 7

Passed in: 109
Passed in on vendor's bid: 60

Clearance rate: 83%

Postponed: 2
Withdrawn: 0
Auctions with no result: 51

PS Private Sales: 778

Total Volume (Auctions): $320.27mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $351.76mil

Total Auctions Houses: 418
Clearance Rate: 82%
Median Price: $597,750

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 199
Clearance Rate: 84%
Median Price: $475,750

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 12
Clearance Rate: 92%
Median Price: $300,000

北风

圣诞期间还有这么多房子卖
这么高的清空率
真吓人

MU

利息一上去。。就危险咯。。今年都一蜂窝的买，就怕不买亏了。。何必凑这热闹。。