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Scentre Group "Bouncing back… to lower occupancy" (Neutral) McCasker
Q3 update points to a recovery in foot traffic / collections but lower occupancy
SCG have indicated that 92% of stores are open and trading with more stores to open in coming weeks. Q3 rent collection of 85% includes rent collected prior periods so the better metric to focus on is YTD collections of 77%. 3,187 COVID arrangements (including SMEs and other) have been agreed with tenants, reflecting 89% of retailers. The key notable metric was occupancy of 98.4%, which deteriorated a further 40bps from June-20 and we expect to continue falling, leading to reduced leasing tension, lower rents and highlighting income uncertainty. Leasing activity year to date is running at 50-60% of a normal year or ~130,000 below prior years (ie the size of Westfield Bondi Junction). SCG quote gearing ex hybrids at 27.6%. From an ordinary security holder's perspective, taking into account capital that ranks ahead (including hybrids and property linked notes) gearing is 40% and ND/EBITDA is 8.2x.
Sales are varied but falling occupancy is the canary in the coalmine
By state Q3 specialty sales growth of -1.9% ranged widely: from -7.9% in NSW and -9.6% in NZ to +14.2% in WA and +10.5% in SA. While this points to a recovery in states with no community transmission of COVID, the forward looking key metric to focus on remains occupancy, which has deteriorated 90bps over the last two periods. We forecast occupancy decreasing by ~1.5% (an additional 60bps) though as this is concentrated in specialties this reflects ~4% of income. The consequence of this is less leasing tension for landlords:- we expect specialty rents to rebase ~20% lower over the next three years as SCG looks to maintain occupancy through rebasing rents lower.
What does it mean for FY20 FFO?
If current monthly collection rates continue to improve we expect collections will approach 92% in 2H2020. Adjusting for the $174m of rent recognised but not collected in 1H, NOI is running slightly below UBSe (~5% for 2H) and therefore we have downgraded FY20 FFO by 4%. SCG have not provided FY20 guidance.
Valuation: $2.40
Our price target of $2.40 reflects a property yield of 6.1%. Neutral rating.
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Central Coast 回來 - Boatshed, Lighthouse, Jetty (2015-1-4) silvia 
楼主:macro
发表于 2020-9-17 12:13
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