澳洲IPO讨论贴

vvguru

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2007-12-3 11:19 发表

农作物基本靠天吃饭。现在全球气候变化加剧。。。

那么直接买农作物 soft commodity 是不是比 农产品公司股票要好些？ 基本面也好，天气差的话更是要涨。

cpc

过来学习。。

Artcore

According to the ASX websites, www.asx.com.au, there are 270 new listings in the calendar year of 2007. However, even ASX makes mistake, I have picked 3 more companies listed during the year which was not included in its listing, Beadell Resources Ltd (BDR), Hexima Ltd (HXL), and KUth Energy (KEN). This makes total new listings to be 273 companies.

However, after a close scrutiny of these 273 companies, I have removed about a dozen companies from the list, as I do not consider them as a genuine IPO listing. These are either demerged companies spun off from another listed companies, or some other corporate restructure that do not require capital raising, sometimes is just a name change to be relisted.

For example, Crown Ltd (CWN) spun out from PBL, while it is a new listing, it was not an IPO in true sense. The relist of Macquarie Group Ltd, BBI EPS Ltd was set up by Babcock & Brown as part of purchase consideration for Alinta, and other similar corporate restructures was for my analysis to be excluded from the final list. The only exception I made was for demutualised of health fund NIB. The final number IPOs in 2007 is 260 companies.

I used close price of 31 December 2007 to assess the return. Out of 260 companies floated, 124 companies are trading above their issue prices, 126 companies are below the water, with 10 companies stayed at their issue price. So you have roughly 1 in 2 chances to make money.

Interestingly, if you sold your IPO shares on the 1st day of trading, 182/260=70% appreciated, with average return of a whooping, 44.84%, 17 remained steady or untraded; and 61 companies with negative return average of 11.80%, only 14 stocks depreciated more than 20% on the 1st day of trading.

With the assumption that if you could get into every single IPO, and then sold the shares on 1st day of trading, you will be making average of 28.62% return. If the average cycle of listings from taking subscription to your share disposal on the 1st day of trading takes 3 month, then annualised return is a whooping 114.48% return, fancy that performance as a fund manager. The year to date performance of all IPOs is average of 27.91%.

About 44 companies are in the energy / utilities sector, and 121 in metal / mining sector; or 165 (63.46%) companies combined (almost two thirds) have focus on resources / mining industries. They delivered an impressive average return of 44.04%. 8 biotech companies (-30.29%), 5 in healthcare equipment and services (23.68%); 6 IT companies (29.02%), 5 provides telecommunication/ ISP/ contents services (-24%). The industrial / capital good provides are often mining/resources industry related or focused. Most of these preformed very well in the IPO, 8/13 made an average return of 50.53%, the December listing has diluted average return for 13 companies to 28.86%, and I have included Metals Finance Corp (MFC) in the analysis.

An analysis on the timing of listing is very interesting. A whooping 51 companies were listed in the month of December to beat the Christmas/NY break. While 1st 3 months were quietest, only 11, 13 and 12 companies listed for Jan, Feb and March respectively. The August (21) market correction has reduced IPO activities for Sep and Oct to mere 15 and 16 respectively, compared to 30 and 25 companies listed in Jun and July. To analyse the monthly performance based on 1st day trading, of course August market crash which led September to be a miserable month for IPOs, with a mere average return of just 1.01% for 15 stocks, 7/15 made loss on debut. Whereas other months like January, February, April, October all delivered an attractive average return on 1st day of trading over 40%. December, August were flat months, delivered average return on 1st day of trading just 16.16% and 15.06% respectively.

The biggest float for 2007 is of course drilling contractor Boart Longyear (BLY), worth 2.335 billion, followed by RAMS (RHG) 695 million, Ellerston GEMS Fund (EGF) 600 million and Platinum Asset Management (PTM) 561 million. The smallest float was Metminco (MNC) 1.35 million. However, bigger does not necessarily mean better. 35 companies raised in excess of $50 million, delivered a dismal return of 4.41% on average. Whereas 108 companies raised $5 million or less, produced an impressive average return of 54.32%.

Finally, let’s have a look at IPO winners and losers in 2007.
Top 12 Star Floats in 2007 (All in the Mining & Minerals Industry except WHC in Energy (Coal) sector ASX Code|Issue Price|1st Day|31-Dec-07|Return (1st Day)|Return-Year End
WLF 0.20 0.84 2.15 320.00% 975.00%
CUR 0.25 0.62 2.03 148.00% 712.00%
RMT 0.25 0.85 1.8 240.00% 620.00%
YTC 0.25 0.77 1.25 208.00% 400.00%
DMM 0.20 0.3 0.93 50.00% 365.00%
PIM 0.20 0.58 0.9 190.00% 350.00%
CAV 0.20 0.26 0.9 30.00% 350.00%
NIP 0.20 0.22 0.85 10.00% 325.00%
TRJ 0.20 0.35 0.8 75.00% 300.00%
GXY 0.20 0.25 0.66 25.00% 230.00%
MAV 0.20 0.34 0.65 70.00% 225.00%
WHC 1.00 1.7 3.24 70.00% 224.00%

20 Dog Floats in 2007 (All have negative returns exceeding 50%)
ASX Code|Issue Price|1st Day|31-Dec-07|Return (1st Day)|Return-Year End
ENI 0.50 0.25 0.02 -50.00% -96.00%
RHG 2.50 2.49 0.295 -0.40% -88.20%
EOL 1.00 1.135 0.19 13.50% -81.00%
MRB 0.20 0.17 0.06 -15.00% -70.00%
AHI 3.81 3.96 1.35 3.94% -64.57%
HCG 0.20 0.135 0.071 -32.50% -64.50%
BVP 0.25 0.27 0.09 8.00% -64.00%
CCY 0.35 0.28 0.135 -20.00% -61.43%
LPM 0.20 0.22 0.086 10.00% -57.00%
IAW 0.50 0.38 0.22 -24.00% -56.00%
PUN 0.20 0.265 0.088 32.50% -56.00%
ROG 0.20 0.18 0.09 -10.00% -55.00%
LMP 0.20 0.21 0.09 5.00% -55.00%
EEE 0.35 0.3 0.16 -14.29% -54.29%
ACW 0.50 0.41 0.235 -18.00% -53.00%
AGU 0.20 0.16 0.095 -20.00% -52.50%
MNW 0.20 0.185 0.095 -7.50% -52.50%
CLD 0.20 0.16 0.099 -20.00% -50.50%
MSAS 1.00 1.02 0.5 2.00% -50.00%
AUQ 0.25 0.375 0.125 50.00% -50.00%

黑山老妖

原帖由 Artcore 于 1/5/2008 09:03 发表
I used close price of 31 December 2007 to assess the return. Out of 260 companies floated, 124 companies are trading above their issue prices, 126 companies are below the water, with 10 companies stayed at their issue price. So you have roughly 1 in 2 chances to make money.

Interestingly, if you sold your IPO shares on the 1st day of trading, 182/260=70% appreciated, with average return of a whooping, 44.84%, 17 remained steady or untraded; and 61 companies with negative return average of 11.80%, only 14 stocks depreciated more than 20% on the 1st day of trading.

看来应该搞个中国式的打新股基金。

Artcore

可惜不是所有的原始股你想买就能买到的，好的早给抢了。

不过今年的新股上市和去年比就差远了。

花生

这个如何？
Suncorp Metway Convertible Preference Shares
CommSec is pleased to present you with the opportunity to invest in Suncorp-Metway Ltd (Suncorp) Convertible Preference Shares (CPS). CPS are fully paid convertible preference shares issued directly by Suncorp.
CPS will have an issue price of $100 each, and the minimum order is 20 CPS ($2,000). Applications for more than 20 CPS must be in multiples of ten CPS ($1,000).


Key Features
Floating Rate DividendsDividend Rate calculated quarterly as sum of the Bank Bill Rate1 per annum plus a 3.2% per annum, together multiplied by (1 - tax rate).

Franked2 DividendsDividends on CPS are expected to be fully franked. If Dividends on CPS are not fully franked, the Dividends will be increased to compensate CPS Holders for the unfranked portion of the Dividend.
Preferred DividendsDividends on CPS will be paid in preference to dividends on Suncorp Ordinary Shares.
Investment Grade Credit Rating will apply3CPS have received investment grade credit ratings of 'A-' from Standard & Poor's and 'A-' from Fitch Ratings, and a provisional investment grade credit rating of 'A2' from Moody's.
To be quoted on ASX4CPS will be quoted on ASX under the code 'SUNPB'.

小小强

新的IPO 大家怎么看？

Ammonia investment opportunity: Burrup Holding Limited
CommSec is pleased to present you with the opportunity to subscribe for shares in the Initial Public Offer (the offer) of Burrup Holdings Limited (Burrup). Burrup is the only merchant ammonia producer in Australia, accounting for ~ 4% of the total world output of tradable ammonia, and is the largest regional merchant ammonia producer, accounting for ~ 30% of tradable ammonia in the Asia Pacific region.
The company's scale, capacity and access to low cost gas feedstock support Burrup's position as one of the lowest cost exporters into the high growth Asia Pacific region. The minimum subscription for shares in Burrup Holdings Limited is $2,000.

Key Features of the offer
Unique opportunity
One of the world's largest producing single train merchant ammonia plants and Australia's only merchant ammonia plant


20 year take-or-pay agreement for 100% of ammonia production with Yara, the largest trader of ammonia in the world


High barriers to entry

Attractive ammonia market fundamentals
Key input into fertiliser products which are experiencing strong price growth


Strong demand side fundamentals expected to drive increased fertiliser use and provide support to ammonia prices

Long term gas supply agreement
25 year (plus 5 year option) Gas Supply and Purchase Agreement with Harriet JV (Apache Corporation is operator)


Expected to generate strong cash flows, driven by leverage to a strong ammonia price environment and a low cost base


Under the current pricing mechanism, the maximum gas price in the final year will not exceed US$1.60 per GJ

Attractive location in Western Australia
Geographically well placed to supply the growing Asia Pacific market


Enjoys cUS$10 per tonne freight advantage over average Middle East prices


Currently has sole use of purpose built bulk liquids berth at Port of Dampier

Artcore

Here is my take on this IPO:

• Fertiliser is VERY HOT at the moment, with world shortage on food supply, the significant price hike on groceries, rice and other soft commodities have created huge market for this fertiliser.
• Ammonia price has doubled in the last 2 years, trading over US $500 per ton.
• Burrup claimed to have the world’s biggest production plant, producing estimated 760,000 tons per annum, or 6% of world total production.
• It is one of biggest floats in last 8 months, raising around $600 million, putting a company with market around $2-$2.5 billion. UBS, Macquarie, BP, ComSec are just some of lead mangers / issue sponsors.
• All the agriculture chemical/fertiliser companies are doing great, just look at Incitec, Orica, Nufarm, and etc. all at record highs to close to record highs.
  

All of above sounds great for the company, but here are my concerns:

• The company’s PE multiple is based on forecasted ADJUSTED NPAF of 2009 10.4-13.4 times to bring the company market capitalisation of $2-2.5 billion. While the PER is not high as other established listed companies, but it is not low either.  True 2008 has generated great growth compared to 2007; nearly 70% growth of EBITDA, but to forecast 2009 to double 100% 2008’s profit, is certainly not conservative. If based on FY08 of EBIT 130.6 million, or NPAT of 91.42 million (30% tax), I would value the company around $1-1.5 Billion. Apparently, the directors want $3 billion market capitalisation, but UBS told them it is impossible and they are being greedy.
  
• The success of the company is largely depended on the supply of reliable gas at cheap costs. The company has been into the media recently due to concerns of WA movement supplying gas to them at taxpayer’s money. Even their own prospectus, they mentioned a legal issue with Tap (one of their gas supplier, supplies just over 12% of the gas) has force amjeure notice relates its ability to supply gas for the full term of the contract.
  
• While it is positive that the Chairman & MD, Pankaj Oswal with his nearly 70% ownership of the company (sell down to 53% after IPO) has decided to enter voluntary escrow arrangement, only to the date of release of audited financial results for FY09 (around May 2009), i.e. 53% (591 million) of the shares will be available to dump at the market for less than 1 year.  I would like to see his shares to be escrowed for at least 2 years.
  
• Burrup Fertiliser has potential contingent liability of $4 million, with a Paharpur Cooling Towers Limited, this litigation is still ongoing and is disclosed in the prospectus. There is another litigation with a German shipping company for amount $2 million was not disclosed. Another founder of Burrup (who previously owned 15%) has also legal disputes with Mr Oswal. Again, none of these were mentioned in the prospectus.  
  
• The bulk of the executive directors have not heard of, or held board positions previously with a listed company in Australia. Pankaj Oswal doesn't have that kind of money to throw around. His family, which has a 55% stake in Burrup, has a troubled business history, largely because of problems with Oswal Chemicals & Fertilizers. The Indian company has posted heavy losses, sold half of its fertilizer capacity and been locked in legal battles with the Indian government, including a recent loss in the Delhi High Court over fertilizer pricing. In April last year the family delisted Oswal Chemicals from the Delhi and Uttar Pradesh stock exchanges.
  

Yet, the other media coverage of Mr Oswal was predominated focused on his lavish billionaire lifestyle; he and his wife are spending $70 million to build an India palace as their residence in Perth, Western Australia.

[ 本帖最后由 Artcore 于 2008-5-28 11:17 编辑 ]

黑山老妖

Anyone read the MQG CPS?
What do you think of it?
@11.095% pa (assuming no interest rate change in the next few weeks), looks okay.
Still haven't worked out if the interest payment is fully franked or not. If fully franked would make it much more attractive.

Catches:
1. there is a clause saying MQG may not pay interest if dividend can't be paid... hmmm.
2. MQG may go under ...
3. interest rate go up and CPS value go down...

Would like to see how other ppl see this.

wangfei

来学习学习

Devil_Star

BURRUP, VERY SENSITIVE TO AMMONIA PRICE, IT CAN BE A GOOD SPECULATION, BUT NOT A SOUND INVESTMENT.

hanpeic

学习了