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本帖最后由 目光降落 于 2014-11-7 21:41 编辑
本来还想发一个收费的地产报告，报告时间是6月份的，针对的是NSW 和悉尼的市场，包括销售数量，价格，趋势分析等，分析结果是也提供给银行做参考，感觉还是满靠谱的， 不过没有权限添加这么大的文件，需要的朋友留个EMAIL， 我一段时间统一发送。
节选一部分信息
Best Estimate Range: -3,000 to 1,000
The estimated new dwellings needed per annum measure is based on ABS data and assumes household formation of 2.76 persons per household.
Residex is not certain and cannot be confident that the number of people required for household formation is as quoted. Further, ABS numbers are unlikely to be complete. Having said this, the final estimate will provide a good guide to what the situation is.
If the Best Estimate Range is positive, it is likely that there is a state housing shortage, which causes house prices to increase and/or rentals to increase. A housing surplus, indicated by a negative figure for the Best Estimate Range, causes housing values to stagnate or adjust slightly. Changes also cause housing formation numbers to alter. That is, if rental and housing purchase costs are generally unaffordable the population will have a tendency to increase the number of people per property. The only time a reasonably clear indicator of the number of people likely to be the basis of housing formation is at the Census date.
Due to the above, it is not wise to aggregate shortages/surpluses year on year. It is better to simply identify or develop a broad understanding of what the current likely housing requirement is in the current year. A very positive number indicates that there are a significant number of dwellings required, which would be taken up if they were available and affordable. This is said because clearly, at any point in time, the population is basically housed but potentially not in a fashion that they would prefer.
Affordability - NSW Median Household Income: $107,021 Median House Cost: $825,500 Median Unit Cost: $568,500 Assumed Deposit: 20% Assumed Interest Rate: 4.98% pa convertible monthly Rental Yield Houses: 3.83% Rental Yield Units: 4.81%
Loan repayment for house = 52.20% of A/T household income or after loan repayments borrower has $812 per week to spend on other things.
Rent for house = 35.72% of A/T household income or after rent tenant has $1092 per week to spend on other things.
Loan repayment for unit = 35.95% of A/T household income or after loan repayments borrower has $1088 per week to spend on other things.
Rent for unit = 30.89% of A/T household income or after rent tenant has $1174 per week to spend on other things.
Based on history it seems as if a maximum commitment level for a household is something in the order of 35% to 40% of A/T household income. |
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尴尬癌的续集——北京遇上西雅图之不二情书 (2016-6-23) 双鱼妈妈 
楼主:目光降落
发表于 2014-10-31 23:33
