澳元点位分析

dingyipu

BofAML’s Chief Australian Economist, Saul Eslake is more bearish than the market on Australian Building Approvals today, looking for a -7.1% MoM print in June (vs. cons. 0.0% MoM) which should weigh on an already heavy AUD.  This significant fall is expected on the back of a major retracement in medium density housing approvals, which spiked to 27% in May.  Additionally, Easter and ANZAC day breaks during April, will have seen many approvals delayed and contributed to the outsized move last month.  In FX, BofAML’s G10 trading feels that following the break of the strong 0.9330 support level in AUDUSD overnight, downside momentum remains and a break of 0.9300/9280 should test next support at 0.9240/50.

dingyipu

It is a relatively heavy data schedule in Australia this week (full story), with June retail sales (Monday), RBA policy decision (Tuesday), June trade balance (Tuesday) and July employment data (Friday) on tap. We look for retail sales to grow by 0.3% m/m, in line with consensus, but we expect a sharp drop of 0.9% in Q2 for real retail sales, one of the largest declines in the past couple of decades. We expect jobs growth to beat consensus at 20k (consensus 13.2k), while the unemployment rate is expected at 6.1% (consensus 6.0%). The trade deficit is likely to be roughly similar to the previous month; we forecast a deficit of AUD1900mn (consensus: -AUD2000mn). The main event will be the RBA meeting where we expect no surprises, with the RBA set to keep the cash rate at a record of 2.5%. The usual rant about the strength of the currency is expected, but this will be nothing new.

dingyipu

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shdanding

级别低的人飘过，没资格下载看

lifeparadise

顶，赞同

中期也是要跌

dingyipu

shdanding 发表于 2014-8-5 17:09
级别低的人飘过，没资格下载看

dingyipu

悉尼好

一路看到8毛2

dingyipu

悉尼好 发表于 2014-8-5 21:36
一路看到8毛2

Stevens就喜欢你这样的：）

悉尼好

良好的期待而已。客观的讲，我认为澳元再大升不会了，要跌也不会很快。

未来3个月，看美国经济数据了。

dingyipu

啦啦啦，静待下月降息...

dingyipu

Macquarie's David Forrester:

1.    Employment growth clearly surprised to the downside (actual -0.3K, consensus  13.2K). The only positive aspect on this front was that full-time employment was up  14.5K. But, demand for workers has fallen with aggregate hours worked falling nearly 1% m/m;

2.    The unemployment rate was the big surprise jumping to 6.4% from 6%. Labour force participation picked up by 43.4K. It is worth noting that the rise in unemployed people was 43.7K, which suggests that all new people to the labour force went into becoming unemployed. This leaves Strategy sceptical about the jump in the unemployment rate, especially given the survey changes.

3.    The ABS denies any impact of the new survey method on the unemployment rate. The ABS released the following statement alongside the labour force data today: "There is no evidence that the introduction of the new active job search steps and the changing of two active steps to passive has had a significant impact on the estimates for unemployment and not in the labour force. In addition, changes in participation and the number of unemployed persons did not occur in a consistent manner across states and territories, males and females, and age groups. This further supports the conclusion that the new questionnaire had no systematic impact on the estimates of unemployed persons and persons not in the labour force." Overall, the data have put a dent in the AUD and Aussie rates and I would expect this dent to last (i.e. AUD will not likely rebound). We think that downside in AUD will be limited, however, as investor scepticism about the unemployment rate reading builds in the market. So, we would not chase the move lower in the AUD.

dingyipu

dingyipu

澳元/美元：情况没变，市场仍承压。日内艾略特波浪数偏空，可能跌至5月低位和200日移动均线0.9203/0.9184。此处附近还有55周移动均线0.9202，以及32.8%回档位0.9195。

dingyipu

Westpac：澳洲联储下调2015年增长预期，这给澳洲联储下半年降息提供了一些灵活性；但仍认为澳洲联储太过于保守，因此预计2014年全年澳洲联储都将按兵不动。

dingyipu

dingyipu

AUDUSD可能会有下跌，但可能底部支撑较强，净多头

jjz10

dingyipu 发表于 2014-8-11 08:55
AUDUSD可能会有下跌，但可能底部支撑较强，净多头有增加

哪里看的多头有增加？是指远期合约的吗？

dingyipu

jjz10 发表于 2014-8-11 09:16
哪里看的多头有增加？是指远期合约的吗？

data feed~

但据说是来买澳洲国债的，所以澳洲国债收益率大跌：P

dingyipu

AUD强买盘在0.9230/35

rdou10

分析模型

rdou10

经济不好，澳币怎么涨？

dingyipu

sell a rally towards 0.9300 in order to play the 0.9250/0.9300 range – a short term stop through 0.9330/35 now preferred

dingyipu

今日期权到期：$0.9310-20(A$222mn)

dingyipu

高盛：尽管经济放缓，但澳储行似乎不太倾向减息

dingyipu

dingyipu

AUDUSD treads water for the time being as the crosses continue to drive price action – AUDNZD approaching our 1.12 target and EURAUD lurching lower over the weekend. International trade figures show signs of deteriorating, but given Stevens’ acknowledgement AUDUSD treads water for the time being as the crosses continue to drive price action – AUDNZD approaching our 1.12 target and EURAUD lurching lower over the weekend. International trade figures show signs of deteriorating, but given Stevens’ acknowledgement