正现金流买房可行性分析

newtoall

# cash flow is not everything to property investment.

Agree.  

#  because you invest not for rent but for CG.

Disagree partially.  

Because the property investment can be rent only or can be rent only for a very very long time.   Actually rent is the tangible stuff  when you are holding the asset even you want/desire to get CG in the end.  CG is not CG until you sold the asset in reality.

Rent to properties is like  dividend to shares --> for those life long holder or  retired or close to retire person, rent (esp net rent)  should be the driving factor to pick up properties.  

flyspirit

newtoall 发表于 2012-11-16 13:39
Great  I am trying to use NPV but NPV implies NET PRESENT VALUE.  

To be relatively accurate,

In calculation net, the problem will be how to calculate the interest of those cost components like stamp duty, council fee, strata fee etc.  

- You don't calculate the interest of stamp duty, council fee, strata etc.   Discount factor looks after all these in NPV.  However, the challenging is how to determine the discount factor. It varies for individual. Thumb of rule is the alternative best investment. For example, if you are good stock investor and can get 15% profit in share trading. Your discount factor is 15%

Also how much interest should be used during the holding time period, variable or fixed ?

- When calculating NPV, you need to estimate further interest rate.  If you use fix rate, it's easier. If you prefer variable, look at past average variable interest rate.


Anyone actually have  calculate their asset NPV  precisely considering all factors?

- I didn't but may be other did.   Ask experienced accountant, they are good at NPV calculation.

simplyjean

newtoall 发表于 2012-11-16 14:22
# cash flow is not everything to property investment.

Agree.  

你不需要卖掉房子去realise你的gain, 具体怎么做，就不详述了。房租只是血液，没有它不行，但是那饲养的猪能有多肥，能卖什么价钱，不是有血液就可以的。最后你还是要把猪给卖了不是。守一辈子的房子，而不在乎周期，那也不是什么好投资了。

flyspirit

simplyjean 发表于 2012-11-16 13:59
Sorry, I am in Syd. But I still want to say that, cash flow is not everything to property investme ...

Do you understand what is NPV?

simplyjean

flyspirit 发表于 2012-11-16 14:45
Do you understand what is NPV?

额。。。你的问题想问什么？我想大家都知道什么是NPV

newtoall

flyspirit 发表于 2012-11-16 14:43
To be relatively accurate,

In calculation net, the problem will be how to calculate the interest ...

Yes, the discount factor is an issue for me.

Normally
    I tend to use the bank mortgage interest or current interest as the discount factor.
    Alternatively I use the highest saving interest rate as the discount factor.

The problem is during the period of holding interests rate change.

I just wonder anyone actually do these things precisely --- BTW I am not an accountant either.

simplyjean

flyspirit 发表于 2012-11-16 14:43
To be relatively accurate,

In calculation net, the problem will be how to calculate the interest ...

My stamp duty is out of the loan as well, so the interest cost from it will be considered. At least I will consider this.

newtoall

simplyjean 发表于 2012-11-16 14:53
My stamp duty is out of the loan as well, so the interest cost from it will be considered. At leas ...

Wow..  that means you are fully hooked for the properties -- is what you said possible with BANK loan / asset ratio to be 80/100?

I understand you may have a couple of properties and loan and then refinance but there is a root of cost right ?   

Could you tell me your Loan to Asset % ?  Loan to Purchase $ % ? at this stage.

Asset value please use the current Council CIV not use the bank one (sometimes bank ones are inflated as well :) )

jyy_jessie

请教各个楼层的投资高手：现在自住房贷款30万，新盖了一个房子，等房子盖好了准备搬过去，目前自住的估计也只能卖个33万左右，如果出租的话每年大概要补房租跟利息差大概5，6千。大家说如果拿来出租，等房价涨上去了再卖，这样合算还是说直接卖了。

simplyjean

newtoall 发表于 2012-11-16 14:57
Wow..  that means you are fully hooked for the properties -- is what you said possible with BANK l ...

That are my secrets.. :) can't tell you.

flyspirit

simplyjean 发表于 2012-11-16 14:51
额。。。你的问题想问什么？我想大家都知道什么是NPV

NPV并不是现金流。

flyspirit

simplyjean 发表于 2012-11-16 14:53
My stamp duty is out of the loan as well, so the interest cost from it will be considered. At leas ...

It doesn't matter where your stamp duty money come from.   It's just part of your initial capital expenditure.

simplyjean

flyspirit 发表于 2012-11-16 14:59
NPV并不是现金流。

额。。。我没有想讨论NPV，我在说现金流

simplyjean

flyspirit 发表于 2012-11-16 15:00
It doesn't matter where your stamp duty money come from.   It's just part of your initial capital  ...

I think we have different methodologies of investment projects comparison. I don't do it via NPV. So let's keep it that way. 求同存异。

flyspirit

Normally
    I tend to use the bank mortgage interest or current interest as the discount factor.
    Alternatively I use the highest saving interest rate as the discount factor.

- That's absolutely right if you think banking deposit is your best alternative.

The problem is during the period of holding interests rate change.

-  Use past average interest rate. Also try different input value.

I just wonder anyone actually do these things precisely --- BTW I am not an accountant either.

-  Must be, it's not hard.   Have a look at NPV calculation and you can work it out yourself.

newtoall

simplyjean 发表于 2012-11-16 14:59
That are my secrets.. :) can't tell you.

I think % calculation will protect your privacy.

The reason for me to ask this is to understand why you are saying above because I found hard to believe some parts or may have flaws .   

Normally it is like this way
   -->  In broad calculation --- Yeah you found you win and get good return
   -->  In detail calculation --- Em.. not so good and ROI is probably just interest of your deposit or even you actually is at a loss.

Here is mine.  Probably can help you to share yours or at least do some calculation in the backside.

# CIV is using current council value
# Purchase $ is the purchase price + (all initial fee like stamp duty)
# Building $ =  CIV - Site Value

Building Ratio = Building $ / CIV                                 32.4%
Loan To Asset (L/A) = loan / CIV $                                 45.2%
Loan To Asset (L/A) = loan / Purchase  $                                 56.4%


BTW as I said Asset value please do not use bank refinance valuation -- bank refinance ones may be high in some cases.

640

# CIV is using current council value
# Purchase $ is the purchase price + (all initial fee like stamp duty)
# Building $ =  CIV - Site Value

Building Ratio = Building $ / CIV                                 32.4%
Loan To Asset (L/A) = loan / CIV $                                 45.2%
Loan To Asset (L/A) = loan / Purchase  $                                 56.4%

------------------------------------------------
Questions:
1. Since council value normally just to determine land tax, how does it reflects the true value of apartments?
2. Your % on L/A between CIV$ & Purchase $ are around 10% differ, is it meaning your council value is higher than purchaser $ ?

newtoall

640 发表于 2012-11-16 16:34
# CIV is using current council value
# Purchase $ is the purchase price + (all initial fee like stam ...

Questions:
1. Since council value normally just to determine land tax, how does it reflects the true value of apartments?

Answer:
   The council value normally has three compenents :  Site value, Capital Improve Value and net Annual value.
    Site value approx =  land value
    CIV appox = overall value
   
    The council value may  not reflect the true value of the property -- the absolute true value only can be obtained when you sold the property.  
   Council value may not be accurate but good enough in most calculations.

This is another reason, I put the asset value =  purchase $ as well. But none of them will be 100% accurate.


2. Your % on L/A between CIV$ & Purchase $ are around 10% differ, is it meaning your council value is higher than purchaser $ ?

Answer:
   Correct.  This occurs mainly because of timing. You purchased the properties a couple of years earlier and the value of CIV gradually increase.

640

On top of that:

NPV need to take into a few variable factors, interest rate, levy, council cost extra. So we could just take it as acceptable variance since all other terms are equal.

Then how do we determine the growth rate for coming years? using historical data obviously is the way to go; but which rate? and what method we should use to make sure such rate represents true mean also relevant? as there are CG rate(value grow) and rental return rate etc. Is this means we will be doing 2 calculations as there are 2 ROI? (rent and CG)

640

newtoall 发表于 2012-11-16 16:40
Questions:
1. Since council value normally just to determine land tax, how does it reflects the tr ...

Got it.

So considering council value is always lower than market value, that means on CG wise, you have made a great return as of now.

Then that leads to another question, what is the average holding time you have on your properties? so then we could work out the annual return, right? then compare with other investment products ROI right?

gordonye2000

黑山老妖 发表于 2012-11-15 17:21
你确定是unit 不是apartment?

lydbrook st, westmead.  顶层 UNIT, 南北贯通, 双阳台.  夏天都不用开空调. 阿3医生租.

gordonye2000

黑山老妖 发表于 2012-11-15 17:21
你确定是unit 不是apartment?

另外一套朝向没那么好, 只租到 $480

xiwu

黑山老妖 发表于 2012-11-15 08:05
悉尼地区基本没有。除了几个偏僻的地方

用心找找还是有的.   最近接触两cases.

Case 1:   House about 400k,  租520,  F/B ,  可租$600 after some work as the tenants have been there for 12 years.
         贷款400k，利率5.6%(ANZ)，年利息$22400.  年租金收入$27040.   

Case 2:   House about 850k,  租940,  B/V ,  Epping附近校区房,
         贷款850k，利率5.6%(ANZ)，年利息$47600.  年租金收入$48880.   

Farm5

xiwu 发表于 2012-11-18 13:42
用心找找还是有的.   最近接触两cases.

Case 1:   House about 400k,  租520,  F/B ,  可租$600 after s ...

Case 1:   House about 400k,  租520,  F/B ,  可租$600 after some work as the tenants have been there for 12 years.
         贷款400k，利率5.6%(ANZ)，年利息$22400.  年租金收入$27040.   


---房子400K，贷400K， 100%贷款？


Case 2:   House about 850k,  租940,  B/V ,  Epping附近校区房,
         贷款850k，利率5.6%(ANZ)，年利息$47600.  年租金收入$48880.   

---房价850K， 贷款850K？


ANZ贷款利率5.39%， 2年FIXED， 你的怎么5.6%？

xiwu

Farm5 发表于 2012-11-18 20:20
Case 1:   House about 400k,  租520,  F/B ,  可租$600 after some work as the tenants have been ther ...

我总是按100%贷款来计算正现金流房的.


>ANZ贷款利率5.39%， 2年FIXED， 你的怎么5.6%？
Thanks for your information.  I will follow up this matter.