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很感兴趣也来谈谈自己的观点，不专业也不代表任何机构及他人。在这里引用的英文就不翻译了，assume大家都看得懂。
首先，什么是QE？是指政府直接印钞么？
Quantitative easing (QE) is a form of unconventional monetary policy in which a central bank purchases longer-term securities from the open market in order to increase the money supply and encourage lending and investment. Buying these securities adds new money to the economy, and also serves to lower interest rates by bidding up fixed-income securities. It also greatly expands the central bank's balance sheet.
When short-term interest rates are at or approaching zero, normal open market operations, which target interest rates, are no longer effective. Instead, a central bank can target specified amounts of assets to purchase. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by purchasing assets with newly created bank reserves in order to provide banks with more liquidity.
上文说明，QE的本质是提供“广义银行”的流动性，通过购买各类assets增加货币供给。那么，这部分货币直接的流向是各类企业及商业，因为是鼓励lending和investment。在美国，这次QE后的主要体现就是股市和二级市场公司债的上扬，同时给民众发钱增加消费。那么，QE会不会使得CPI上涨？先看CPI是什么。
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket of goods and averaging them. Changes in the CPI are used to assess price changes associated with the cost of living; the CPI is one of the most frequently used statistics for identifying periods of inflation or deflation.
CPI指数反应的是一篮子商品、服务的average价格变化。那么，QE后企业和商业钱多了用于生产，同时另一端刺激消费购买商品和服务，如果supply和demand同时提高（或者叫恢复）宏观上不会引发供需平衡大波动，那么一篮子商品、服务的平均价格不会出现大变化。所以说，CPI指数不会有大的波动。那么，CPI等于通胀么？先看CPI和Inflation关系。
Although the CPI is often analogous to inflation, it only measures inflation as experienced by consumers. However, it is not the only indicator of the level of inflation. The producer price index (PPI) measures inflation in the production process, and the employment cost index measures inflation in the labor market. The international price program shows inflation for imports and exports while the gross domestic product deflator includes inflation experienced by individuals, governments, and other institutions.
可以看到，CPI只能从消费者角度去类比通胀，但是CPI不等于inflation。Inflation的indicator很多，不单单是从消费价格一个方面表现，这里我就不贴inflation的定义了。大多数时候会发现，Inflation总是比CPI高，就是可以简单理解为CPI只是Inflation一部分这个原理。
搬砖去了，后面再聊。 |
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奈何秋意惹人困，手倦抛书午梦长 (2006-2-20) astina 
最后的疯狂－西藏 (2006-9-27) ANDERSON999 
楼主:CAVOK
发表于 2020-4-1 13:01
