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本帖最后由 Hetbert 于 2018-12-12 00:29 编辑
有四名受害者DNA的血渍91也有很多的疑点:
第一个疑点是:法医在去搜查的路上和那天早晨的通气会上,得到的明确指示是,这天专门在谢家车库找血渍。
“Forensic examinations in relation to Stain 91 during the execution of the search warrant at 4 Beck Street, Epping on 11 May 2010
3. On 11 May 2010, police executed a Crime Scene Warrant at the accused's home at 4 Beck Street and a detailed forensic examination and search of the premises was conducted. The search continued until 15 May 2010. On 13 May 2010, the forensic examination included the garage, where a number of swabs and samples were obtained of stains and markings believed to be blood. Underneath furniture in the garage, police located a small amount of what appeared to be blood which was sampled and sent for DNA analysis.
Evidence from forensic officers searching the garage
4. At the Committal, evidence was called from biologists Melanie LeCompte and Nicole Campbell, who were then attached to the Forensic Biology Section. Ms LeCompte attended 4 Beck Street between 12 to 14 May 2010. Ms Campbell attended the premises on 13 and 14 May 2010. Ms Gerhard, who was also then a reporting officer in the Forensic Biology Unit, attended on 12 May 2010.
5. Ms LeCompte gave evidence on 29 August and 30 August 2012. Ms Campbell was called as a witness on 13 November 2012. Ms Gerhard, together with the defence expert Dr Paula Hallam, gave evidence during the voir dire proceedings on 21 and 22 November 2013.
6. The biologists that were present at the time gave evidence in relation to a briefing that was provided to the forensic officers prior to the start of the search on each of the mornings, the areas that were examined at 4 Beck St, and the details and procedure of the forensic examinations, in particular, with regard to the garage floor and Stain 91.
7. The defence expert Dr Hallam did not have the advantage of any direct observation of the screening, detection, examination and swabbing of Stain 91. …
Briefing
8. The forensic biologists were explicitly tasked with conducting an examination at 4 Beck Street that was focussed on detecting blood evidence. Ms LeCompte gave evidence that the forensic officers who conducted the search of the garage were briefed in the morning of 13 May 2010 to ‘look for blood and therefore anything that we possibly could believe that was blood we would test to see if there is the possibility that the stain is a blood stain'.
9. Ms Campbell stated that the information she received from Ms LeCompte on the drive to the premises of 4 Beck Street on 13 May 2010 was that they were going to concentrate the search on this particular day on the garage. She was further informed that, ‘they believed that the occupant of the house had been in the garage and they wanted to see if there was any blood staining in it’. Ms Campbell stated that, ‘a plan was formed that we would concentrate on the garage that day that we would be looking for any sort of blood staining on any of the furniture, on the floor or on any of the tools. Basically, all the contents of the garage was to be searched’. Ms Gerhard confirmed that the biologists were given particular instructions to screen the premises for blood.
第二个疑点是: 血迹91始终没有做人血的确认测试。
法医在现场的"presumptive" tests,由于过度灵敏,对金属和动植物都有反应,一般用于排除,即不是血渍,而不是用于确认是血渍。
澳洲曾经有过冤案,就是现在全澳空气最差的矿业小镇Mount Isa,空气中含有金属的粉尘太多,presumptive" tests都会变色。
The catalytic tests are extremely sensitive (blood can be detected to dilutions of about 1 in
100,000), but are subject to a number of interferences and are therefore not totally specific
for blood. Substances which can interfere include enzymes such as catalase and peroxidases
(which can occur in both plant and animal materials), oxidising chemicals and metals - in
particular copper and iron. There has to be an awareness of this when results are interpreted,
particularly when testing outdoors, where many types of plant material can be present, or
testing in vehicles, where metal surfaces can interfere. The general principle is that if the test
is negative, blood is absent, but that if the test is positive, blood is probably, not definitely
present. For this reason the tests are often described as "presumptive" tests.
An interesting example of possible interferences occurred with the testing of the car
belonging to Michael and Lindy Chamberlain after the disappearance of their daughter
Azaria at Ayer's Rock, Australia, in 1980. The Chamberlains lived in Mt Isa, a copper
mining town, with a high concentration of copper-containing dust in the atmosphere. The car
was later tested for the presence of blood with ortho-tolidine. Some positive results found
were subsequently attributed to the presence of copper.3
https://nzic.org.nz/app/uploads/2017/10/12A.pdf
第三个疑点是:用TrueAllele给出血渍含有四名受害者的DNA报告的法医专家的报告里显示血渍91也包含林家孤女的DNA。 (这就是为什么检方说血渍91至少含有四名受害者的DNA)
Dr Perlin’s report dated 26 March 2014 as providing evidence of Ms AB’s DNA being contained in Item 550
TrueAllele是有局限性的,是提出一个假设,然后根据给定DNA样本,计算出这个假设的可能性。
法医给出的假设就是血渍91里面含有三到五个人的DNA。
即使假设成立,血迹91含有四名受害者DNA的解释从统计学上看也不是很有力。
给出结果的方式对陪审团也很有误导性。 比如是随机概率的27.1倍 27.1 times more probable than a coincidental match to an unrelated Asian person.
那么,问题是,作为对比的coincidental match to an unrelated Asian person的基数概率到底是多少?
这个基数是个很微小的值。FBI的数据是coincidental match to an unrelated person的概率是1 in 400 trillion. 1/400,000,000,000,000
http://freakonomics.com/2008/08/ ... -dna-matches-crazy/
我查了查TrueAllele其它定罪的数据作为对比,都是随机概率的2亿倍到8亿倍。
由于几者的亲属关系,Yun Bin Lin 27.1倍, Yun Li Lin 的4410倍,这两个从统计学上都可以说是不确定的。
1/400,000,000,000,000和27.1/400,000,000,000,000,4410/400,000,000,000,000 没有啥大差别, 地球上总共才不到80亿人。
能够确定的是,血渍91里面应该有两个男孩Henry和Terry的DNA。
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK232615/
https://www.cybgen.com/informati ... l-the-time/talk.ppt
Dr Mark Perlin received the DNA data generated by DAL in New South Wales when processing the reference samples (for the Accused and five deceased persons) and a number of crime scene samples (Items 47, 223, 550 and 616). Dr Perlin processed the DNA data using the “TrueAllele Casework” system. TrueAllele Casework is a computerised DNA interpretation system that objectively infers genetic profiles (genotypes) from DNA samples. The inferred genotypes can then be compared to reference genotypes. The Crown contends that TrueAllele Casework has been validated on synthetic and casework data and results have been admitted into evidence in the United Kingdom.
The results for Stain 91 (Item 550) were processed on the assumption that it contained three, four or five contributors. Dr Perlin expressed the following opinions based upon the results of the TrueAllele processing:
(a) a match between a contributor to Stain 91 and Yun Bin Lin is 4,410 times more probable than a coincidental match to an unrelated Asian person;
(b) a match between a contributor to Stain 91 and Yun Li Lin is 27.1 times more probable than a coincidental match to an unrelated Asian person;
(c) a match between a contributor to Stain 91 and Min Lin is 379,000 times more probable than a coincidental match to an unrelated Asian person;
(d) a match between a contributor to Stain 91 and Henry Lin is 1.33 billion times more probable than a coincidental match to an unrelated Asian person; and
(e) a match between a contributor to Stain 91 and Terry Lin is 1.03 quintillion times more probable than a coincidental match to an unrelated Asian person.
Dr Perlin further conducted “evidence to evidence” comparison using TrueAllele and expressed the following opinions based on the results:
(a) a contributor to Stain 91 (Item 550) matches a contributor to Item 47 with a likelihood ratio of 1.78 billion relative to an Asian population;
(b) a contributor to Stain 91 (Item 550) matches a contributor to Item 223 with a likelihood ratio of 327,000 relative to an Asian population; and
(c) a contributor to Stain 91 (Item 550) matches a contributor to Item 616 with a likelihood ratio of 9.56 quadrillion relative to an Asian population.
Dr Simon Walsh described the mixed profiles from Stain 91 (Item 550) and Item 616 (based upon PowerPlex 21 testing) as “consistent, with a large amount of overlapping information, present in similar proportions”. He expressed the opinion that there was a “very high degree of similarity for complex mixed profiles of this nature, particularly considering these observations under a proposition that the mixed profiles arose independently from each other”. He was not able to make a statistical assessment of the observed similarities.
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