澳洲房价看跌

CHN

640 发表于 2013-7-29 13:39
you said it, US,

This is AUS.

The current issue is even RBA further cut IR, t he outlook for both mining and non-mining business investment remains weak. people still lose confidence to spend their money, you can go to the shopping centre to have a look. You guys save every cents to buy a house, all the other sectors will get hit.

Aus economy is not immune to the world economy. Lower exchange rate may help education and travel sectors a little bit, but Oz as  a whole market, can't compete with North America and Europe, coz
1 the labor cost here is too high. 2, immigration policy.

I know some guys think investing on  a  property is a safe heaven,unless you make sure you will won't lose you job in the next 5 years.

sy0326

LZ从发帖到现在一个月，房价又涨了

640

CHN 发表于 2013-7-29 15:00
The current issue is even RBA further cut IR, t he outlook for both mining and non-mining business ...

You mentioned current issue that is “one” issue.

Cutting rate does more than just boosting some sectors, outlook for both mining & non-mining sector remain week could seem as only “present” status, doesn’t really mean things is going to go downhill all the way. This is my point.

Also, cutting rate also could means more money on the primary & secondary market, encourage investment other than saving, boosting small business expansion with cheap funding etc. You do understand right?

Aus economy is not immune to anything at all, my point is current economy have less likely risk factor to have a downhill outlook.

Labor cost is definitely high in Aus if you compare to rest of the world, that is also why our tax is used to pay for Holden’s factories, but obviously keeping manufacturing business in this country is kind of no brainer as globalization is the way to go. But, Aus don’t have to compete with rest of the world for labor cost do we? We only have 20M people.

Immigration policy like I said before, CAN BE CHANGE.  

Safe heaven is one thing, if worry about losing your jobs in 5 years is the reason not buying into any investment products, is just purely person choice. You buy a property, pay 20%, 1 month later you lost your job, you sell your property and go back to rent or you lease out the property and find a job to service the loan, and pardon me for not listing all of your “options”.

Again, I suggest you need to look at all variables. Also not focus on only one issue, there won’t be a one solution policy to fix any economy and certainly can’t judge base on only certain issues.

澳洲袋鼠

高房价肯定阻碍经济发展，房价降了才有钱去消费拉动其它行业，要不都节衣缩食还贷。新加坡房屋也算是供小于求，人口密度远大于悉尼，东南亚金融危机时房价照样腰斩。关键是政府如何调控房价。如限制外国人买房，取消负扣税等，房价立马下跌， 经济风险就逐渐释放。另外，不明白有些人买了一套又一套房产， 租金的投资回报还不如银行利息。

CASTLE

樓主說的是有可能的..............
但是悉尼可能是個異數.............................只是滯漲
其他城市就難說會災難到什麼程度了

CHN

640 发表于 2013-7-29 17:30
You mentioned current issue that is “one” issue.

Cutting rate does more than just boosting som ...

The truth is RBA cut the rates to the historic low, the money not flow to Mining , Manufacturing sectors. More big projects were cut or suspended. more labor workers lost their jobs. where is the money? going to property markets?

Aus don’t have to compete with rest of the world for labor cost do we?

Seriously, u really think we don't need compete with other countries coz we have only 20m population?
Globalization means people can get cheap items from overseas,means funds flow back to north America, Europe and Asia, means graduates, professionals moving overseas.

Immigration policy , CAN BE CHANGE.  but not now. Did u notice the Unemployment rate? Young generation can't find jobs
governments will not upset them to change the policy.

now the truth is governments don't have enough funds, Aus budget deficits is 20b, which means more tax coming and more benefits will be cut.

I agree there are variables, and i do hope things getting better, but property markets won't support Aus economy, only Mining and Manufacturing sectors can do that.

victor_cn

我觉得澳洲政府的基本思路还是支持房产的。毕竟一大笔印花税的收入。但是过高的房价确实阻碍经济发展。所以，我认为政府会继续加大APTMENT的开发；甚至有可能出政策加大持有投资房的成本。 总之在目前澳洲经济情况，投资房产还是小心为好

johnli1118

毛巴马主席 发表于 2013-7-7 19:09
“华尔街收割到美国本土了吗？美国本土的烂帐早就通过证券发往全世界了！至于没有甩到世界市场上去的，左手 ...

主席认识深刻，佩服！挺楼主 。

johnli1118

毛巴马主席 发表于 2013-7-9 07:57
我这是开贴会友，欢迎大家赐教，板砖，瓦片，糖果，美玉，都欢迎啊。

有气度！欣赏主席。

640

CHN 发表于 2013-7-29 19:48
The truth is RBA cut the rates to the historic low, the money not flow to Mining , Manufacturing s ...

“Historic low” happens every time when the rest of the world goes sideways, IT bubble, GFC etc.  If you look at historic high, we were pretty much at the worst stage of our economic histories. So what is wrong with low?

Money not flow into certain sectors doesn’t mean money doesn’t flow to other sectors. Big projects are on hold that is a fact I agreed, but more property projects are being released are also another fact.

Saying more labor works lost their jobs, based on the biggest down turn back in 30s in US, our employment rate is not 20%, not 10%, not 8%, not even 7% like in GFC, it is sitting below 6%.

Immigration policy not changing now? I am not sure what you mean, as we have 188 visa launched not long ago, replacing 163 visa, and also other changes in 457 etc, they are always changing. One thing that still in play, is the skill shortage list still have accounting & IT, where students could still fight their way for PR if they have enough money to stay in the country. Now a side note is, if current rate drops as well that will also attract more.

Young generation can’t find jobs? That is always in play as we known our government pays them too well to sit on the beach, and you could also noticed the changing in such policies with centrelink for jobseekers. Young generation can’t find jobs wouldn’t an issue large enough to effect the whole economic.

Property market won’t support Aus economy on its own, but it is where you have increased wealth that large enough to keep the money flowing, or you can see it as an alternative when other sectors are slowing down.

CHN

Historic low interest rate did not change consumers confidence to spend their money, our economy still in the downturn.

u see property markets onthe rise, but building sectors still suffer, you do think residential property can support the whole Economy?

As for the immigration policy, how many people can get  188 visa? How many local students can find a Accounting or IT jobs now , not to say overseas students.More and more IT jobs are shift to overseas.

CHN

The core issue is governments short of budgets, the money flow from North america,Europe in the past 10 years is flowing back, if the RBA keep cutting the rates, A$ will keep dropping and funds will escape faster.

You better hope the local residential property markets, like SYD, Mel and Perth could  support the whole nation's economy. if people can't find jobs in there cities, why they stay here?

毛巴马主席

感谢各位参与，包括各位中介大佬以及房地产业相关人士，但我尤其感谢的是普通网友们的发言，很有教益，受惠不浅。

现在的房地产的确火热，但是我们这些普通投资者，适合目前的市场吗？有这个实力去和鲨鱼或傻鱼们拼吗？
仔细观察一下，现在出来拍卖的房源，不称心的或远超出自己的居多，我们现在高价出手，也许是赚到了，这有50%的可能，但万一市场在一，两年后downturn了呢？这也有50%的可能啊，如果这样，我们能承受吗？

所以，我建议大家冷静，谨慎，观望，等待，有房在手的，不要随便走宝，没房在手的，继续寻觅，但这一两年内，不要出手交易，现金为王，尤其是年轻人，你的时间是大把的，不要急。

cdfei

毛巴马主席 发表于 2013-7-30 14:11
感谢各位参与，包括各位中介大佬以及房地产业相关人士，但我尤其感谢的是普通网友们的发言，很有教益，受惠 ...

主席，听你的！

sy0326

毛巴马主席 发表于 2013-7-30 14:11
感谢各位参与，包括各位中介大佬以及房地产业相关人士，但我尤其感谢的是普通网友们的发言，很有教益，受惠 ...

为什么是50%不是30%70%，说明你现在也看不准一半一半啊

jands

毛巴马主席 发表于 2013-7-30 14:11
感谢各位参与，包括各位中介大佬以及房地产业相关人士，但我尤其感谢的是普通网友们的发言，很有教益，受惠 ...

跟著主席走

毛巴马主席

滚石不生苔，频繁的交易，你得不到任何好处，既然大家这么看好澳洲，那也要hold住了，不要苦了自己，肥了中介。

CASTLE

先買各便宜的小公寓自住..................

car_sprite

sy0326 发表于 2013-7-30 14:19
为什么是50%不是30%70%，说明你现在也看不准一半一半啊

讨论帖而已 没必要那么较真 人家楼主也无非是举个增幅减幅的例子而已 再说了 来泡论坛的咱都是平民 会分析会预测那也是个人主观意见 到这里来大家都是讨论 就不明白为什么有的人那么爱吹毛求疵 分享大家的想法和观点 有助于我们学到不知道的东西和理性的从多方面考虑地产方面的问题 而不是一个个象专家似的这个攻击那个攻击 你们特么的有能耐就都去做房产大鳄 别在这打消人积极性

sy0326

car_sprite 发表于 2013-7-30 18:09
讨论帖而已 没必要那么较真 人家楼主也无非是举个增幅减幅的例子而已 再说了 来泡论坛的咱都是平民 会分 ...

就算预测也要有个依据啊，要不在这一通胡乱猜测有意思吗？

ivorsyd

坑子

jeffxia

allgone 发表于 2013-7-5 09:28
大家没发现市场上房子很少吗？

房东不肯卖正是因为市场价位太低，给他加五十万，看他卖不卖

jeffxia

wTam 发表于 2013-7-5 09:20
整个澳洲平均看跌。个别华人區不一定。

白人是澳洲的主流社会，政府由白人组建和构成，政策有白人制定和执行，这个基本点在澳华人永远不要忘记。华人区终究是少数民族区域，少给你修条铁路、上空给你开条飞机航线，房价立马跌下来，现在内西区房价高过mosman，典型的泡沫，必破。反而是那些白人区的房价有希望在rba连续减息下保持相对的稳定

sisicat

猫本涨得呼呼的

icec

不看跌看涨

wws2013

毛巴马主席 发表于 2013-7-30 15:38
滚石不生苔，频繁的交易，你得不到任何好处，既然大家这么看好澳洲，那也要hold住了，不要苦了自己，肥了中 ...

主席能说说，现在房价这么高了，拿出来卖的为什么还这么少呢？

fitr

wws2013 发表于 2013-7-31 00:31
主席能说说，现在房价这么高了，拿出来卖的为什么还这么少呢？

expect to get even higher

毛巴马主席

目前是变局之前的黑暗期，澳洲其实也是美日资本的天下，由不得澳洲人说了算，现在澳币有继续下跌的可能，中国能有大把钱的基本都跑美国去了，谁会在澳币下跌，资产价格高腾，没有继续增长空间的澳洲小市场上投资，下跌的风险太大。

至于中国的大妈大爷，移民投靠的，有钱的能有几个？基本还是血汗钱的老百姓，有钱人是有，人家是来买几千万豪宅的，这儿高，他们也可以去佛罗里达，这些人跟你华人房学区房之类的没关系，他们的小孩不稀罕你澳洲中学。

thecatinthehat

woshiren

卡叔 发表于 2013-7-5 10:20
今年有很多人会买在山顶。

澳大利亚以前是就业天堂，高澳元，低失业率。现在这些优势已经成为过去，移民潮 ...

是啊 这个天堂越来越。。。失去往日风采