欧盟药品监管机构：血栓是“非常罕见的阿斯利康副作用”

flyfish668

麻烦了，估计更少人打了。

可以试试对那些岛国搞疫苗外交，同天朝晒冷。

猫儿不笨

The JCVI said there had been 79 reported cases of blood clots in the UK, out of more than 20 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine administered. Nineteen of them have died.

Both the EMA and JCVI reiterated that the advantages of the AstraZeneca vaccine outweighed the risks, and the vaccine remains safe for use in all age groups.

The EMA received reports of 169 cases of a rare brain blood clot in people who received AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine.

The 169 cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST), as of April 4, compared to the 34 million doses of the shot administered in the European Economic Area, said Sabine Straus, the chair of the EMA's safety committee.



正式数据是169例/34 million，但英国由于前面6周将脑栓塞病例归类于中风而不加入统计，至少漏算了40例，总数据应该是210例/34million，平均每16万接受阿斯利康疫苗者，会有一例脑栓塞

猫儿不笨

In comparison, four women out of 10,000 would get a blood clot from taking oral contraception.

每1万个使用口服避孕药的妇女（在一年里）有4个人会有血栓塞。相比之下

但相信口服避孕药相关的血栓，居多发生在腿和肺

猫儿不笨

Under-30s to be offered Pfizer and Moderna shots in UK

Wei Shen Lim, COVID-19 chair for Britain's JCVI, said that based on the available data and evidence, the committee believed it was preferable for adults aged under 30 with no underlying conditions to be offered an alternative to the AstraZeneca vaccine where available.

He said that for younger people, where the risks of hospitalisation were much lower, the risk/benefit calculation of the Oxford/AstraZeneca shot meant other vaccines were preferable.

"We are not advising a stop to any vaccination for any individual in any age group. We are advising a preference for one vaccine over another vaccine for a particular age group, really out of the utmost caution, rather than because we have any serious safety concerns," Dr Lim said at a briefing.

He said people should continue to have a second dose of the AstraZeneca shot if they had received a first dose.


英国权威医生推荐30岁以下的不用阿斯利康，而用别的疫苗。。。

smallcup

猫儿不笨 发表于 2021-4-8 16:10
The JCVI said there had been 79 reported cases of blood clots in the UK, out of more than 20 million ...

The incidence of CVST has been estimated at three to five cases per million population per year

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4313700/

所以3个月内自然发生CVST概率是百万分之一左右，疫苗人群是百万分之6。疫苗导致的危险是百万分之5。

玉堇

smallcup 发表于 2021-4-8 16:23
The incidence of CVST has been estimated at three to five cases per million population per year

h ...

疫苗是集中打，所以不好用三个月的比例来比吧？

Lily1981

猫儿不笨 发表于 2021-4-8 16:10
The JCVI said there had been 79 reported cases of blood clots in the UK, out of more than 20 million ...

按人数来说 应该是25million 左右
35 million 是doses
除了英国打2针的多 ，
欧盟国家基本打了一针的多 ，
在欧盟的死亡案例报道出来都是第一针
我看了ECDC阿里斯康在欧盟的使用数据
这几个星期几乎没有变  已经悄悄抛弃阿里斯康了
法国本月四个厂开始大量生产辉瑞/ 摩德纳/ 强生供法国和欧盟使用

猫儿不笨

smallcup 发表于 2021-4-8 16:23
The incidence of CVST has been estimated at three to five cases per million population per year

h ...

英国前6周时间/约10million阿斯利康注射者时把脑栓塞归类于中风，而没有计算脑栓塞数据

证据是3月11日面对几个欧盟国家关于脑栓塞的惊疑时，英国声明他们没有一例。而到了3月18日，报道5例，到了3月25日一下增加为30例

猫儿不笨

Lily1981 发表于 2021-4-8 16:30
按人数来说 应该是25million 左右
35 million 是doses
除了英国打2针的多 ，

不对
英国在25/03/2021 出示30例/18.2million数据，28/03/2021 又报道新冠疫苗疫苗用了30million，可见当时英国用的疫苗有1/3 是辉瑞疫苗
在英国辉瑞疫苗比阿斯利康早接近4周开打，因为前者早四周获批。英国购买了40million辉瑞疫苗
打了第二针的应该都是辉瑞疫苗，二针相隔3-4周即可，而阿斯利康二针相隔8-12周
英国在三月底宣布了四月份是阿斯利康第二针之月

Lily1981

猫儿不笨 发表于 2021-4-8 17:02
不对
英国在25/03/2021 出示30例/18.2million数据，28/03/2021 又报道新冠疫苗疫苗用了30million，可见当 ...

Some 79 people had suffered rare blood clots after vaccination by the end of March in the UK - 19 of whom had died.
UK三月底一共79 例， 19 例死亡
这3月25日那30 例 后（ 7 人死亡）
又突然增加那么多？

Lily1981

Lily1981 发表于 2021-4-8 17:10
Some 79 people had suffered rare blood clots after vaccination by the end of March in the UK - 19  ...

这篇报道更加详细
With more than 20m doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine administered in the UK, 79 cases of clots have been reported and 19 people have died, the MHRA chief executive said.

Blood clot risk

Of the 79 cases, 51 occurred in women and 28 in men - aged from 18 to 79 years of age. Of the 19 deaths, three were in people aged under 30, with 14 of these cases involving cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST), and five 'other types of thrombosis' in major veins.

猫儿不笨

Lily1981 发表于 2021-4-8 17:10
Some 79 people had suffered rare blood clots after vaccination by the end of March in the UK - 19  ...

对呀5天之内有多出49例脑栓塞，而相信那时候打阿斯利康的已经大幅减少，太诡异了

一个可能是之前打了阿斯利康的，几周后，长达4-5周后，也发生脑栓塞了。是这样的话数据还会猛涨。。。

可怕呀，我是2周前打的阿斯利康，还要捱多久。。。

猫儿不笨

Lily1981 发表于 2021-4-8 17:57
这篇报道更加详细
With more than 20m doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine administered in the UK, 79 c ...

别忘了这20million里的前10million，是没有血栓塞报道的。。。

Lily1981

猫儿不笨 发表于 2021-4-8 18:01
别忘了这20million里的前10million，是没有血栓塞报道的。。。

也有可能把之前隐藏的案例都慢慢爆出来了
不一定是这短短5天发生的  

猫儿不笨

欧盟加UK：169/34 million
UK： 79/ 20million
所以 欧盟 90/14million，也就是说1/ 155555，或者说每15.5万人注射阿斯利康，会有一个血栓塞，而不是1/25万

事实已经说明这件事欧盟数据可靠，其也没有作弊动机
按照欧盟的数据得出的比例，英国的20million 阿斯利康疫苗接受者应该有129个血栓塞病例！足足算少了50个！
比我前面用另一个方法算出的相差40个病例还多！

猫儿不笨

欧盟是从2月初才开始注射阿斯利康，比英国慢了4-5周
所以我相信英国这50个病例是一开始被冷冻了/隐藏了
因为如果是因为注射4-5周后才开始有血栓塞或血栓塞病例增多，英国的阿斯利康相关血栓塞发病率应该高于欧盟的，而事实是相反！

kolinxu

一会儿有问题，一会儿没问题

我到底要信你哪一句话啊

Lily1981

猫儿不笨 发表于 2021-4-8 18:55
欧盟是从2月初才开始注射阿斯利康，比英国慢了4-5周
所以我相信英国这50个病例是一开始被冷冻了/隐藏了
因 ...

EMA 官网
As of 4 April 2021, a total of 169 cases of CVST and 53 cases of splanchnic vein thrombosis were reported to EudraVigilance. Around 34 million people had been vaccinated in the EEA and UK by this date .  
看来169 例光是脑静脉窦血栓
另外还有53例内脏静脉血栓 ？

猫儿不笨

kolinxu 发表于 2021-4-8 19:17
一会儿有问题，一会儿没问题

我到底要信你哪一句话啊

当然信有
就像河里钓鱼，钓不到不可能说河里没鱼，钓到了就可以肯定说河里有鱼了

猫儿不笨

Lily1981 发表于 2021-4-8 20:01
EMA 官网
As of 4 April 2021, a total of 169 cases of CVST and 53 cases of splanchnic vein thrombos ...

对，若加进那个数，英国早期隐藏的病例数就更大了，血栓塞发病率就更大了

peacepeace

猫儿不笨 发表于 2021-4-8 17:59
对呀5天之内有多出49例脑栓塞，而相信那时候打阿斯利康的已经大幅减少，太诡异了

一个可能是之前打了阿 ...

现在打了第一针的好郁闷

官方还让你打第二针，敢打吗？

猫儿不笨

欧盟加UK：169+ 53 /34 million
UK： 79/ 20million
所以 欧盟 90+ 53 /14million，也就是说1/ 97902，或者说每9.8万人注射阿斯利康，会有一个血栓塞，而不是1/25万
这与我一开始估算的1/100000 接近

事实已经说明这件事欧盟数据可靠，其也不像有作弊动机
按照欧盟的数据得出的比例，英国的20million 阿斯利康疫苗接受者应该有204个血栓塞病例！足足算少了125个！

猫儿不笨

peacepeace 发表于 2021-4-8 20:47
现在打了第一针的好郁闷

官方还让你打第二针，敢打吗？

目前看来是不敢打
UK基本都停打阿斯利康了，最终不会有很多人打第二针，难于有足够人群和数据来分析打两针的风险

Lily1981

猫儿不笨 发表于 2021-4-8 20:50
欧盟加UK：169+ 53 /34 million
UK： 79/ 20million
所以 欧盟 90+ 53 /14million，也就是说1/ 97902，或者 ...

刚刚看到UK死亡病例今天又多公布一个
59岁英国男律师
3月17 日打完阿里斯康第一针，于4月4日死亡
这个新死亡病例还没算进UK截止3月底的病例里