房地产价格有可能会大跌

Devil_Star

原帖由 auzhangsanfeng 于 2008-7-15 21:52 发表
房价下跌还看地区。个人觉得象悉尼这样的城市，即使有下跌但下跌幅度也不会很大。悉尼现在人口4-5M，大概是澳大利亚人口的20%。悉尼会是很多新移民的落脚点，再加上本地新增人口，各地进悉尼打工仔的流入，对房子有很 ...

NSW每年外流到外省和欧美的人员也不少， 近年来要是不靠外国移民， 就基本是负增长了。房租的增长是没办法， 被利率逼的， 那些涨幅只是勉强能缓解供息的一些压力而已， 远没能成为吸引投资者入场的动力。

黑山老妖

原帖由 newsfree 于 16/7/2008 02:05 发表


刚注意，我的注册时间比老夭还早，哈哈

说明潜水太久了。
多多参与哦。

白衣人

however demands in queensland are still strong, but many people just wait and see, they are petontial buyers, especially chinese, they always look for some bargins

黑山老妖

There might be a lot of POTENTIAL demands but the important thing is can these demands be met at the right price point. That is can the buyers afford the combination of housing price and interest payment. I believe most people are rational and does respond to market trend.

newlifeinsydney

请问妖兄，大跌究竟是指跌多少呢？何时入市才是最好的时机呢？

patricb

搬个凳子听。。。

语阁

原帖由 Devil_Star 于 2008-7-15 20:33 发表


你千万不要中意我住的区， 摆脱。

小心的问一句，您住哪个区。

patricb

原帖由 语阁 于 2008-7-16 09:42 发表

小心的问一句，您住哪个区。

估计他不敢告诉你，怕被惦记掉20％。

夢回唐朝

果真变了，一年前讨论会不会涨，现在讨论会不会跌

Melway

现在是在讨论跌多少。。。。

如果我现在说2008年度，melbourne地区的房屋均价增长还有5%，一定没有人信

gmail

关注中！！！！！！！！！！

西边雨

同关注......

rosa

waiting.......

Mathilda

想要买房  又被打消念头了

FAIRMONT

利率对房价是有影响的， 但是供需在那里，如果房价跌了，那么房租必然会大涨。到时候还是没房的人多掏钱。

长远讲， 随着利率见顶回落，房价将进一步升高，只是个时间问题。

FAIRMONT

投资是有风险，涨跌也很正常，关键是要看5年10年以后的情况。我认为目前是买房比较好的时候。等到人人都觉得价格合理了，那么房价又该涨了。

吃喝拉撒睡

原帖由 FAIRMONT 于 2008-7-16 12:23 发表
投资是有风险，涨跌也很正常，关键是要看5年10年以后的情况。我认为目前是买房比较好的时候。等到人人都觉得价格合理了，那么房价又该涨了。

it's pretty gloomy the monent. before it was simply a transfer of wealth when volatility kicks into market. now the actual wealth is being destroyed. different story.

黑山老妖

原帖由 夢回唐朝 于 16/7/2008 09:55 发表
果真变了，一年前讨论会不会涨，现在讨论会不会跌

A lot has happened in the last year... Damn Americans!

吃喝拉撒睡

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-7-16 12:31 发表

A lot has happened in the last year... Damn Americans!

they watched too much japaness porn and became too short no matter what position。

zn7726

A lot has happened in the last year... Damn Americans!

是呀... 去年老妖还看涨哪... 现在竟然开了这么个贴 ...

黑山老妖

原帖由 zn7726 于 16/7/2008 13:47 发表

是呀... 去年老妖还看涨哪... 现在竟然开了这么个贴 ...

subprime前看涨，subprime以后这世道。。。

zn7726

subprime前看涨，subprime以后这世道。。。

老妖见多识广, 能不能大胆的给前瞻一下, 看看这次要跌多久跌多深以及房价何时能回复到今年年初的水平. 肯定一堆人大把给你加分的.

Artcore

我也是这样认为的, 利息持续高涨, 房价不会升的, 只会跌.

而且银行批出的贷款越来越难, 假设你的收入变化不大,你贷歀能力随个利息增长也越来越低. 而且如果你没有首期房子20%的资金, LMI(贷款保险)也越来越难批出来.  也就是说即使贷款公司贷给你, 保险公司也不一定给你上保.

楼下的文章就是俺原来想表达的, it cannot be put in a better way than below.

Introduction
Despite high levels of migration and a shortage of stock, our property market is more closely tied to problems in the US than you might think.

Property's downward spiral (From BusinessSpectator.com.au)

Author: Robert Gottliebsen

I was talking at a function about property values recently and those in attendance were quick to ask me how dwelling prices can fall when migrations levels remain very high. Separately, they also wanted to know if this was the beginning of a big shift to a society where younger people do not aspire to own their own home but instead follow a pattern of renting like they do in Europe.

Property values are only supported by what buyers are prepared to pay and in most cases, what buyers are prepared to pay is restricted by what the banks are prepared to lend. So, if you go to your bank and they say they will lend you $500k on a particular dwelling and you have $200k in cash then the odds are that you will spend up to $700k. But if the bank says they will only loan $400k because their criteria is tighter or because of higher interest rates, then you will only bid up to $600k. So banks play an enormous role in setting house prices.

They also set the price for developmental land. It is now very clear that in the light of tougher bank lending criteria, certain developers paid far too much for land and big haircuts may be required. Overall housing demand is also part of the price equation for land and buildings. What we have seen in western Sydney and the outer areas in most capitals, is that people simply have not been able to get enough money from the banks to buy at the old prices.

Prospective buyers of property are often contractors whose incomes are now lower, or not as secure as they once were, which has prompted the banks to cut back the amount they are prepared to lend even further and therefore contributes to the declining value of property once more. In the US the withdrawal of lending has been catastrophic for house prices, but in Australia we have been insulated by the relative shortage of dwellings and the better overall position enjoyed by our banks.

But given the importance of banks in setting house prices, the housing shortage won’t stop the fall. Of course banks have to be very careful when they reduce the values of properties by altering their lending criteria. As the banks drive down the values of houses they wipe out equity in a home which can lead to defaults if incomes are hit at the same time.

Will renting play a more significant role in Australia's future? A lot of young people are looking at the problems being faced by those who went into deep debt and are asking whether it's worth setting themselves up for the same painful experience. Rents are rising which shows that there is both a strong demand for rental property and that supply is constrained. The great advantage of renting is that it allows greater flexibility of the labour force.

But home ownership is deeply ingrained into Australian society and it has provided many of us with enormous wealth. It will be hard to break from tradition. Most migrants coming to Australia will also aspire to own their own homes. We are going to see a large number of houses come onto the market as a result of mortgage difficulties and these dwellings will be priced substantially below peak levels. That will make it easier for people to buy and will also attract a lot of investors who will see higher yields. Unlike private home ownership, they can deduct their interest for tax.

That increase in rental stock will foster a change in demand but if our society moves to a nation made up predominately of renters then that will have an even bigger impact on the way we live.

黑山老妖

原帖由 Artcore 于 16/7/2008 14:07 发表


楼下的文章就是俺原来想表达的, it cannot be put in a better way than below.

Introduction
Despite high levels of migration and a shortage of stock, our property market is more closely tied to p ...

Yes, read this one too. I think it sums everything up very nicely.

jj61184

房价涨跌，还是要看地区呀，有些地方实在是只涨不跌，一辈子买不起。

SOSHELPPLZ

原帖由 jj61184 于 2008-7-16 14:34 发表
房价涨跌，还是要看地区呀，有些地方实在是只涨不跌，一辈子买不起。

还真没见过哪个区是只涨不跌的.

江上往来人

悉尼北岸的房子也有开始跌价的了.

每周六的房产广告上2.3周前已经开始出现PRICE REDUCED.了

Devil_Star

这周末刚从NELSON BAY回来， 那边的豪宅也有跌的趋势～

Devil_Star

原帖由 patricb 于 2008-7-16 09:46 发表

估计他不敢告诉你，怕被惦记掉20％。

是啊， 目前还涨得好好的， 不希望被震下去～

philongyao

http://www.propertyinvesting.com ... perty-market-update

[ 本帖最后由 philongyao 于 2008-7-16 23:38 编辑 ]