|
|
此文章由 黑山老妖 原创或转贴，不代表本站立场和观点，版权归 oursteps.com.au 和作者 黑山老妖 所有！转贴必须注明作者、出处和本声明，并保持内容完整
年底人民币兑美元：7.3:1？
Chinese economists fear yuan's rise
BEIJING - Ahead of US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's three-day visit to China beginning on Monday, some Chinese economists are warning of the risks of the yuan's continued appreciation as it hit a record high against the US dollar on Wednesday. When he meets with President Hu Jintao and other top Beijing officials, Paulson is expected to press China for great flexibility of its currency.
The yuan stood at 7.5596 to the dollar on Wednesday, up 129 basis points from Tuesday's 7.5725.
It is the 54th time that the yuan's value hit a record this year, and
also the highest rate since the yuan was revalued by 2.1% from 8.28 to the dollar in July 2005.
This week, the US Senate Finance Committee scheduled a vote on legislation that seeks to sanction China for its currency policy, which US manufacturers say is undervalued by as much as 40%. That makes it cheaper for Chinese products to be sold in the United States and more expensive for US products sold in China.
On Wednesday, the central parity rate of the yuan against the euro went up 352 basis points from Tuesday's figure to stand at 10.4368, while yuan's value against the Japanese yen gained 240 basis points to 6.3031 yuan against 100 yen.
Analysts said the quicker pace of the yuan's appreciation was closely related to the central bank's announcement to raise the benchmark interest rates last Friday.
Some Chinese economists are worried that the yuan's continued appreciation will attract more speculative funds into the country and worsen the excessive liquidity problem faced by the government.
Tan Yaling, a research analyst with the Bank of China, has warned that the continued rise of the yuan may adversely affect the country's economic and financial security, with the yuan rising at a faster pace than previously since the beginning of this year.
The Chinese currency rose in small steps during the first year after the central bank dropped the peg to the US dollar in July 2005 and linked the yuan to a basket of foreign currencies.
The driving force behind the yuan's appreciation then was economic growth itself and the progress in the financial sector, said Tan. However, in 2006 and 2007, the appreciation of the yuan picked up speed, and became a focus for global investors and speculators.
Meanwhile, the yuan's rise is becoming more closely related to the performance of the US dollar. The central parity price of the yuan rises against the weak dollar, and the pressure of appreciation should be relieved when the dollar rebounds.
China's central bank announced in May that it would allow the yuan to fluctuate against the US dollar by 0.5% a day, up from the previous 0.3%, in a bid to make the currency more flexible.
The real value of the yuan has gone up by 4.41% since it was revalued in July 2005, according to the latest statistics from the Bank for International Settlements.
The accelerating pace of yuan revaluation and the amounting pressure for yuan appreciation are independent of the country's monetary policy, said Tan, adding that the trend might be going against the real situation of the Chinese economy.
Many, including US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, said the yuan appreciation was in China's interest. But Tan said people such as Bernanke have focused too much on the price of the currency and ignored the structural problems of China's economy and its financial sector. The Chinese economy is still at the low end of a market economy, compared with the more developed economies to which the yuan is linked, in terms of technologies, production efficiency, industrial development and consumption, she said.
The country would face great risks with a strong yuan in the long run if it failed to improve the quality of its economy to support the currency, Tan warned. She said she is worried that a stronger yuan would reduce or even eliminate the profits of China's labor-intensive manufacturing sector, while foreign investors would snatch fat profits on the back of low-cost labor in China and become a dominant factor in the economy.
However, Ha Jimin, chief economist with China International Capital Corp, argued that the accelerating yuan appreciation may help ease trade frictions, lower the pressure from imported inflation, and force exporting companies to upgrade their industrial structure.
Ding Zhijie with the University of International Business and Economics warned that the persistent market anticipation of the yuan's appreciation might lead China into a trap of attracting more liquidity for its relatively low interest rates. Ding said the Chinese government should try not to follow Japan's example in the 1980s when the bubbles burst in the real-estate sector and stock market.
Both Ding and Ha said the pressure of appreciation will continue because of the country's high economic-growth rate and accumulating foreign-exchange reserves, and predicted that the value of the Chinese currency would rise to 7.3 yuan to the US dollar by the end of the year if the dollar maintained its performance.
Ha said it would at least take three years to ease the pressure for further appreciation of the yuan.
Tan said the government should do more research to identify the yuan's actual value and equilibrium price to avoid risks from the yuan's appreciation in a single direction.
Fan Gang, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, however, is against deliberately bringing down the anticipation of yuan appreciation, and said the yuan's revaluation should be tied to market supply and demand. |
|
《年底税务知识分享 (1) －最容易被忽视的税务回扣》 (2008-6-9) Artcore 
楼主:TheWayIam
发表于 2007-7-18 21:49
