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THE Australian dollar is marching towards $US1.10 as it extends its record run, which most analysts say shows no signs of stopping.
In the Asian foreign exchange trading sessions yesterday, the dollar was at a post-float high of $US1.0736, maintaining its position as one of the best-performing currencies in the world. The rally is expected to continue as Australia experiences a generational terms-of-trade boom.
Figures on trade price data published this week show that Australia's terms of trade were up 21 per cent for the year to March.
The Australian dollar has also prompted a dramatic tightening in the current account deficit to its lowest point in more than two decades.
On Thursday, the dollar leapt US2c on the back of the improved export data, which was its largest-one-day move since December.
The performance slated the Aussie as the best-performing G10 currency, which analysts said was also attributable to the better outlook in equities and commodity prices. Gold settled above $US1500 for the first time, after trading above that mark for the past three days.
Exchange, the most actively traded contract, for June delivery, settled at $US1503.80 per troy ounce, up 0.3 per cent, or $US4.90, after hitting an intra-day record of $US1509.60.
National Australia Bank currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos said the Australian dollar should remain high, supported by an appetite among international investors for more risky assets in hope of higher returns. "We remain comfortable with our view that the Australian dollar will trade between $US1 and $US1.10 over the next six months," Mr Kyriakopoulos said.
"The two rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia that we forecast are not priced by the market. Australian economic growth is starting to pick up, and we can see further falls in the unemployment rate triggering another step up in RBA rate hike expectations over coming months.
"The likelihood that the US doesn't raise interest rates over the next six months is rising, suggesting a slim possibility of a sharp rebound in the US dollar."
The Producer Price Index, a measure of wholesale inflation, rose 1.2 per cent in the March quarter, beating economists' expectation of a 1 per cent increase. The result prompted economists to speculate on a rise in the Consumer Price Index, which would encourage the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates.
A rate rise would further extend the gap between Australia's official cash rate and the rest of the world, affecting the yield between the local dollar and major world currencies.
A yield rise would probably prompt foreign investors, especially from Japan, to buy the local dollar.
"The yen-funded carry trade could continue to boost demand for the Australian dollar as the Bank of Japan increases quantitative easing, which implies Japan's interest rates will remain at zero for years to come," Mr Kyriakopoulos said.
The local dollar has gained ground against most major currencies, not just the weak greenback.
It has gained 13 per cent against the Japanese yen since March but was hammered shortly after the March 11 earthquake and subsequent tsunami and nuclear threats.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/ ... rg916-1226043499968
[ 本帖最后由 aussie88 于 2011-4-24 23:10 编辑 ] |
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元宵 (2009-2-9) 高寿财 
发表于 2011-4-23 09:05
