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House prices up 20% Simon Johanson
October 13, 2010
AUSTRALIAN house prices may rise by up to 20 per cent over the next three years, despite interest rates possibly reaching 9.1 per cent, but Melbourne will miss out on most of the price growth, according to a respected business forecaster.
A QBE Housing Outlook 2010-13 survey compiled by BIS Shrapnel forecasts house price growth of between 9 and 20 per cent in Australia's capitals over the next three years, the result of a stronger economy and undersupply of housing.
Prices in Perth, Sydney and Adelaide are forecast to grow by up to 20 per cent and Brisbane and Hobart are expected to rise 15 and 13 per cent respectively. Melbourne, Darwin and Canberra will grow the least.
Advertisement: Story continues below Strong growth in Melbourne house prices last year and early this year combined with a higher level of housing construction - more than in any other state - and worsening housing affordability would slow the city's price growth over the next three years to 9 per cent, below that of all other capitals, the BIS report said.
The forecast follows concern voiced by some economists and international investors that Australia's housing market is overpriced and may be verging on a property bubble.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs recently dismissed suggestions that Australia was experiencing a housing bubble, but said property prices were overvalued by as much as 35 per cent.
Last August, the national median house price dropped 0.2 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms to $457,000, knocking $8000 off the median price for July.
But BIS Shrapnel said strengthening economic conditions and an undersupply of housing in most states should provide substantial upward pressure on house prices.
''Economic growth is also forecast to continue to accelerate, fuelling employment and income growth,'' the report said. ''Price growth is expected to generally peak in 2012-13 as economic growth also peaks.''
Demand for housing from first home buyers was not expected to improve until next year.
Australia's housing market has so far proved more resilient than most other developed nations, partly because of population growth and commodity exports.
In the report, BIS Shrapnel forecasts that variable interest rates will peak at 9.1 per cent in 2013.
''This will ultimately have a slowing effect on the economy and prices, although there may be one last gasp for price growth in some cities in 2012-13 where there is a large deficiency, or affordability is not strained,'' the report says.
''We expect price rises will be underpinned by a deficiency of dwelling stocks across most capital cities, which in turn will lead to tight vacancy rates and solid rental growth, flowing through to increased investor demand,'' said QBE chief executive Ian Graham, who commissioned the report.
Another report released yesterday shows mortgage stress is being felt most in the middle to outer suburbs, but there were fewer delinquencies - defined as failing to pay one or more mortgage payments - in Victoria than other states.
A survey by Moody's Investor Services of residential mortgage-backed securities suggests that most areas in Melbourne have performed reasonably well in terms of loan arrears.
转自：http://www.watoday.com.au/busine ... 20101012-16hr6.html |
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