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发表于 2018-12-17 10:52
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本帖最后由 zhangsaen 于 2019-4-23 10:07 编辑
22/04/2019
15/04/2019
今天的ATM A2M
12/04/2019
关注的人越来越少了！
Interesting commentary on the China market by an analyst, with also comments on A2M further down. A2 rated as a hold based on potential selling down of shares by directors in May/June.
Key takeaways –market demographics
China will be the biggest market in the world shortly.
Demand driven economy. Domestic consumption accounted for 76% of China’s GDP growth in 2018 due to the rising purchasing power of the middle-class.
Falling birth rate –Fell 12% in 2018 to 15.2m babies. First child births will continue to decline given the cost of living is rising. Over 50% of the new births are the second child and this trend will continue to grow as having a second child is a sign of prosperity.
Aging population -Last year, the number of Chinese over 60 reached 249.5m to outnumber those under 16 for the first time in history. There will be over 500m by 2050. China's one child policy means the current retirees are the first generation to have only 1 child to look after 2 sets of parents. This is a problem and destabilises the tradition of taking care of the elder generation.
Over the next decade approx. 500m people are expected to move into the cities and industrialised jobs from rural communities. Urbanisation is happening at 40-50m people pa.
Tier 2 and 3 cities with smaller populations and GDP remain a significant and largely untapped source of growth. 70% of the increase in Alibaba's active consumers in the last quarter came from Tier 3 and 4 cities. Tier 1 cities make up just 5.1% of China’s population. Government wants to curb population growth in Tier 1 cities, citing 'big city problems' and shift the
Key takeaways –government relationships
Australia/China Government relationship isn’t as bad as you read in the press, but it is far from perfect. Since late 2017, the relationship has gone through a difficult period. This has happened in the past and the relationship has improved. The current relationship is better than it was six months ago, however there are issues. There will always be difficulties.
Australian exports continue to grow strongly to China (bi-lateral trade is up (+11.7% to A$170bn), particularly resources, agriculture, consumer products, tourism etc.
China Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has helped trade. In its fourth year now. Most tariffs are now heading to 0%. Makes Australian products more competitive.
China US Trade War is getting closer to an agreement. If one is achieved, don’t think everything is suddenly perfect. Key will be if China sticks to the deal. Australian Government
Key takeaways –regulatory environment
Government in cracking down on the daigou and encouraging trade through CBEC platforms (increasing bonded warehouses, reducing tax). Chinese daigounow needs to be registered as a business (have a license), pay tax etc. Should reduce fake products. All about protecting the consumer.
Australia Post‘ concept stores’ in Australia are seeing no slowdown in the daigou trade.
From 9 April, China State Council cut the tariffs from 15% to 13% for baggage brought by individuals and products mailed into China on food to expand imports and consumption.
SAMR approval delays to sell into bricks and mortar–merging of departments into one has delayed approvals. Vitamin companies need Blue Hat approval (costly and lengthy process) and infant formula companies need SAMR register to sell in traditional retail formats.
While the regulatory environment may change, the Chinese Government knows its people want imported food products.
Australian imports are minuscule vs what China can produce. Therefore Brand Australia can’t become too big.
China Government wants to grow and support its dairy industry however there isn’t enough farmland, cows or processing to make a material difference. 40% of the land in China is polluted.
Key takeaways –consumer trends and preferences
Chinese continue to want foreign products. They want choice. The middle class doesn’t trust its domestic production, particularly dairy.
Child inherits parents/grandparents apartment therefore they don’t save and spend on luxury goods/services. Luxury goods represent success.
Chinese are obsessed about living forever. Big focus on health and beauty products.
The Chinese want our clean, green, quality and importantly safe products. Blueberries, avocados and coffee are growth categories in the food/agrispace.
Need to have a strong brand presence in Australia to have legitimacy in China. Need scale, a genuine brand, capital and distribution agreements to be a success in China.
Quality Australian and New Zealand brands have a strong shelf presence in China (particularly in Tier 1 and 2 cities). They sell at a material price premium in China vs at home.
Counterfeit is an issue –however it is also a sign of a brand’s success.
Australian products are popular in China due to the daigous/tourists (1.4m Chinese visited Australia last year). Most Australian companies haven’t been good at marketing in China.
China is not one economy –each region has different consumer characteristics and purchasing behaviour and marketing approaches need to take this into account.
Key takeaways -consumer trends and preferences
Chinese demand for imported international brands has created a huge, high-growth market for cross-border e-commerce (CBEC). Over the past couple of Singles’ Days, Australian products have been the third and fourth highest ranking country. CBEC has less regulations and is easier to sell on. It is often cheaper for Chinese shoppers to buy Western brands from cross-border platforms than to buy them from Chinese shops.VAT has recently reduced to 9.1% from 11.2% which should further support CBEC demand.
China’s internet population stood at 829m at the end of 2018.
WeChat is the most prevalent sales channel/tool for Australian businesses.
Chinese are addicted to their smart phones. They skipped the credit card phenomenon and pay on their phones. Alipay has over 900m registered users
Chinese are the most researched consumer ever. Need a deep understanding of the product first to buy it. Celebrity endorsements help. Scanning QR codes with a smart phone provides the consumer with detailed product information.
Economic update:
China economic news is improving. Although growth has slowed, it is far from over. Stimulus such as tax cuts etc are helping. In March, China’s manufacturing PMI had its largest gain since February 2012. The on the ground view is very different to press reports with 72% of businesses having a positive
Key takeaways –‘New Retail’
New Retail, digital and mobile payments are fundamentally changing the way consumers research and buy products.
In 2017, 'New Retail' was introduced by Alibaba’s Founder Jack Ma.
New Retail aims to remove the distinction between online and offline retail and marketing experiences. Called O2O –offline to online.
Alibaba has developed HEMA stores -a department store offering high-quality domestic and foreign FMCGs and produce. Outletsprovide a physical and digital shopping experience. Every item on shelf is supported by a digital source of comprehensive product information and usually some other media (scan the QR code with your phone). HEMA offers home delivery in under 30 minutes to customers.
A2 Milk Company (A2M)
A2 Platinum infant formula, milk and milk powder have a strong presence in China.
A2 Platinum infant formula benefits from SAMR approval –can sell in bricks and mortar (1H19 sales were 15% of infant formula sales).
Continues to win market share in China and trade strongly.
Spending a lot of money marketing in China and increasing its resources on the ground.
Has not experienced any adverse impacts from the new China e-commerce rules.
Feedback was A2M has done a good job in China and parents know the brand. It has strong government relationships.
ASX listed China leveraged consumer picks
Buy:
TWE–attractively priced relative to its long dated strong growth profile.
AVG –value play at ~35% discount to NTA, growing branded sales and gradual return on capex.
Hold:
A2M –rate this company highly however management share sale in May/June could provide a more attractive entry point.
CGC –diversified business, industry leader and strong management team, looking for a more attractive entry point for downside protection against agri risk (volatility in price and volumes).
SHV –improved operating conditions and rising almond price is largely factored into its share price.
Too expensive:
BKL –3Q19 trading update will likely disappoint. Underperforming vs Swisse. Need to appoint a new CEO (potential to clear the decks). FY20 PEG ratio of 2.0x.
FNP –great portfolio of brands and assets however need to deliver (execution has been an issue) and trading on premium multiple.
BAL -after strong share price appreciation, SAMR is starting to be priced in. Short term downside risks. Share price will likely retrace the longer it takes to receive SAMR.
20/02/2019
本周三（2月20日）新西兰乳业巨头The a2 Milk Company（ASX:A2M）公布了2019上半财年年报，半年净利润增长50％以上，尽管中国需求放缓，该公司仍在这期间扩大了市场份额。
截至12月31日的六个月内，The a2 Milk Company总收入为6.131亿新元，增长41.0％；息税前利润为2.184亿新元，同比增长52.7％；税后净利润为1.527亿新元，同比增长55.1％；每股基本盈利（EPS）为20.9新分，同比增长52.9％。
在公司的产品线中，婴儿配方奶粉收入为4.955亿新元，增长了45.3％。
公告中称，The a2 Milk Company中国标签产品收入同比增长82.6％，中国业务收入增至1.71亿新元，增幅50.1％，息税前利润增长41.6％至6840万新元。
“据最近12个月的数据，我们的Kantar婴儿配方奶粉在中国一线城市的市场份额上升至5.7％，高于去年同期的4.4％，也高于2018年6月底的5.1％。” The a2 Milk Company说。
近期The a2 Milk Company在中国二、三、四线城市加大了投资，也取得相应成果。据最近12个月数据，产品市场份额达到了5.4％，而在2018年6月，公司产品在中国一线城市和关键二、三、四线城市的综合市场份额为4.7％
The a2 Milk Company称，以上业绩数据表明了该公司在中国中小城市增长的强劲势头。店铺渠道的增长，加上公司更大的分销布局，支持了中文标签婴幼儿配方奶粉销量增长。
公告中预计公司下半年的收入增长将与上半年大体一致。
The a2 Milk Company股价在2018年上涨了38％，远超大盘和行业同类个股。
（郑重声明：ACB News《澳华财经在线》对本文保留全部著作权限
19/02/2019
澳佳宝股价大跌现巨型跳空缺口 市值单日蒸发数亿
澳佳宝（Blackmores，ASX: BKL）盘中一度击穿2017年6-8月间构筑的小双底，彼时的两个重要股价低点在87澳元价位附近。
股价创出近三年新低，从技术上确认了澳佳宝在2015年年底股价登顶之后, 其股价自200澳元关口（最高股价一度触及220澳元）下跌至今，历时3年的走势为中期调整行情，尽管2017年下半年有一波价格几近翻番（股价自87澳元的上升至166澳元）的行情，但今日的股价表现表明，2017年下半年的行情更多是中期调整中的一波反弹而已。
A2M
https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_df7e2fbeab46cc9fe1b791f2b6232fef.png
18/02/2019
Goldman Sachs report China Consumer Conections, linked below
https://research.commsec.com.au/LoadPDF?docKey=B64ENCeyJkayI6IjI3NDgtYTY3MTEyMDM3ZjVhNDgyZjhmODU3MWQ1OWI1Mjk2ZmUtMSIsImZpZCI6bnVsbCwiZHQiOm51bGx9
16/02/2019
2018年的婴幼儿奶粉市场群雄逐鹿，进口奶粉依然把持江山，然而国产奶粉奋力突围，成绩也是不俗。
受618和双11两次大促提振，销售额在6月和11月分别出现两次峰值，不过很明显11月的销售额远远高于其他各月。
品牌方面，TOP10中8成都是进口奶粉品牌，合计市场份额近70%，其中TOP4品牌之间差距较小，竞争胶着。不过，飞鹤与伊利分别跻身榜单，排名第7和第8位。
奶粉单品中，以惠氏、美素佳儿以及A2几个品牌旗下单品较为出众，分别都有多款单品上榜。另外，从婴幼儿奶粉单品排行来看，3段奶粉以及900g规格类型奶粉更为受欢迎。
15/02/2019
A2M Corporate Calendar
Any sniff of worry and down she goes.
Keep panicking as it will only make the bounce stronger.
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