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发表于 2015-10-30 06:28
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Sydney house price growth to slump next year, NAB says
The outlook for Sydney house prices is darkening, the latest NAB Residential Property Survey shows.
The outlook for Sydney house prices is darkening, the latest NAB Residential Property Survey shows. Anna Kucera
House-price growth in Sydney will hit the brakes even harder than expected next year, as slow income growth and tighter credit to investors bite, the latest National Australia Bank Residential Property Survey shows.
Faster than expected price growth in the two largest cities will be followed by a steeper downturn next year, the bank said.
"The story is all about Sydney and Melbourne," NAB Group chief economist Alan Oster said.
"In our forecast, we've ramped up our numbers for 2015 because Sydney and Melbourne are so stoked, and basically lowered them for next year."
The report, which updates NAB's previous survey in June, also shows tighter credit rules have overtaken affordability as the biggest constraint on new housing development, echoing the findings of a separate industry survey this week.
Sydney has the biggest proportion of investor activity in the residential housing market of any city in the country.
Credit constraint
"Tight credit has re-emerged as the biggest (and growing) constraint for new housing development, led by NSW, WA and Victoria," the report said.
"Housing affordability (especially in Victoria & NSW) and construction costs (mainly Victoria, SA/NT & Qld) are the next biggest constraints, with the level of concern also somewhat higher than in the second quarter."
NAB has raised its prediction for price growth nationally this calendar year to 9.1 per cent from from 6.1 per cent just three months ago.
This reflects its revision of Sydney prices to 14.6 per cent this year, from 10.2 per cent, and Melbourne to a much larger 15.2 per cent from 6.5 per cent for this year.
But it has lowered its expectations for national price growth next calendar to 2.3 per cent from 6.1 per cent, cutting its Sydney expectations to 1.2 per cent from 3.9 per cent. Melbourne is little changed at 3 per cent compared with a predicted 3.1 per cent in June.
The report also showed foreign buyers accounted for 19 per cent of all new apartment sales and 14.9 per cent of all new house sales in the September quarter.
Foreign investors continue to play a far bigger role in Victoria than any other state, accounting for 28.5 per cent of total demand in the new apartment market and 26 per cent of new houses, up from 16.7 per cent in the June quarter.
"These ratios were significantly higher in Victoria, where foreign buyers accounted for around one in five of all established apartment sales and just over one in six houses", Mr Oster said. |
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