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发表于 2015-10-30 06:25
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No point delaying RBA rate cut if case stacks up
Arguments in favour of an official interest cut next Tuesday include another downward shift in the terms of trade in the last quarter, iron ore back to less than $US50 a tonne for the first time since July, increased signs of a slowing housing market, and a perceived need to offset some of October's big-bank mortgage rate hikes.
Arguments in favour of an official interest cut next Tuesday include another downward shift in the terms of trade in the last quarter, iron ore back to less than $US50 a tonne for the first time since July, increased signs of a slowing housing market, and a perceived need to offset some of October's big-bank mortgage rate hikes. Robert Shakespeare
The Reserve Bank of Australia is weighing up whether to deploy its dwindling interest-rate ammunition.
Arguments in favour of pulling the trigger on an official interest cut next Tuesday include another downward shift in the terms of trade in the last quarter, iron ore back to less than $US50 a tonne for the first time since July, increased signs of a slowing housing market, and a perceived need to offset some of October's big-bank mortgage rate hikes.
On the domestic front, the most important swing factor for governor Glenn Stevens and his board might turn out to be a desire to give consumers an end-of-year boost. In which case, with the Christmas spending season less than four weeks away, the board will be acutely aware that any official rate cut would take up to a month for commercial banks to pass on to customers.
In other words, if the central bank thinks there is a case for a move, there's little point waiting until December, when a reduction would really only boost household cash flow as people head off into the long summer break.
That would potentially make it a wasted cut, something the central bank can ill-afford, given the cash rate is already at a record low 2 per cent.
Perhaps even more significant are the global realities bearing down on the central bank's thinking.
Global growth is weakening, a range of forecasts in recent weeks show, ranging from the International Monetary Fund to the Reserve Bank's own experts.
Much-needed shock absorber
The dollar, at last fulfilling its role as a much-needed shock absorber for the economy, could be pushed up by what might turn out to be another flood of global quantitative easing and interest rate cuts.
"The European Central Bank has pre-announced [more easing], there's a risk throughout the rest of east-Asia that you'll get a wave of easing, and in New Zealand it's clear they're steeling themselves to ease as well," says Goldman Sachs senior economist Tim Toohey, who has a longstanding prediction that the Reserve Bank cash rate will be cut to 1.75 per cent on Tuesday.
The need to keep the Australian dollar in the low US70¢ range has only intensified in recent weeks, with commodity prices sliding again. Figures out Thursday showed the terms of trade probably slipped another 1.4 per cent in the September quarter. They are now about 30 per cent below their 2011 peak, none of which will be welcome news in the revenue-constrained federal government, which is preparing for the mid-year budget update in December.
"In the absence of any new source of growth coming in the next six months, there's not enough stimulus," Mr Toohey said.
He believes the Reserve Bank will acknowledge next week the growing impact of drought and waning dwelling investment when it updates its quarterly forecasts.
"Growth is materially below potential, and that's their mandate," he told The Australian Financial Review. "It's not house prices or worrying about events that may or may not happen."
Domestic demand is weak
Expectations for a rate cut next week surged to 52 per cent from less than 30 per cent after the September quarter inflation data showed headline consumer prices rose just 1.5 per cent, clear evidence that domestic demand is weak.
Mr Toohey challenged analysts who believe the slide in the inflation rate, which has averaged 1.5 per cent for the past four quarters, is due to "one-off factors" that will reverse soon.
"Inflation is not only low, it's incredibly low," he said.
More items from the benchmark consumer price basket are rising slower than the Reserve Bank's 2 to 3 per cent range than those rising at a faster rate.
"Dispersion measures of the CPI basket, where you look at the number of items that are either above or below the mid-point of the target band, show you have to go back to 1995 to find such unified weakness in inflationary pressures," Mr Toohey said.
"This is not just one or two things holding down the inflation number, this is broad-based."
Same deflationary pressures
Asked whether this means Australia is now vulnerable to the same deflationary pressures that have bedevilled other advanced economies over the past seven years since the 2008 global financial crisis, Mr Toohey said he doubted the Reserve Bank saw it as "so low it's problematic".
"But there's been a vein of research that shows when you get into these low-inflation environments it's very hard to regenerate wage and inflation expectations," he said.
"And that can be problematic, in that people shift their spending and investment decisions. If you've been so far below the headline target for 12 months, you wouldn't want that to persist."
While there are huge risks associated with another interest rate cut – not least from a financial stability point of view – the Reserve Bank probably sees the case for a cut. |
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