房地产价格有可能会大跌

黑山老妖

文章大意：股市大跌后的6-18个月房地产市场也会大跌。当然也会有一些地方不跟大势。这次也不会例外。唯一值得庆幸的是这次我们没有太多的闲置房。建筑业的成本被矿产和基础建设拉高，商业房和居住房受到很大压力。随着价格下跌和房租会上升，投资回报会慢慢提升。

Property will tumble

In traditional markets shares fall and then six to 18 months later the property markets take a tumble. After the 1987 share crash property actually rose in value before coming tumbling down around 18 months after the big share fall.

This time around we are seeing a much closer link between the property and share markets. Housing markets around the country are in decline and commercial property is very soft. And the fall in the listed property trusts signals more than just unhappiness with the listed property trust model. We are likely to see a substantial fall in commercial property values in the wake of the decline.

Naturally in both the housing and commercial property market there will always be pockets where there are markets that move against the trends.

The Reserve Bank will not be unhappy with a fall in the housing market and believes that the fall in both commercial and domestic property will be reduced by the fact there are no current gluts.

What is not widely understood is that the Reserve Bank has concluded that the enormous investment planned for resources and infrastructure means that the housing and commercial property markets have to take it on the chin to avoid a blow-out in costs in the sector.

Interest rates will remain at high levels until the rump on the infrastructure investment passes – though there could still be interest rate falls if the downturn gathers momentum or there is a serious overseas situation.

But any interest rate fall will be governed by the need to keep the housing sector subdued.

This will have serious consequences for those building companies that are not involved in resources and/or infrastructure.

It will also cause sharp rises in rent. Also, the yield on investment housing will rise as values slip but the rate of new building is held back.

It is a very narrow path that the Reserve Bank is treading.

[ 本帖最后由 黑山老妖 于 2008-7-23 16:37 编辑 ]

小小强

手头米房， 坐观其变

大饼

正在和卖家谈价格。犹豫中。

jialiren

THAN KS FOR SHARING

语阁

真是利好消息，如果我中意的区能跌20%就好了

zn7726

老妖的头像又换回来了? 昨天还是熊猫哪.

黑山老妖

没换啊。用ctrl+f5

Artcore

我也是这样认为的, 利息持续高涨, 房价不会升的, 只会跌.

而且银行批出的贷款越来越难, 假设你的收入变化不大,你贷歀能力随个利息增长也越来越低. 而且如果你没有首期房子20%的资金, LMI(贷款保险)也越来越难批出来.  也就是说即使贷款公司贷给你, 保险公司也不一定给你上保.

lisacai

(paopaobing(11)) 哭死我们刚刚买好房。

bulaohu

楼上国宝碰面

黑山老妖

原帖由 bulaohu 于 15/7/2008 17:14 发表
楼上国宝碰面

我的比较cute。

bulaohu

臭美

MingDeng

Learning...Thanks for sharing!

intel5858

最近房租涨得很厉害。。。

Anyway：老妖的头像在我这儿是以前的头像

对酒当歌

跌得惨不忍睹的是RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SITE，
终端销售价格无法上去，开发成本升高。

唯一的办法榨取DEVELOPMENT MARGIN就是去砍价，砍买地的价格。估计能跌个30%-40%。

floodp

老妖的新面孔看着真不习惯

Devil_Star

原帖由 语阁 于 2008-7-15 16:53 发表
真是利好消息，如果我中意的区能跌20%就好了

你千万不要中意我住的区， 摆脱。

黑山老妖

原帖由 floodp 于 15/7/2008 19:40 发表
老妖的新面孔看着真不习惯

看来这个头像很不受欢迎啊。。。考虑再换一个。

吃喝拉撒睡

看得我挺郁闷的...年初卖的不够多。

现在又在申请appartments。坏的都给说中了。

黑山老妖

原帖由 吃喝拉撒睡 于 15/7/2008 20:36 发表
看得我挺郁闷的...年初卖的不够多。

现在又在申请appartments。坏的都给说中了。

墨尔本现在还不算太坏吧？

吃喝拉撒睡

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-7-15 20:37 发表


墨尔本现在还不算太坏吧？

还好。bid-ask spread大了不少。价格总体统统降了10%。最近交易量又大了一点。难道是传说中的死猫跳？

zn7726

死猫跳 = 回光返照?

黑山老妖

那不是现在先跑？

吃喝拉撒睡

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-7-15 20:41 发表
那不是现在先跑？

恩。好好考虑一下。

auzhangsanfeng

房价下跌还看地区。个人觉得象悉尼这样的城市，即使有下跌但下跌幅度也不会很大。悉尼现在人口4-5M，大概是澳大利亚人口的20%。悉尼会是很多新移民的落脚点，再加上本地新增人口，各地进悉尼打工仔的流入，对房子有很大需求。目前还没有听说房租会降低，如果房价下跌会吸引租房者和投资者入场。所以个人认为从供需角度看，目前是探明底部等待反转。

吃喝拉撒睡

原帖由 auzhangsanfeng 于 2008-7-15 21:52 发表
房价下跌还看地区。个人觉得象悉尼这样的城市，即使有下跌但下跌幅度也不会很大。悉尼现在人口4-5M，大概是澳大利亚人口的20%。悉尼会是很多新移民的落脚点，再加上本地新增人口，各地进悉尼打工仔的流入，对房子有很 ...

这些道理10年来都没变过。不具备说服力。

西关少爷

when I was doing my Property Analysis with SIA, my lecturer, an economist in one of big 4 told us how risky the market was and he reckoned the property would crush in 6 mths time.  This was back ealy 2000s.

西门吹哨

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-7-15 17:01 发表
没换啊。用ctrl+f5

ctrl+F5 怎么就变了呢？

newsfree

买房，头痛的问题

newsfree

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-7-15 20:41 发表
那不是现在先跑？

刚注意，我的注册时间比老夭还早，哈哈