RBA说汇率和房价会跌？还是烟幕弹？

tu2011

今天的新闻，有链接，看谁有空翻译新闻。

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/ne ... s-on-a-house-prices

RBA's Stevens warns on $A, house prices

RBA governor Glenn Stevens has cautioned investors against assuming housing prices will always rise, and that the Australian dollar might not fall.

In a speech to a conference of economists in Hobart on Thursday, the RBA governor downplayed the significance of the central bank's recent changed description of the Australian dollar.

It had described the exchange rate as "uncomfortably high" but dropped the description as the currency fell earlier in 2014.

There has since been speculation that, with the currency since recovering, the phrase might be resurrected by the RBA.

"It hasn't been, though I don't regard that to be as significant as many people seem to think it is," Mr Stevens said.

He repeated the view that the exchange rate remains high by historical standards and said that some trade-exposed sectors still find it "quite uncomfortable".

"When judged against current and likely future trends in the terms of trade, and Australia's still high costs of production relative to those elsewhere in the world, most measurements would say it is overvalued, and not by just a few cents."

He acknowledged that it was an unusual time, with interest rates near zero in major economies, a factor supporting the Australian dollar in recent years.

"Nonetheless, we think that investors are under-estimating the likelihood of a significant fall in the Australian dollar at some point."

On housing prices, he said that some recovery after falls from 2010 to 2012 was no particular cause for concern.

But it would be a different matter if there were to be a further run-up in prices combined with "over-confident expectations of continuing gains" and significant increases in household debt.

Growth in the amount of debt owed by households is currently running at six to seven per cent per annum, only slightly above the growth rate of national income, he said.

"It's hard to mount the soap box to complain about that pace."

Still he warned investors to "take care" in the Sydney market, where most of the big rises in borrowing had been seen.

He warned banks to maintain strong lending standards.

And he warned that in making their financing and investment decisions, people should not assume that prices always rise.

"They don't; sometimes they fall," he said.

tobeyhw

Still believe the primary trend is up, till China tightens up and goes through a hard landing and commodities take a nosedive (only my .02 though).