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http://business.smh.com.au/rba-k ... /20080401-22ua.html
RBA keeps rates steady
The Reserve Bank has left interest rates at a 12-year high of 7.25 per cent, but the door remains open for further rate rises depending on inflation figures due out later this month.
The decision was widely expected by analysts who said the RBA needed more time to see the effects of its three rates rises since November. Consumer price data for the March quarter, due out on April 23, will also influence whether rates rise again next month.
For borrowers, already hit by commercial banks raising rates even more than official increases, that means more weeks of worry as they await further bad news about their debt costs.
This year alone, the February and March rate rises by the RBA added about $110 in monthly repayments for a standard $300,000, 25-year mortgage.
While noting the economy remains strong, with employment continuing to grow, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statment that the series of rate increases is providing ''tentative evidence that growth in domestic demand is moderating. Business and consumer sentiment have softened in the early part of 2008, and credit demand has slowed somewhat,'' the statement said.
Still, inflation remains a major concern for the bank, particularly in coming months.
''In the short term, inflation is likely to remain relatively high, and both the CPI and underlying measures will probably rise further in year-ended terms in the March quarter,'' Mr Stevens said in the statement. ''However, inflation should decline over time, provided demand slows as expected.''
Investors took the comments to signal a slight reduction in the chance of another near-term rate rise. The Australian dollar shed about a quarter of a US cent to 91.18 US cents shortly after the announcement, down from about 91.45 US cents just before 2.30pm. By 5pm, the dollar has slid further, to 90.95 US cents.
Stocks were little changed on the rates result. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index was ended up 5.5 points, or 0.1 per cent, for the day at 5,361.2.
''It certainly looks more balanced than previous statements,'' Stephen Halmarick, co-head of market economics at Citi told Reuters.
''We had been expecting a hike in May, but it now looks more likely that they'll be on hold, so that's a change of view for us,'' he said.
''The moderation in demand that they've been looking for is underway, and I think they're looking more concerned about what's happening in global markets.''
Scott Haslem, chief economist at UBS Investment, said the central bank's use of similar wording as in previous statements indicates it remains confident it can contain inflation.
"For the time being, the RBA is on hold," he said. "They have adopted a more neutral stance and they will have to see if demand slows."
For JPMorgan chief economist Stephen Walters, there is not enough proof in the wider economy that those earlier rate rises are doing enough to make further RBA rate rises unnecessary.
''There are early signs things have slowed down with retail sales flat in January after strong growth,'' Mr Walters said before the announcement. ''The cuts are having an effect but it's too early to say the tightening is over.''
If there's a pinch, it's mostly being felt by smaller retailers so far.
Sales by such companies increased 4.9 per cent in January, from a year earlier, according to figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, less than half the 10.4 per cent increase of large retailers. The market hasn't seen such a gap in almost three years, at the time of a slump in retailing.
The latest TD Securities-Melbourne Institute's monthly inflation gauge showed prices rising at an annual pace of 4% last month, propelled by more costly petrol and food.
That figure is well outside the 2-3 per cent range the RBA targets for inflation over the medium term.
Any inflation reading higher than 4 per cent for the March quarter - the next key economic indicator to be released - would be the worst inflation result in almost seven years, when the effects of the Federal Government's introduction of the GST were still rippling through the economy.
Mr Walters of JPMorgan takes a dim view of the prospect that inflation might be easing.
He predicts the consumer price inflation figure due out on April 23 will come in on the high side, prompting the RBA to raise rates to 7.5 per cent at its next meeting on May 6 meeting.
Relief in the form of lower rates won't arrive until the middle of 2009, Mr Walters forecast, meaning borrowers have a year or so to endure the rate squeeze.
For the record, the market is pricing in some of that relief. In a year's time, official rates will be almost 0.5 percentage points lower, or about 6.75 per cent, according to Credit Suisse.
How much of that relief gets passed on, though, will depend in large part on the commercial banks and other lenders.
Even without a rise in official rates, St George yesterday became the latest bank to lift its standard variable rate, upping it 10 basis points to 9.47 per cent.
The major banks have blamed an increased cost of funds caused by the global credit crunch for forcing them to raise rates about one full percentage point since November, versus three-quarters of one percent by the RBA itself.
Mr Stevens noted financial conditions are become tougher, with overseas turmoil the main source of the shift.
''Sentiment in global financial markets remains quite fragile and Australian financial intermediaries are experiencing increases in funding costs, which are being passed on to borrowers,'' Stevens said in the statement. ''Some tightening in credit standards for more risky borrowers is occurring.''
Amid the credit crunch, though, the market position of the biggest banks is strengthening since smaller non-bank lenders find it even more costly to raise funds to finance their loans.
T. S. Lim, a banking analyst at Southern Cross Securities, said the effect is already evident as mortgage brokers channel their business to traditional banks.
"If they send their business to non-banks there is a chance the loans will go unwritten," he said.
And there's a double benefit for the biggest banks as depositors shift their money to institutions seen as more solid, Mr Lim said.
Meanwhile, consumers trying to borrow can expect more demands from banks to add to their heftier repayment burden.
"It's tougher for bank customers because loan-to-valuation ratios are coming down and more security is needed [to get a loan]," Mr Lim said. "If you don't have a relationship with a bank, it will be hard," he said |
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