炙热的黑金板块WHC NHC YAL TER 交流分享区

AFL123

olivern81 发表于 2023-9-19 17:17
nhc今天公布年报和股息了，各位看涨吗？

看上去市场反应是肯定的，NHC最近一段时间显然比WHC表观好很多。
我个人最近又加了不少WHC，其它的煤炭股都抛了。感觉相对来说，WHC便宜了许多，可能主要是因为要收购BHP的煤矿有关。

Asic

黑金板块, 股价还是够坚挺！

AFL123

Asic 发表于 2023-9-21 13:10
黑金板块, 股价还是够坚挺！

上个月WHC被修理了一番，几天掉下去20%，还好分红弥补了一些

Jonnny

AFL123 发表于 2023-9-21 18:27
上个月WHC被修理了一番，几天掉下去20%，还好分红弥补了一些

英雄所见略同。whc不愧为煤炭股中的龙头，股场中的战斗机。敢涨敢跌，涨得叫你瞠目结舌，跌得叫你怀疑人生。

上月趁着掉到谷底时买了个满仓，现在正慢慢出货。不知道这一波能不能冲破8？

AFL123

Jonnny 发表于 2023-9-25 21:22
英雄所见略同。whc不愧为煤炭股中的龙头，股场中的战斗机。敢涨敢跌，超出你的想象。

上月趁着掉到谷底 ...

今天是收购最后出价的截止日期，希望WHC不要出过高的价格。我希望最多出40亿。

Jonnny

AFL123 发表于 2023-9-25 21:41
今天是收购最后出价的截止日期，希望WHC不要出过高的价格。我希望最多出40亿。

...

"In a note on Friday, UBS analysts Lachlan Shaw, Myles Allsop and Levi Spry said the Blackwater mine was worth $US2.5 billion ($3.9 billion), while Daunia was valued at $US800 million. "

---------------------------------------------
Obviously, WHC is interested in both mines.  A$4b shall not be enough. My estimate would be around A$5b, plus another rehab liabilities cost roughly A$2b. That would be huge burden to WHC. WHC has only A$3b cash on hand. Thus, refinancing is necessary.

It would be interesting to see the market reaction for the outcome of the bid.

If successful, good news or bad?    ---------- Good since it has new coking coal mines on hand for future growth. Share price might be push to new high $11 in the future. Bad news is that it has uncertain future with huge funding/debt required.

If fails, good news or bad?    ---------- Good since it has huge cash on hand, someone expects kind of special dividend to share holder $1 per share? and continue with buyback program. Bad since it loses future growth point, such as coking coal while thermal coal is deemed to be no future.

AFL123

Jonnny 发表于 2023-9-26 11:31
"In a note on Friday, UBS analysts Lachlan Shaw, Myles Allsop and Levi Spry said the Blackwater mi ...

不便宜就不买，这次是买方占主动地位。

AFL123

Jonnny 发表于 2023-9-26 11:31
"In a note on Friday, UBS analysts Lachlan Shaw, Myles Allsop and Levi Spry said the Blackwater mi ...

现在WHC应该没有那么多CASH了，大概23亿吧。
如果两个矿都买下，一年的利润加上现在的CASH能还清债务就是好的结果。

Jonnny

AFL123 发表于 2023-9-26 12:27
现在WHC应该没有那么多CASH了，大概23亿吧。
如果两个矿都买下，一年的利润加上现在的CASH能还清债务就是 ...

即使按你的数字计算，两个矿都买下还有至少20个亿缺口。如果这两个矿一年能赚20个亿，买下后whc股价真要冲$20了。

另外这两个矿都在昆州。昆州去年开征的臭名昭著的高额煤炭税，是按煤价阶梯而不是利润来收的。至少一半利润又要交公。所以，一年收本是不现实的。

AFL123

Jonnny 发表于 2023-9-26 17:08
即使按你的数字计算，两个矿都买下还有至少20个亿缺口。如果这两个矿一年能赚20个亿，买下后whc股价真要 ...

不是这两个矿一年收本，而是说现有的收入加上这两个矿的收入一年20多个亿没有什么问题，当然前提条件煤炭价格平均维持在目前水平,

Jonnny

不知道什么消息，今天又大涨了。

Jonnny

今天出消息大涨，手上自8月来建仓的几万股全部抛光，平均卖价大概$7.8刀。不是最高，但已超过我的预期。加上分红，今年全家生活费到手。谢谢whc. 以后有缘再见。

AFL123

Whitehaven Coal (ASX: WHC) $7.57
WHC +11.49%: Announced the purchase of the Daunia & Blackwater met coal mines in QLD from BHP Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) with some important points to make on this large, and very strategic acquisition, which we think will prove a good one:

They didn’t overpay with a sticker price of $US3.2bn a touch below what some expected, importantly, this incorporates an upfront component of $2.1bn + deferred payments over 3 years. On spot prices, they paid 1.8x EV / FY2024F EBITDA i.e. very cheap, noting this could increase if met coal prices remain strong with some potential sweeteners for BMA.
They can pay this from cash and a $900m bridging loan, which will either be converted into longer-term debt funding or they may sell down a minority stake to customers.
These are met coal mines used in steel making, not thermal coal used in power generation as the bulk of WHC production is currently. This transforms WHC into a primarily met coal company, generating ~70% of sales from a product that has a long future.
Also worth noting, is that the shift towards met coal will deliver financial market benefits i.e. a greater degree of funding optionality and an increase in the number of funds that could own WHC (thermal coal is the one being snubbed from an ESG perspective), a company with 70% in met coal should be enough to overcome some mandate restrictions.
Steel is required for urbanisation, but importantly, steel is also required to build infrastructure for the energy transition, with very little new supply on the horizon (unlike Iron Ore which will have a greater supply response).
There were lots of market-friendly terms being used in today’s announcement, compelling and transformational, and materially earnings accretive, all things that we like to see. A solid update from WHC, buying a good asset at a sensible price.

AFL123

怀特黑文煤炭 (ASX: WHC) $7.57
WHC +11.49%：宣布从必和必拓三菱联盟 (BMA) 手中收购昆士兰州的 Daunia & Blackwater 煤矿，在这一大型且极具战略意义的收购中，我们提出了一些重要观点，我们认为这将是一笔不错的收购：

他们并没有多付 32 亿美元的标价，略低于一些人的预期，重要的是，这包括 21 亿美元的预付款 + 3 年延期付款。按现货价格计算，他们支付了 1.8 倍 EV / 2024 财年 EBITDA，即非常便宜，并指出，如果冶金煤炭价格保持强劲，且 BMA 具有一些潜在的甜味剂，则这一价格可能会增加。
他们可以用现金和 9 亿美元的过渡性贷款来支付这笔费用，这些贷款要么转化为长期债务融资，要么向客户出售少数股权。
这些是用于炼钢的冶金煤矿，而不是目前 WHC 生产中用于发电的动力煤。这使得 WHC 转变为一家以冶金为主的煤炭公司，约 70% 的销售额来自具有长远发展前景的产品。
另外值得注意的是，向冶金煤的转变将给金融市场带来好处，即更大程度的融资选择权以及可以拥有 WHC 的基金数量的增加（从 ESG 角度来看，动力煤是被冷落的一种），拥有 70% 冶金煤的公司应该足以克服一些强制限制。
城市化需要钢铁，但重要的是，能源转型也需要钢铁建设基础设施，而近期新增供应量很少（与铁矿石不同，铁矿石的供应反应更大）。
今天的公告中使用了许多有利于市场的术语，这些术语引人注目、具有变革性，并且能够实质性地增加收益，所有这些都是我们希望看到的。 WHC 的可靠更新，以合理的价格购买优质资产。

Jonnny

AFL123 发表于 2023-10-18 22:40
怀特黑文煤炭 (ASX: WHC) $7.57
WHC +11.49%：宣布从必和必拓三菱联盟 (BMA) 手中收购昆士兰州的 Daunia &  ...

收购对公司长远发展来说毫无疑问是利好，短期来说，近三年内对公司是个沉重负担。

总共花了41亿美金，60多亿澳元，虽然有些是推迟付。公司现手上只有20多亿现金。对比产量差不多的CRN但市值只有30亿澳元，感觉收购花的钱有点多。

昨天刚刚收购靴子落定，当晚炼钢煤期货大跌，很有意思。