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Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe says monetary policy has become less effective but he still expects house prices to rise further as people use interest rate cuts to "run to the bank" and reduce debt instead of running to the shops to spend.
In responding to questions after a speech at the Armidale Business Chamber in regional NSW, Dr Lowe dismissed talk of a global bond bubble, and said he didn't feel any pressure from financial markets or politicians on cutting rates.
Before his speech, financial markets were pricing in an 76 per cent chance of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut to 0.75 per cent on October 1.
All of the big four banks are expecting the rate cut. Following the speech the chance of a rate cut slipped back to 70 per cent.
Dr Lowe said "monetary policy has become less effective at the margin" and that people were changing the way they used interest rate cuts.
"Once upon a time, when we lowered interest rates, people would run off to the bank to borrow to kind of go on a holiday or buy furniture or kind of do some spending, they don't do that anymore."
"When we lower interest rates, they are more likely go to the bank and say, 'Look, I want to pay off my mortgage,' " Dr Lowe said.
In his speech, Dr Lowe raised concerns that spending had stagnated, noting there had been "no growth at all in consumption per person, which is an unusual outcome at a time when employment is growing strongly".
However he said he did still expect house prices to grow and that such growth was not a concern for monetary policy.
"It seems to me quite possible that we could have a period now of rising housing prices, because construction activity is slowing while the population is still rising quite quickly the world. So there are some underlying drivers of housing prices," Dr Lowe said.
"From a monetary policy perspective, it's not an issue at the moment, it would become an issue of credit growth accelerated rapidly, but I see no signs of that at the moment."
Dr Lowe said he did not feel pressured to lower interest rates by the financial markets or any other area - an allusion to politicians.
"We feel no pressure from financial markets or from any other quarter. We do what we think is right," he said.
"At our board meeting next week, we will again take stock of the evidence. It is nevertheless likely that an extended period of low interest rates will be required in Australia to make progress in reducing unemployment and achieving more assured progress towards the inflation target."
With a quarter of the world's government bonds in negative yield territory, Dr Lowe was asked whether or not the bond market had started to become a bubble.
"I don't like the word bubble. The reason the interest rates are so low, is lots and lots of people around the world want to save."
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复活节农庄度假 (2011-4-28) jiwu2573 
楼主:victorvic
发表于 2019-9-26 07:11
