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楼主:Hetbert

[信息讨论] 又双叒叕一根千点大阳线,大饼破18000刀了,FOMO开始了 [复制链接]

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发表于 2019-6-5 13:19 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 Hetbert 于 2019-6-5 13:38 编辑
dilbert 发表于 2019-6-5 12:54
会涨吗?


我感觉会。

剧本是多么熟悉:现在是单边空头爆多头,拉锯的时候常常是多空双爆,然后暴力拉升多头爆空头。

投机者需要作波段挣钱。有信仰的要低价吸筹。除了被割的韭菜,大涨大跌对所有圈内人都好。

明年就第三次比特币产量减半了,每次产量减半前一年币价都会开始暴涨一波,减半暴跌之后,再涨一波。我感觉空头是有压力的,不会一直作空,早晚都要反手做多。

现在四万度电可以挖出一个比特币,明年五月减半以后,考虑到难度增加,就相当于10万度电一个比特币,电力成本占比特币挖矿成本的不到一半。

2012年比特币产量第一次减半后两个月开始,大饼$12涨到$142

2016年比特币产量第二次减半后一个月开始,大饼从$582涨到$20,000。

2020年比特币产量第三次减半,卖出的最佳时机就是下一浪的高峰。


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发表于 2019-6-5 15:26 |显示全部楼层
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Hetbert 发表于 2019-6-5 11:19
我感觉会。

剧本是多么熟悉:现在是单边空头爆多头,拉锯的时候常常是多空双爆,然后暴力拉升多头爆空头 ...

涨到$20,000。 有ICO 因素在里面, 现在没ICO 了, 应该没那么猛了
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发表于 2019-6-17 18:48 |显示全部楼层
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大饼突破13000刀了!
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发表于 2019-6-17 19:10 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 Hetbert 于 2019-6-17 19:14 编辑

稍微有些FOMO的感觉了,但这明显是在诱多。

最可靠的先行指标,bitcoin的搜索数量根本没有爆发式增长。

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发表于 2019-6-21 13:10 |显示全部楼层
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发表于 2019-6-21 15:02 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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waduhek 发表于 2019-6-21 13:43
没记错当年峰值的时候,一个比特币换26000澳币。   终于涨回一半啦?

是啊。从高点到脚踝斩,现在回到腰斩了。
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发表于 2019-6-21 15:07 |显示全部楼层
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恩,一切都在静悄悄地进行
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发表于 2019-6-22 18:32 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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又爆了一根千点大阳线,大饼逼近16000刀。

发表于 2019-6-22 19:27 |显示全部楼层
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我看到的是 快买. 快买. 要开了

发表于 2019-6-23 19:44 |显示全部楼层
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没突破2w美元之前都不会FOMO
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发表于 2019-6-23 22:14 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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jamking 发表于 2019-6-23 19:44
没突破2w美元之前都不会FOMO

川皇对伊朗硬起来,不要软趴趴的网络战,放爆竹热战打起来,大饼突破两万美金就有希望了。
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发表于 2019-6-23 22:39 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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明显炒的还有人跟?

发表于 2019-6-23 22:53 |显示全部楼层
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luliang2000 发表于 2019-6-23 22:39
明显炒的还有人跟?

所谓成功细中取,富贵险中求,舍不得孩子套不着狼,舍不得老婆套不着流氓

发表于 2019-6-23 23:23 |显示全部楼层
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够刺激的
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发表于 2019-6-26 12:35 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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jamking 发表于 2019-6-23 19:44
没突破2w美元之前都不会FOMO

感觉FOMO开始了,bitcoin搜索量激增了,一根又一根的千点大阳线,估计有新韭菜跑步入场了。

发表于 2019-6-26 12:40 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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持续观察三个月,我还是没胆入手,眼睁睁的......
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发表于 2019-6-26 16:35 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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天呐。。。

刚破17000关口,又破18000.

FOMO来得如此凶猛。。。

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发表于 2019-6-26 17:08 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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比特币突破10000欧元的心理关口以后,欧洲也开始FOMO了。

发表于 2019-6-26 17:52 |显示全部楼层
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Hetbert 发表于 2019-6-26 12:35
感觉FOMO开始了,bitcoin搜索量激增了,一根又一根的千点大阳线,估计有新韭菜跑步入场了。 ...

这个点位套牢盘也很多 看到啥点位调整

发表于 2019-6-26 18:06 |显示全部楼层
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不错,又有不少人发大财了,提前埋伏的那个才叫真本事。
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发表于 2019-6-26 23:14 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 Hetbert 于 2019-6-26 23:23 编辑

一根2000点大阳线,FOMO太疯狂了。

六个月前大饼跌到4000多澳元,连矿机电费都不够。。。

倒闭了那么多矿场,比特币的全网算力还是在增加,我就确定大饼不会归零,但怎么也没想到这么快就又疯狂了。

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发表于 2019-6-26 23:20 |显示全部楼层
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恭喜楼主赚钱,又可以吹一波大饼了

发表于 2019-6-27 00:22 来自手机 |显示全部楼层
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Hetbert 发表于 2019-6-26 23:14
一根2000点大阳线,FOMO太疯狂了。

六个月前大饼跌到4000多澳元,连矿机电费都不够。。。

还归零
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发表于 2019-6-27 17:30 |显示全部楼层
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《环球时报》评Facebook发币:数字货币时代 中国不能缺席

鉴于数字货币将成为必然趋势,数字经济和全球技术,金融,资本和经济结构也会发生深度变化,中国必须要参与这一轮数字经济竞争中。

上周,Facebook发布了一份关于加密货币项目Libra的官方白皮书,预计将于2020年发布这个基于区块链的稳定币。

据相关媒体报道,Facebook已经与包括维萨卡(Visa)、万事达卡(MasterCard)、Uber和PayPal在内的28家合作伙伴建立了联盟,这些合作伙伴将运行互联网节点来验证交易。此外,Facebook还计划在Libra正式发布的时候将联盟成员数量扩大到100家。

Facebook推出全球加密货币的计划引发了人们对区块链技术和加密货币的热烈讨论。一些评论家认为,自从比特币于2009年推出以来,Facebook发币可能是迄今加密货币行业内最重要的一件事。如果Libra可以顺利发布,那么数字货币有望成为金融技术的主战场,也会成为数字经济竞争的焦点。

如果中国公司缺席这样一个具有里程碑意义的事件,可能会令人感到不安。过去,美国建立了美元霸权以控制全球金融和货币流通。

如果同样的故事在数字货币时代重演,会发生什么呢?如果中国不能参与数字经济革命这一全新的发展阶段,那么很可能会在货币竞争中处于被动地位,更不用说可能会在互联网和金融技术领域失去优势了。

事实上,很多传统金融机构和科技公司最近都在尝试推出自己的数字资产或区块链服务。今年二月,摩根大通就宣布推出首个由美国银行背书的加密货币JPM Coin,然而这些项目可能都无法与Libra相提并论。

Libra与比特币、以及现有的其他加密货币不同,它被视为区块链技术和数字资产的升级,其价值受到法定货币和证券的支持,使其更加可靠和稳定。由于Facebook庞大的资产储备,Libra不仅有可能影响数字经济,还会影响国际金融体系。

Facebook在宣布推出Lirba白皮书之后,已经透露它将拥有“铸币行为”的权利,可以为全球27亿人创造新货币,使其成为数字经济在的“独立中央银行”。

当然,Libra也会面临挑战和障碍,尤其是国际监管机构和政策制定者会在其成为全球货币的过程中进行审查。Facebook很可能已经与美国监管机构达成了协议,以防范监管压力。

一旦这个联盟形成,Libra将成为全球数字经济中美元的“事实代表”,而在过去,美元其实已经在数字经济中失去了主导地位。有了Libra,美国可以在数字经济竞争中获得重要的先发优势,其他国家的政府很难阻止Libra在其数字经济中的渗透。

鉴于数字货币将成为必然趋势,数字经济和全球技术,金融,资本和经济结构也会发生深度变化,中国必须要参与这一轮数字经济竞争中。


经过几十年的努力,中国互联网公司在移动支付和电子商务领域取得了成就,国内数字经济规模已经超过30万亿元(4.36万亿美元)。从这个意义上讲,中国有能力参与下一阶段的数字经济竞争。

但是,由于数字货币很容易被用于非法金融、以及恐怖主义和犯罪活动,因此确实需要严格的监管控制。在中国的金融科技行业,出于金融稳定的目的也需要实施较为严格的监管。监管机构的谨慎态度,是这次中国金融科技行业对Libra反应迟缓的一个原因,而美国科技巨头在推进数字货币方面已经取得了快速进展。然而,随着全球数字经济竞争时代的临近,国内产业和监管机构必须对数字货币进行更多的对话和理解,甚至是鼓励。否则,中国可能会在新的金融格局里落后。

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1155562.shtml

Last week, Facebook released an official white paper for its cryptocurrency project Libra, a blockchain-powered stablecoin expected to arrive in 2020.

According to media reports, the social networking giant has already linked with 28 partners including Visa, Mastercard, Uber, and Paypal, to form Libra Association, which will run internet nodes to validate transactions. The company hopes to have 100 members by Libra's launch date.

Facebook's plan for a new global currency has triggered heated discussion surrounding blockchain technology and cryptocurrency. Some critics asserted that Facebook's digital currency could be the most significant event in the cryptocurrency field since Bitcoin's launch in 2009. When Libra is released, digital currency is expected to become the main battlefield for financial technology and the focus of digital economic competition.

What remains troublesome is how Chinese companies will be absent from such a landmark event. In the past, the US established dollar hegemony to have global finance and currency circulation under its control.

What would happen if the same story repeated itself in the digital currency era? If China cannot participate in this new phase of the digital economic revolution, then it may find itself in a passive position within currency competition, not to mention it could lose its advantages within the internet and financial technology sectors.

It is true that traditional financial institutions and technology companies have tried to launch their own digital assets or blockchain-powered services these days. In February, JP Morgan announced the first US bank-backed cryptocurrency JPM Coin. However, none of them are expected to be comparable to Libra.

Regarded as an upgrade of blockchain technology and digital assets, Libra is different from existing cryptocurrencies. Unlike Bitcoin or others, Libra's value will be backed by currencies and securities to make it more reliable and stable. And because of its hard asset reserves, it would not only impact the digital economy but influence international financial systems.

With the announcement of Libra, Facebook has revealed it has the seigniorage power to create a new currency for 2.7 billion people worldwide, making it an independent central bank within the digital economy.

Needless to say, Libra will face challenges and obstacles, in particular scrutiny from international regulators and policymakers, on its way to becoming a global currency. There is a high probability that Facebook will try to reach a deal with US regulators in an effort to safeguard against regulatory pressure.

Once this alliance is formed, Libra will become the de facto representative of the dollar in the global digital economy, where the dollar lacked dominance in the past. With Libra, the US could obtain a significant first-move advantage in digital economic competition, and it will be hard for governments to block Libra's penetration within their digital economies.

China must be involved in this round of digital economic competition, given the fact that digital currency will become an inevitable trend, bringing profound changes to the digital economy and global technology, finance, capital and economic structure.

After decades of effort, Chinese internet companies have made achievements in mobile payment and e-commerce sectors, bringing the country's digital economy to more than 30 trillion yuan ($4.36 trillion). In this sense, China is capable of participating in the next stage of digital economic competition.

However, as digital currencies can easily be used for illegal financial activities and by terrorists and criminals, stringent regulatory control is indeed necessary. In China's fintech sector, tough regulations are also needed for the purposes of financial stability. The regulator's cautious approach could explain why the Chinese fintech industry appears slow to respond while US tech giants achieve fast progress in advancing digital currencies. Yet, as the era of global digital economic competition approaches, it is essential for both domestic industries and regulators to have more dialogue and understanding, even encouragement, on digital currency. Otherwise, China could risk falling behind in the new financial landscape.

The author is a reporter with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn
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发表于 2019-6-27 17:35 |显示全部楼层
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Hetbert 发表于 2019-6-27 17:30
《环球时报》评Facebook发币:数字货币时代 中国不能缺席

鉴于数字货币将成为必然趋势,数字经济和全球技 ...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/pan ... d-xrp/#14714cc2633e

Apparently, the way China can participate in this economic revolution is to “let 1000 Libra’s rise,” allow Chinese Internet giants develop their own versions of Facebook’s Libra.

That could help bring buzz for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, ETH, adding fuel to the on-going rally.

Back in 2017, the buzz for Bitcoin and other major digital currencies was crushed by the heavy-handed intervention of the Chinese government, which cooled off investor enthusiasm.

That’s why Clement Thibault, Senior Analyst at global financial markets platform Investing.com,  is skeptical of the prospect of China warming up to major digital currencies. "I fail to see a future where the Chinese Government warms up to Bitcoin, at least in the current state of affairs,” says  Thibault. “Bitcoin's nature as a permissionless, decentralized currency is in conflict with much of what the Chinese Government aims for.“

A monopoly to create money and control the financial system and the economy, that is.

Actually, the reason China was the first big government to take action against cryptocurrencies back in 2017 isn’t an accident. Beijing government, more than any other government, wants to have firm control of its financial system, and allocate credit according to a political agenda.

That’s why Beijing won’t allow Bitcoin to compete with the country’s national currency. “China may at some point create its own cryptocurrency with their own rules, but I don't see that impacting Bitcoin at all, since the two would exist separately and wouldn't be in competition whatsoever."

Alex Karasulu, CEO / Founder OptDyn Inc., doesn’t share Thibault’s skepticism. “Short term, China could be hedging against trade wars using Bitcoin,” he says. “However, long term, China realizes it needs its own Libra perhaps associated with its own Petro Yuan. The Libra is essentially a blockchain wrapper around a pool of may sovereign currencies without acting as a safe haven like Bitcoin in case of a global economic catastrophe."

Meanwhile, the discussion of creating Chinese versions of Libra could provide the next catalyst to keep the rally for Bitcoin, and ETH going.
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发表于 2019-7-4 09:58 |显示全部楼层
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据BBC报道,剑桥大学发布了一个比特币网络用电的实时测算工具,每30秒更新一次。

比特币全网算力创新高以后,耗电量超过了瑞士,占全世界用电总量的0.24%。

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48853230

https://www.cbeci.org/





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发表于 2019-7-4 10:05 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 Hetbert 于 2019-7-4 10:09 编辑

剑桥大学商学院的比特币FAQ

https://www.cbeci.org/faq/

Clearing Up Common Misconceptions

Bitcoin needs to be inefficient

An often misunderstood criticism of Bitcoin relates to the inefficiencies inherent in the system. However, in order to preserve its decentralised nature, and as a result its censorship resistance, Bitcoin precisely needs to be inefficient in order prevent a single entity or colluding group of actors to easily gain control and dominate the network.

These inefficiencies are manifested in a variety of ways: every fully-validating node needs to first download every single transaction and block, then verify every single transaction and block, and then store every single transaction and block forever. This massive duplication and redundancy is necessary to allow anyone to independently verify the state of the network and ledger without having to trust anyone else.

Similarly, Bitcoin’s network security depends on PoW mining being expensive: if mining a block is sufficiently difficult — and thus costly in financial terms, malicious actors will find it much harder to successfully perform an ongoing attack on the blockchain (e.g. perform double-spends, mine empty blocks, or reorganise the blockchain and reverse old transactions). Doing so would force attackers to spend significant resources in the form of specialised mining equipment and electricity ex-ante.

“Energy cost per transaction” metric can be misleading

The popular “energy cost per transaction” metric is regularly featured in the media and other academic studies despite having multiple issues.

First, transaction throughput (i.e. the number of transactions that the system can process) is independent of the network’s electricity consumption. Adding more mining equipment and thus increasing electricity consumption will have no impact on the number of processed transactions.

Second, a single Bitcoin transaction can contain hidden semantics that may not be immediately visible nor intelligible to observers. For instance, one transaction can include hundreds of payments to individual addresses, settle second-layer network payments (e.g. opening and closing channels in the Lightning network), or potentially represent billions of timestamped data points using open protocols such as OpenTimestamps.

Comparing apples to oranges

Many electricity consumption estimates include comparisons with traditional payment systems. These may initially seem appropriate given that Bitcoin is often touted as global payment network. However, a closer look at the value proposition of these systems reveals substantial differences: unlike traditional payment systems, Bitcoin is designed to function as an open censorship-resistant value transfer system that anyone can access without requiring permission. Achieving these properties requires engaging in different trade-offs which, as mentioned previously, necessarily results in massive operational costs and inefficiencies.

Furthermore, Bitcoin is more than a mere payment system: its native cryptocurrency bitcoin can be considered a synthetic commodity money that may be used as a long-term store of value (bitcoin is frequently called “digital gold”) and/or a means of exchange for purchasing goods and services (“digital cash”). Thanks to its security, the Bitcoin network can also be used as a public notary to verify the existence and integrity of timestamped data (e.g. documents).
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发表于 2019-7-10 11:21 |显示全部楼层
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本帖最后由 Hetbert 于 2019-7-10 11:30 编辑

大饼全网算力创历史新高了,峰值达到74.55 Exahash/s。

这个数字已经大到人类难以理解了。。。 每秒74548543万亿次哈希运算.

我用超级计算机作参照物尝试理解一下。

1次哈希运算约等于6350次整数运算,12700次浮点运算(Flops)。

世界排名第三的超算,中国1000万核的神威·太湖之光,峰值算力是93 Petaflops。(1 Exa=1000 Peta)

74550*12700/93=10,180,483.87

也就是说,比特币全网算力,等于一千多万台太湖之光的算力。比特币网络的用电量超过瑞士全国的用电量。

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