猜猜今年能到2% 吗？RBA puzzle: just how low should we go?

jialiren

猜猜今年的official rate 能到降到只有2% 吗？还需几次cut 才能到2%？

看看RBA的难题--- RBA puzzle: just how low should we go?Peter Martin
February 2, 2009
来源http://business.theage.com.au/bu ... -20090201-7ut2.html

WHEN the eight men and one woman who sit on the Reserve Bank board regroup after a two-month break tomorrow,
they'll be considering not only how much to cut their cash rate (a further 1 percentage point is likely) but also how far it should eventually fall.

It's a question they've rarely had to consider. But at 4.25 per cent, the bank's current cash rate is now equal to its lowest ever. Every step down from here sets a new floor.

And there's a belief within the bank that low floors are dangerous. When the US cut its rate to a low of 1 per cent earlier this decade to lift itself out of recession, it arguably sowed the seeds that helped create the subprime bubble whose bursting is now destroying economies worldwide.

Might 2 per cent be a good floor for Australia's cash rate? And, if so, should the bank move quickly or take time?

One argument that will be forcefully put is that if Australia needs a new floor, it may as well get it quickly, to create the maximum economic boost.

The counter-argument ("keeping the powder dry") is that if the board delivers only some of what it thinks is needed tomorrow, it will be in a better position to judge whether the rest is needed further down the track.

A cut of 1 percentage point would take the cash rate from 4.25 to 3.25 per cent, still above the likely eventual floor.

A cut of 1.5 points (for which there are precedents, in New Zealand last week, and in Australia in the lead-up to the last recession) would take our cash rate to 2.75 per cent, nearer the eventual floor.

Tuesday's decision, unlike nearly all the board's earlier decisions, will be genuinely made by the nine board members sitting around the table. In recent months, Governor Glenn Stevens has invited the meeting to think beyond approving his recommendation and in at least one case, he has presented it with an open recommendation.

The views of board members such as Treasury Secretary Ken Henry (who is busy helping draw up Kevin Rudd's economic stimulus plan) and the academic economist Warwick McKibbin (who believes things are so bad we need to halve the GST) will be fully aired.

Bank staff believe that although the Government's $8.7 billion "cash splash" boosted consumer spending at the end of December and the start of January, the effect is fading.

Whether we are in a recession or merely a period of very slow growth, all the information from overseas since the RBA board's November meeting points to things getting worse.

The International Monetary Fund believes that the world (reportedly including Australia) is headed for recession.

Some of the graphs sent out to Reserve Bank board members are apparently frightening. And since they were sent, the US has provided updated data showing its gross domestic product shrank 3.8 per cent in the December quarter.

Things are changing quickly, for the worse. This will be at the top of the board members' minds as they decide how low to take Australian rates, and how soon.

[ 本帖最后由 jialiren 于 2009-2-2 11:25 编辑 ]

winsion

没有最低，只有更低。哈哈