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知名机构预测澳矿业繁荣有助经济不陷于衰退
据2008年7月9日《悉尼晨锋报》报道，澳洲知名行业预测机构BIS Shrapnel刚刚发布的一项有关矿产业的最新分析报告表示，矿产业的蓬勃发展意味澳大利亚经济至少在今后五年不会陷于衰退。
报告说，矿产资源目前的价格高涨给采矿业带来了巨额的收益，致使业者有能力对生产能力注入更多的投资。一旦矿产价格回落平稳时，产量的增加将能够弥补价格的下降。
BIS Shrapnel公司预测，采矿业的发展将推动澳大利亚的经济增长率于今后五年维持在2.5％至4.5％。
http://business.smh.com.au/busin ... -20080708-3byt.html
Mining sector to buoy economy
July 9, 2008 Sydney Morning Herald
AMID predictions the resources boom can keep the economy out of recession, tentative cracks are starting to appear in the mining sector.
The forecaster BIS Shrapnel said yesterday that record investment in mining would keep economic growth between 2.5 and 4.5 per cent in the next five years - above the Reserve Bank projections that growth will sag to 2.25 per cent this December.
But other private sector reports suggest higher costs could take their toll on the mining sector, while deteriorating business conditions continue to restrict the economy's overall growth.
BIS Shrapnel said mining investment had surged more than fourfold since 2000-01, to about $41.5 billion a year, and would support annual export growth of 6 to 7 per cent until 2013.
Adrian Hart, senior manager of BIS Shrapnel's infrastructure and mining unit, said the increase would offset the slowing in consumer spending and the housing market.
"Right now, the mining sector is experiencing massive income inflows from strong commodity prices, and this is financing further investment in capacity, as well as providing a boost to Government coffers," he said. "Later on, soaring production will offset the impact of commodity price declines, keeping the mining sector's contribution to economic growth on a very sound footing."
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs JBWere warned soaring costs, disruptions to production and the strong local dollar may lead to a downbeat reporting season for some mining companies.
"While the market is generally aware of cost pressures throughout the industry, we are concerned that there is a tendency to underestimate the quantum of cost increases, and that earnings numbers in the coming reporting season will disappoint as a result," Goldman's Malcolm Southwood said.
Although the commodities sector was in a stronger position than others, diesel expenses typically made up 20 per cent of mining business costs, Mr Southwood said. Interruptions such as flooding in Queensland this year and the explosion at Apache's Varanus Island gas facility in Western Australia added more pressure.
A further risk facing the sector was a possible slowdown in Asian commodity demand. Especially vulnerable were producers of metals such as zinc and nickel.
A separate survey from the National Australia Bank showed a sharp decline in overall business conditions, with confidence at its lowest point since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
While mining business conditions were more positive than other sectors, NAB said, they had become "significantly weaker" recently, and had moved to their lowest point in two years. Another report from Dun and Bradstreet said profit growth in the March quarter was at its lowest level since 1991, and higher fuel costs had inflicted damage on almost 90 per cent of businesses. Almost two thirds said higher credit costs were hampering operations, while 43 per cent said they expected profits to drop in the next quarter, the Dun and Bradstreet survey found.
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