RBA保持利率不变，提起进一步宽松可能性

BIH

RBA 一如所料保持利率不变，但暗示有进一步宽松的可能性。我个人认为。RBA认为现在各方面条件允许有进一步的宽松政策，而且也有降息的必要。目前情况来看。RBA是否降息取决于美联储是否会改变加息路径。今天股票收跌，但明天有可能反弹。不过老实说我对RBA降息的有效性存疑，可以预见即使RBA降息，四大也不会100%跟隨。以下为statment全文：

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor:
Interest Rate Decision
Number 2016-01
Date 2 February 2016

At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent.

Recent information suggests the global economy is continuing to grow, though at a slightly lower pace than earlier expected. While several advanced economies have recorded improved growth over the past year, conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies. China's growth rate has continued to moderate.

Commodity prices have declined further, especially oil prices. This partly reflects slower growth in demand but also very substantial increases in supply over recent years. The decline in Australia's terms of trade, which began more than four years ago, has therefore continued.

Financial markets have once again exhibited heightened volatility recently, as participants grapple with uncertainty about the global economic outlook and diverging policy settings among the major jurisdictions. Appetite for risk has diminished somewhat and funding conditions for emerging market sovereigns and lesser-rated corporates have tightened. But funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain very low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.

In Australia, the available information suggests that the expansion in the non-mining parts of the economy strengthened during 2015 even as the contraction in spending in mining investment continued. Surveys of business conditions moved to above average levels, employment growth picked up and the unemployment rate declined in the second half of the year, even though measured GDP growth was below average. The pace of lending to businesses also picked up.

Inflation continues to be quite low, with the CPI rising by 1.7 per cent over 2015. This was partly caused by declining prices for oil and some utilities, but underlying measures of inflation are also low at about 2 per cent. With growth in labour costs continuing to be quite subdued as well, and inflation restrained elsewhere in the world, consumer price inflation is likely to remain low over the next year or two

Given these conditions, it is appropriate for monetary policy to be accommodative. Low interest rates are supporting demand, while regulatory measures are working to emphasise prudent lending standards and so to contain risks in the housing market. Credit growth to households continues at a moderate pace, albeit with a changed composition between investors and owner-occupiers. The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney over recent months and has remained mostly subdued in other cities. The exchange rate has continued its adjustment to the evolving economic outlook.

At today's meeting, the Board judged that there were reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy, with inflation close to target. The Board therefore decided that the current setting of monetary policy remained appropriate.

Over the period ahead, new information should allow the Board to judge whether the recent improvement in labour market conditions is continuing and whether the recent financial turbulence portends weaker global and domestic demand. Continued low inflation may provide scope for easier policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.
Enquiries

Media Office
Information Department
Reserve Bank of Australia
SYDNEY

Phone: +61 2 9551 9720
Fax: +61 2 9551 8033
E-mail: rbainfo@rba.gov.au

有個有趣的地方，RBA提到了中國，但隻字不提美國。似乎有意迴避美國政策會左右RBA決定的事實。不知道背後是否另有深意。

渔妇

膨胀率1.7%啊，今天早上看到一个是2点儿几的。

aimom

新闻说通胀率2.3

经济解释

RBA的声明
只是copy以前的
文字改动量估计不到10%
了无新意

BIH

经济解释 发表于 2016-2-2 15:59
RBA的声明
只是copy以前的
文字改动量估计不到10%

得，晚上加观点。现在没时间

superxeonman

总打口炮有个p用

直接连降8次息

就一切都妥了

jennifercd

Westpac说16年整年的利率就是这个了

bondzh

BIH 发表于 2016-2-2 15:33
得，晚上加观点。现在没时间

就是嘛，没观点，发个新闻啥意思

BIH

bondzh 发表于 2016-2-2 21:17
就是嘛，没观点，发个新闻啥意思

發意見了。雖然我的意見很一般。鴨神也說說吧

态度最重要

不加息的话，房价会继续暴涨

毕竟澳洲房价相比其他国家

只能算是廉价资产

布隆伯格

降息造成的泡沫危害远大于降息对经济的刺激作用。

西方国家的经济已经不是降息可以挽救的了。

就像癌症病人晚期给他打吗啡，只是镇痛，不是治疗。

世界资本主义现在就是患的癌症，这个癌症就是技术发展的同时，社会政策没有随即改变，贫富分化巨大，经济循环僵死，政府不敢平衡社会各方面的经济实力，光顾打吗啡，现在吗啡也快失效了。

到了动刀切除肿瘤的时候了。这把刀就是利率。哪怕血流成河，也要动刀切肿瘤的。

bondzh

BIH 发表于 2016-2-2 20:34
發意見了。雖然我的意見很一般。鴨神也說說吧

如果真的像我预期的那样，这波反弹走完继续熊市的话，今年我估计还得降息一次，或许是最后一次了

BIH

布隆伯格 发表于 2016-2-2 21:43
降息造成的泡沫危害远大于降息对经济的刺激作用。

西方国家的经济已经不是降息可以挽救的了。

利率是怎么切肿瘤？加息了，苦的也是老百姓。

BIH

bondzh 发表于 2016-2-2 21:45
如果真的像我预期的那样，这波反弹走完继续熊市的话，今年我估计还得降息一次，或许是最后一次了 ...

我觉得美国不降息，RBA没有降息的空间。所以我说要看美国的走向。

bondzh

BIH 发表于 2016-2-2 20:48
我觉得美国不降息，RBA没有降息的空间。所以我说要看美国的走向。

为什么澳洲降息要看美国有没有降息呢？日本和欧洲不是还继续放水么

布隆伯格

BIH 发表于 2016-2-2 21:46
利率是怎么切肿瘤？加息了，苦的也是老百姓。

老百姓向来就是被用作牛市抬轿，熊市买单的。。。

Maobama

布隆伯格 发表于 2016-2-2 21:43
降息造成的泡沫危害远大于降息对经济的刺激作用。

西方国家的经济已经不是降息可以挽救的了。

啥癌症，大姨妈而已，10年一个周期的大姨妈来了。

Chloewn123

澳洲是个低储蓄的国家， 四大银行放出去的钱很多都向国外银行的拆借。 过去在几年在澳币风光， 美元鼻青脸肿的时候， 大量借美元是相当划算的。 现在呢？ 情况正相反， 美元上天， 澳币下跌， 四大的过去的借美元外债在还款时负担加重了。 让四大怎么办？ 当然是加息转加在澳洲的贷款上身上。 即使RBA降息， 四大在房贷利率上根本不会跟进， 相反， 他们正蠢蠢欲动要加房贷利息。。。 虽然四大的利润已经不少， 但资本主义就是血淋淋的剥削和压榨， 大家等着看吧

布隆伯格

Chloewn123 发表于 2016-2-3 09:50
澳洲是个低储蓄的国家， 四大银行放出去的钱很多都向国外银行的拆借。 过去在几年在澳币风光， 美元鼻青脸 ...

欧债的悲剧多少要在澳洲重演。

瑞士法郎一夜升值，其他欧洲国家的炒房客统统爆仓。

本国银行擅自借外债转贷给本国人，其实就是卖国。

audi

通胀越来越高，不加息就不错了

rock9

今年不会变

wcsydney2000

关注

melbourneabc

Chloewn123 发表于 2016-2-3 09:50
澳洲是个低储蓄的国家， 四大银行放出去的钱很多都向国外银行的拆借。 过去在几年在澳币风光， 美元鼻青脸 ...

信息更新：美元又跌了。

melbourneabc

audi 发表于 2016-2-3 19:33
通胀越来越高，不加息就不错了

现在世界各国盼通胀盼到脖子疼了都盼不来，你澳洲很不容易有点通胀，谁会蠢到现在加息去压制通胀，想加息，等几年吧。

topliu

必须降息　

dcao

年内至少应该降息一次~~~

布隆伯格

Maobama 发表于 2016-2-3 08:10
啥癌症，大姨妈而已，10年一个周期的大姨妈来了。

你看的是10年期的短周期，我看的是二战结束至今70年的长周期。

ps：战争就在地平线上了。

不信，走着瞧。