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As worries grow over China's ability to prop up its currency, hedge fund manager Kyle Bass has claimed that the country's foreign reserves war chest is "already below critical level" and that there's a "ticking time bomb" in China's enormous banking system.
In a letter to clients dated February 10, Mr Bass, the founder of Hayman Capital Management, estimates China's liquid foreign reserves are $US2.2 trillion at most, compared to the $US3.32 trillion stated by the People's Bank of China in January.
"China's liquid reserve position is already below a critical level of minimum reserve adequacy," said Bass, whose fund is betting heavily that the currency will fall. "In other words, China is currently out of the required level of reserves needed to safely operate its financial system."
The hedge fund manager, who successfully bet against US mortgages in 2007, also warned a Chinese credit crisis would see the country's banks rack up losses 400 per cent larger than those run up by US banks during the subprime mortgage crisis.
"Similar to the US banking system in its approach to the global financial crisis (GFC), China's banking system has increasingly pursued excessive leverage, regulatory arbitrage and irresponsible risk taking," Bass wrote.
"Banking system losses - which could exceed 400 per cent of the US banking losses incurred during the subprime crisis - are starting to accelerate."
The composition of China's foreign exchange reserves remain a point of contention between those bullish on the Chinese economy and those bearish; Bass claims
China's reserves are tied up supporting institutions, banks and its sovereign wealth fund and aren't readily available to stem the hundreds of billions of dollars fleeing the country.
"The view that China has years of reserves to burn through is misinformed. China's back is completely up against the wall today, which is one of the primary reasons why the government is hypersensitive to any comments regarding its reserve levels or a hard landing," reads the letter.
In the last decade, the Chinese banking system has swollen from less than $US3 trillion to $US34 trillion, equivalent to around 340 per cent of Chinese GDP.
For perspective, the US banking system held around $US16.5 trillion of assets prior to the global financial crisis, which was equivalent to 100 per cent of GDP.
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发表于 2016-2-7 02:40
