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According to figures provided by Ozforex Group Ltd (ASX: OFX), the AUD has averaged US76.62 cents since 1990 so is now sitting well below its historical average.
That statistic might deter some investors from trying to profit from a weaker dollar based on the assumption that all of the gains have already been recognised. Personally, I don’t believe that to be the case and nor do Morgan Stanley or the global currency team from UBS Wealth Management.
According to the Fairfax press, UBS is forecasting a fall to US70 cents by the end of this year while Morgan Stanley believes the dollar will hit just US62 cents in 2016. To begin with, Australia is a commodity economy meaning that further weakness in China and commodity markets should be reflected in the currency as well. At the same time, the United States is edging closer to increasing its own interest rates which would act to strengthen its currency against our own. |
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