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危险的RMB过高估值
RMB的继续升值更可能导致经济衰退，而不会刺激消费
DianaChoyleva
25-02-2014 11：08 a.m. ET
中国货币对美元在过去一周的急速贬值触发了关于yuan走向的新猜测。很多经济学家还期待北京今年会继续让yuan升值。但是他们会吃惊地发现，中国最终会注意到，yuan的进一步升值只会严重破坏经济并触发金融危机。
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China's Dangerous Overvaluation
Further yuan appreciation is much more likely to sink the economy than boost consumption.
By Diana Choyleva
Feb. 25, 2014 11:08 a.m. ET
A rapid slide in the value of China's currency against the dollar over the past week is sparking new speculation about the future for the yuan. Many economists still expect that Beijing will extend its years-long currency appreciation. But they are likely to be in for a shock, because China will eventually notice that further strengthening can only damage its economy and precipitate a financial crisis.
The case for a stronger yuan is that financial market liberalization will foster capital inflows as domestic interest rates rise. This will keep upward pressure on the yuan, in turn encouraging more domestic consumption among 1.4 billion people who find the value of their cash holdings increasing as the currency strengthens.
In an earlier era, when the yuan was undervalued, currency appreciation might indeed have facilitated rebalancing toward consumption. But the yuan is now arguably overvalued relative to a trade-weighted basket of the currencies of China's trading partners, and overall debt in the economy has built up so fast that further currency appreciation could be devastating.
Both the U.S. Federal Reserve and Beijing have pumped enormous quantities of cash into their respective economies to stave off economic crises. Monetary easing in the West fueled a tidal wave of speculative capital into emerging markets, against which China's capital controls have been only a partially effective sea wall.
Meanwhile, Beijing's own monetary stimulus efforts dramatically boosted investment in the economy, and pushed up China's labor costs in yuan terms. Given this situation, and the debt build-up that has accompanied the investment boom, the yuan now is almost certainly overvalued based on labor costs and the country's trade patterns. Most models that say otherwise rely on relative consumer prices across economies as a key yardstick. That offers an incomplete view because it reflects trends in the price of non-tradable goods as well as tradable goods. The real question is whether yuan prices for tradable goods are in line or out of line with foreign-currency prices at a given exchange rate.
A better measure would consider the labor cost per unit of output. Seen this way, it seems more likely that the yuan is now roughly 10%-15% too strong. Put another way, the combination of rapidly rising yuan-denominated wages and currency appreciation means that in dollar terms, China's labor costs have risen far ahead of Chinese productivity.
China's industrial profits in 2012 and 2013 posted their worst performance since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Since 2010, China has gained export market share at a much slower pace. During the past couple of years, Chinese firms have cut export prices in yuan despite the pick-up of global trade. If the yuan were undervalued, companies wouldn't have needed to reduce prices further.
Overvaluation has dramatic implications. Any further appreciation is much more likely to sink an economy that has racked up extraordinary debt in recent years than it is to boost consumer spending on imports. Exporting industries, and those industries that serve them, will struggle to earn enough to repay debts that will become relatively more onerous the higher the yuan trends.
One solution would be for the domestic price level to adjust to the current exchange rate. But this would imply significant deflation, including job reductions and wage cuts that would heighten consumer anxiety and sap household spending, risking political consequences that Beijing might fear.
There is another way. The needed rebalancing of growth from investment to consumption will be much easier if the currency is allowed to depreciate as capital flows are liberalized fully. A lower yuan would support income from exports, while households' diversification into foreign assets and higher domestic interest rates would boost household wealth and income.
This would certainly be more effective at stimulating domestic consumption than a stronger yuan, given that Chinese consumers buy little from abroad and therefore experience less perceived bump to their purchasing power from a strong currency. On the other hand, Chinese consumers keep the majority of their financial assets in bank deposits and borrow comparatively little.
Yuan appreciation before the global financial crisis was a gauge of policy makers' true will to reform. Yuan depreciation will tell us if Beijing has indeed made a groundbreaking commitment to liberalize its financial system.
Ms. Choyleva is head of macroeconomic research at Lombard Street Research in London.
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识字课本 作者：毛尖 (2005-1-7) sail 
发表于 2014-2-26 21:04
