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As good as it gets for the Aussie dollar?
The Australian dollar is continuing its path higher as the greenback weakens, but the chances of the currency hitting parity are slim, analysts say.
The Australian dollar jumped to a new 4½-month high of 97.49 US cents after stronger-than-expected inflation data released this morning, well above its low of just under 89 US cents in late August.
The currency rose as high as 97.32 US cents overnight after the US dollar softened against a range of currencies.
The US dollar also fell to a two-year low against the euro as unemployment figures released overnight pointed to fewer jobs created in September. Non-farm payrolls increased by 148,000 workers last month, lower than economists' expectations.
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While the jobless rate fell from 7.3 to 7.2 per cent, the much-anticipated report, which had been delayed by the government shutdown, suggested the US economy was already weakening before the budget and debt impasse this month.
The subdued job numbers increased financial markets' expectations that the US Federal Reserve's plans to reduce its $US85 billion-a-month bond-buying program would be pushed back until early 2014, putting downward pressure on the US dollar.
"The flat-out poor [jobs] number makes the Fed likely to take even longer to reduce stimulus, so that's more US dollars being printed," Westpac senior currency strategist Sean Callow said.
Dollar 'unlikely to strengthen much further'
Even so, currency strategists said the Australian dollar was unlikely to strengthen a lot further, especially since it has risen sharply over the past 1½ months.
The local currency has gained about 10.6 per cent since late August, after falling 15 per cent from its parity levels in mid-April. It has risen more than 3 per cent against the US dollar this month. Only the South African rand has strengthened by more.
‘‘People will be talking about [parity] more and more, but ... when you've rallied so far in a short amount of time, you do need to be a bit wary of extrapolation,’’ Mr Callow said.
‘‘It's been a really strong month and I do think it's reasonable now to be considering 98 US cents to be within reach. But there is so much bad news priced into the US [dollar] at the moment that the market might start getting a bit lopsided.’’
Currency strategists expect the Australian dollar to trend lower once the Fed starts to wind back its unprecedented stimulus program.
The local dollar has benefited from the program, which has flooded global markets with cheap money and encouraged investment in higher-yielding or riskier assets such as the Australian currency.
Non-US factors also influencing local dollar
ANZ's head of global markets research, Richard Yetsenga, said he did not expected the dollar’s current 97 US cents level to be sustained as the local currency’s movements was also being influenced by other non-tapering factors.
"I don't expect levels around 97 US cents to be sustained," Mr Yetsenga said.
"Markets are not going to obsess about the Fed indefinitely. You do have tighter policy in China coming through slowly and I expect that to weigh on the currency at some point before the end of the year."
"Certainly if the market continues to focus entirely on the Fed and the Fed is the only game in town, the currency could go higher. But I don't view levels up to parity as sustainable given the macro backdrop both globally and domestically."
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/m ... .html#ixzz2iWMraszG
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