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UBS首席货币策略师Mansoor Mohi-uddin预测，随着国际经济因素在汇市发生作用，澳元将在今年年底回贬至90美仙。
Mansoor表示，虽然澳洲经济基础牢固，但澳元在2011年底注定被美元压制在平价之下。最近几周以来，澳元凭借着飘忽不定的震荡走势当仁不让地成
为全球汇市中波动性最强的货币之一。本月早些时候，因全球市场对欧元区在纠缠难解的主权债务问题下崩溃产生巨大恐慌，澳元跌破美元平价，下触94.44美
仙，虽然随着欧洲领导人推出救援计划后，澳元逐步回升，但其早前1.10美元的风光已经不再。
Mansoor认为，美元将开始反弹，也就是说，澳元将走低，尤其是如果澳洲储行在未来数月内下调利率，这一趋势就将更加明显。他说：“我认为，澳元在今年年底将不会居于平价之上，而是将回到90美仙的低位。”
Mansoor指出，看待澳元汇率应该放眼国际，而非局限于澳洲国内。“美联储将不会实施第三轮的量化宽松政策，因此美元将获得一些支撑力量。同时，欧
洲央行以及欧洲地区的一些其他央行也很可能放宽货币政策。我们认为，欧
洲央行将在年底前下修利率50基点，加上欧洲各央行的干预，这些都将帮助美
元重振旗鼓。”
Mansoor表示，澳元最近几周的下跌是由于亚洲及中东央行已经开始停止购买并转而出售该货币。“在过去数周里，由于亚洲货币承压，该地区央行对美元的热情重燃。虽然澳元上周重回平价，但这主要是由于全球金融市场的风险偏好增强，对澳洲私营部门的投资回升。”
International trouble ahead for Aussie dollar
UBS chief currency strategist Mansoor Mohi-uddin has forecast theAustralian dollar will end the year on a sour note as a storm of internationaleconomic factors pushes the domestic currency towards US90c.
The Singapore-based currency strategist said the fundamentals of the Australianeconomy and the currency would be overshadowed by the US dollar, which wasexpected to rise as the Federal Reserve held off on ordering a fresh round offiscal stimulus.
The Australian dollar has been one of the most volatile currencies on worldforeign exchange markets, with savage swings in recent weeks.
It fell through parity earlier this month as the world feared the eurozonewould collapse because of the ongoing sovereign debt crisis.
The currency hit a low of US94.44c, well off its post-parity high of$US1.10, before recovering after European leaders outlined a rescue plan.
The likelihood of a deal has helped the Australian dollar punch back throughparity and last night it was trading at $US1.0182.
However, Mr Mohi-uddin said the US dollar should start to recover, whichwould push down the Aussie, especially if the Reserve Bank cut interest ratesin the next few months.
"I think the Australian dollar is going to end up back towards US90c bythe end of the year, rather than through parity," he said during a tour ofUBS's Australian operations.
The theme would be international, rather than domestic, he said. "Inthe US,the Fed is not going to be doing quantitative easing three," so the USdollar should gain some ground.
"There are also the other central banks in Europe,and the ECB, that are likely to loosen monetary policy.
"We think the ECB is going to cut by 50 basis points by the end of theyear, plus there are central banks intervening . . . that will help the USdollar."
Mr Mohi-uddin said the Aussie's falls in recent weeks had been driven byAsian and Middle Eastern central banks, which had held off buying it, beginningto sell.
The central banks had bought Australian and Canadian dollars because of theinterest rate yields on both currencies, and to diversify away from the USdollar.
"In the past couple of weeks when the Asian currencies were comingunder pressure, we saw those central banks rebalance back into USdollars," Mr Mohi-uddin said. The Australian dollar's push above parity inthe past week had been helped mainly by private sector investments in theAussie once more because of the increased risk appetite in global financialmarkets.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/international-trouble-for-aussie-dollar/story-e6frg94o-1226166209426 |
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