投资者将重新考虑 铀的前景

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this link to reference the article - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2fc196 ... .html#ixzz1Gf1Qwh5l
Investors reconsider outlook for uranium
By Javier Blas, Commodities Editor

Published: March 15 2011 08:49 | Last updated: March 15 2011 08:49

The cost of uranium is a barometer of the popularity of the nuclear power industry. And as the esteem in atomic energy now plunges, so it is the price of the commodity.
铀的价格是核电行业受欢迎的晴雨表。该材料的价格随着对原子能源当下认可程度的骤降而下降。

In 2007-08, as oil prices soared towards an all-time high, the nuclear industry saw a renaissance that lifted the price of uranium to a record of $136 a pound.
在2007年至2008年间，随着石油价格涨到史上最高的时候，核能行业见证了一次复兴，铀价涨到创纪录的136美元一磅。

Uranium prices fell sharply afterwards on the back of fresh supplies and the drop in oil prices during the global financial crisis. But even so, prices were at historically high levels. The most commonly traded form of uranium rose last month to a 35-month high of $73 a pound, sharply higher than the $20 of the early 2000s.
在全球经济危机的期间，在新的供应 和油价回落的背景下，铀的价格跌得很厉害。但即便如此，价格还是处于历史上较高的水平。交易中最常见的铀的种类，在上个月升到35个月以来新高，73美元一磅，远高于2000年初的20美元。

But as the popularity of the nuclear industry comes into question following Japan’s atomic crisis, prices have moved sharply lower. In the thinly traded spot market, uranium plunged on Monday by 10 per cent to $61.49 a pound, according to MF Global, a broker. Some analysts see prices falling a further 20 per cent in the next few weeks and months, dragging down miners such as Cameco of Canada – whose shares fell 12.7 per cent in Toronto on Monday – and Areva of France – down 9.6 per cent in Paris. Shares in Uranium One, Canada’s second-largest producer, tumbled almost 28 per cent on Monday. Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, two of the world’s largest miners by market capitalisation, are also big uranium producers.
但是随着日本原子危机，原子能行业的欢迎程度受到质疑。据交易代理商MF Global称，在交易惨淡的即期市场，铀的价格在周一狂泻10%，跌到61.49美元一磅。一些分析师预测在未来几周或几月中，价格会继续下跌20%，会拖累采矿公司，比如加拿大的Cameco，周一的时候该公司的股票在多伦多下跌12.7%。法国的Areva在巴黎的股票也下跌9.6%。加拿大第二大生产商Uranium One的股票在周一狂泻几乎28%。Rio Tinto 和BHP Billiton，按市值为世界上最大的两个采矿公司，也是很大的产铀的公司。

Is the drop justified? For sure, demand is going to be lower this year and potentially next year. Japan accounts for almost 10 per cent of global uranium consumption and a fifth of the country’s nuclear power plants are down. Some of the reactors are unlikely to restart after suffering significant damage. Worse, Tokyo is likely to order stoppages at unaffected plants this year for security checks, further reducing consumption.
这种下跌合理吗？当然合理，需求将在今年，不排除明年都会下降。日本占据全球铀消耗量的10%，而日本核电厂的五分之一会关闭。某些反应堆在经历过巨大损坏后，无法再次启动。更糟糕的是，日本可能会要求中止未受影响的核电厂运行，以做安全检查，进一步降低消耗。

More broadly, blanket coverage of the nuclear crisis in the west is set to catalyse public opposition against the extension of the life of old plants – some of them about 40 years old – and the building of new reactors. The rosy forecasts of dozens of new reactors in Europe in the next two decades are unlikely to come to fruition. Popular opposition does not derail the plans for new reactors, but construction is likely to be delayed, in some cases significantly, as policymakers demand more safety.
更广泛地，在西方对核危机的全面报道，必将促进公众反对某些大约40年之久的旧核电厂的继续使用，也会反对建造新的核反应堆。在未来20年中，在欧洲建立几十个新反应堆的美好憧憬也会变成泡影。公众的反对不会干扰新的反应堆建立计划，但是更重要的是，因为决策者要求更多的安全性，建造很有可能被推迟。

The key for the price of uranium is not in Europe or the US, however. As in many other commodities markets, developing countries such as China will be far more important. Beijing plans to construct as many as 187 reactors to add to its exisiting 13, according to the World Nuclear Association. CRU, a leading commodities consultancy, said in a comprehensive report published before the Japanese earthquake that Chinese demand for uranium would quadruple in the next decade. By 2030, China will surpass the US as the world’s largest consumer. Traditionally, uranium demand has been concentrated in the US, France and Japan.
然而，取决铀价的关键并不在欧洲或者美国。许多其他的商品市场，比如中国这样的发展中国家将变得至关重要。据世界核能组织称，北京计划在原有13个反应堆的基础上，再建造187个核反应堆。CRU，一个领先的商品咨询事务所，在日本地震前的一份详尽的报告中称，中国对铀的需求将在下一个十年翻4番。在2030年前，中国将超越美国跃居世界最大的铀消耗国。传统上，铀的需要集中于美国，法国和日本。

Jerry Grandey, Cameco chief executive, tried to convey that sentiment on a hastily arranged conference call late on Monday as the share price of his company plunged. “Some people have questioned whether the nuclear renaissance will survive this natural disaster,” he said. “Growth in nuclear capacity in China, India, Korea and elsewhere ... adds tremendous momentum and we expect it will continue.”

Cameo首席执行官Jerry Grandey，随着其公司股价的跳水，试图在周一晚间仓促举行的记者招待会上，传递这样一种调调，他说：“有些人已经质疑原子能的复苏能否挺过自然灾害。中国，印度以及其他地方的核能的增长，添加了巨大的动力，我们预计会持续下去。”

He may be right over the long term, but in the short term, investors are likely to vote with their feet and continue selling uranium – and the miners that produce it。
长久看，他也许是对的，但是短期内投资者可能并不赞同，会继续出售铀，和产铀的矿产公司。