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Global Economy – Global GDP grew 4% in 2010, far above consensus estimates. We expect global growth to exceed the consensus again in 2011.
United States – From almost all sides, US economic activity is gaining momentum. We expect 3.8% real GDP growth in 2011, one percentage point above consensus estimates.
Europe – We remain optimistic on aggregate euro-area growth, but in the periphery growth is likely to remain weak and markets are likely to remain volatile.
Japan – Concern about the strong yen and weakening trade has started to wane, but forthcoming economic data are likely to be volatile as the influence of one-off factors subsides.
China – PMI data suggest that growth momentum has softened but inflation pressure is continuing to rise—and will require further policy tightening. |
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发表于 2011-1-27 12:37