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Labour market growth increases the chance of an interest rate rise.
The Australian labour market strengthened further in September, with the economy gaining an estimated 49,500 additional jobs. Overall, a gain of 55,800 full-time jobs more than offset the loss of 6,300 part-time jobs. Despite this employment growth, the unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% with the participation rate increasing by 0.2% to 65.6%.
Results were mixed across the states, with NSW (+10,700 jobs), VIC (+6,600 jobs), QLD (+19,600 jobs), WA (+2,500 jobs) and the NT (+800 jobs) all experiencing growth in employment while SA (-200) and TAS (-2,300) saw employment decline. Employment in the ACT remained unchanged throughout September.
This strong growth early in the recovery is surprising given that historically, labour market recoveries tend to lag the wider economic recovery. During the GFC, employers tended to reduced hours worked rather than lose employees, many of whom were attained at great cost during a period of labour shortages. Normally, employers tend to absorb this latent capacity prior to hiring more staff. This has not been the case and with the ANZ job ads series rising further in September, it appears that this absorption process will take longer than expected.
Meanwhile, the continued strength in labour markets has reinforced consumer confidence, with optimists clearly outnumbering the pessimists in the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index. However, this has failed to translate into strong retail sales. Retail turnover increased by 0.3% in the month of August (seasonally adjusted current prices), although annual ‘through-the-year’ growth is significantly stronger at 3.5% (August 2010 compared to August 2009). |
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