投资闲谈

jlhan

I assume that you have read the following:  

澳股和经济趋势小谈
http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/v ... &extra=page%3D1

For a number of reasons, I did not continue that thread.  As for myself, I bought a big chunk of Aussie stocks in last April and made some tidy profit.  I bought some US stocks in April as well such as AMAT.  For some relevant information, please check my blog at boxun.com.  
http://www.boxun.com/hero/tianliang/, especially those titled in English or starting with stock.  From now on I probably use this channel for investment discussion. English is the preferred language.   

So, what now?  Sell Aussie properties, convert to US dollars, and buy US stocks and/or US properties especially in California.  Remind us the  century old Yankee slogan: Go West.  ( I am half joking.)  

Do not buy houses in Australia unless you look for a 10 year horison.  The Aussie housing market, Brisbane in particular, is too hot.  Have I seen this before?  You bet.  In 2005 San Francisco Bay Area.  I am not saying that Brisbane property market will crash like US just did.  I will come to this point later.  

Below is just released news on US Fed
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fe ... p;asset=&ccode=

Read it carefully.

[ 本帖最后由 jlhan 于 2009-11-26 04:23 编辑 ]

flinders16

thanks for the thread, but just  a question here, quite a lot people believe that aussie dollar will reach 1:1 against us dollar or even further, and apparently australia performs much stronger than western countries during this financial crisis, so why do you suggest  we should "sell Aussie properties, change to US dollars"? thanks

jlhan

原帖由 flinders16 于 2009-11-25 10:43 发表
thanks for the thread, but just  a question here, quite a lot people believe that aussie dollar will reach 1:1 against us dollar or even further, and apparently australia performs much stronger than w ...

If you read what I have written previously, you should know that I gave no respect to a speculator, even if he is George Soros.  Warren Buffett is an investor not speculator.  As far as currency speculation is concerned, in the long term Aussie dollar is already overvalued now.  It could well reach the parity but no one knows if and when with certainty.  Also I said half jokingly.

[ 本帖最后由 jlhan 于 2010-11-14 18:52 编辑 ]

jlhan

(written 3/25/09)

   韩家亮

我曾考虑在经济接近低点时写一篇文章评论一下这次危机。但因为有些忙，一直拖了下来。郎咸平的文章[1]使我决定现在动笔。
   
   首先来查看那些叫嚣萧条的人不知跑哪儿去了。我早就指出第二次萧条的可能性不大。这也说明 M. Friedman 等的理论认为Fed 政策失误是30年代大萧条的重要因素是正确的。

   
   在[2]有这样一段“幸运的是美国这次危机是在Ben Bernanke作联邦储备主席Henry Paulson作财政部长时发生。 Bernanke是世界上数一数二的研究经济危机专家而Paulson是国际顶尖的金融专家。我对他们的处理有极大的信心。”B. Bernanke和H. Paulson 奠定了Fed 政策基础，立了大功，应该得A。T. Geithner和B. Obama 表现良好，得分A-。
   
   在[3]的10帖中我对郎咸平评的很严厉。这与[1]尊称“著名”经济学家成相当反差。他的文章作小说看是不错的。如果我没记错的话，10帖是在我看了他的一篇关于俄国经济的文章。他在其中所犯的错误一个学经济的undergraduate senior 写 term paper 也不应犯的错误。现在我们来看[1]。一个严肃的经济学家不应随意把apple 和orange比。日本和中国各有自己的经济体系及其dynamics。另外日本90年代长期经济的衰退明明是（1）日本中央银行调利率错误，（2）日本商业银行资金流动问题。我在美国2001年衰退时就了解这些了。A. Greenspan 领导的Fed 避免了Internet Depression 就是因为搞懂了那次日本长期衰退的原因而采取了正确政策。不知郎咸平读不读WSJ。
   
   另外在华夏论坛上碰到芦紫。CND不少读者都熟悉他的好文。他很友善。但他又问我股票问题，使我有口难言。过去损失的无人能补救回来。我写明 Index 投资适合于绝大多数人。Index 投资有多种书和网站介绍，自己可以看，很容易，就是有点boring。另外我过去有帮助亲戚朋友过，但不成功。
   
   注释：   

   [1] 郎咸平警告：摧毁日本经济的力量正在逼近中国
   http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=23352
   [2] 韩家亮：次贷危机和投资浅谈
   http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=20611
   [3] 澳股和经济趋势小谈
   http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/v ... &extra=page%3D1

[ 本帖最后由 jlhan 于 2009-11-26 04:35 编辑 ]

houge

在经济上的研究倒是颇有造诣、令人赏心悦目。。。

jlhan

(written on Aug.25, 2009)

   韩家亮
   
   先提一件事。Paul Krugman made the wrong call on April 14. 那时我想写一篇文章好好地驳斥他一下。在这次衰退中Krugman 与其他人如Warren Buffet， Ben Bernanke 不同。好像他想 Challenge M. Friedman's 的地位。我想“Are you crazy?" 结果我没时间写。事实证明他讲的不对。
   
   我曾对Rodney Topor讲过，依我看诺贝尔奖分三等，物理化学一等，经济二等，和平最高等。（不对医学文学评价。）我在物理上，经济上，和平上有机会。我是 CUSPEA一期的[1]。[2]是我在Duke研究小结。我现在主攻点已经与物理无关。在经济上，现在M. Friedman 去世了，我想顶个缺。（我这人向来野心很大。）至于和平奖方面，（1）在反恐之战，望[3]成为纲领性文件。（2）在中国和平转型，或和平统一之事上搭个桥。

   
   陈志武的文章[5]在华夏论坛上受到强烈攻击使我受到震动。他和我竟毕业于同一大学中南矿冶学院！相对于我他相当顺利。他到Yale读Ph。D。后来成为终身教授。他在08宪章上签字说明他是一条好汉。我支持[5]是因为[6]。
   
   谈一下已故经济学家杨小凯。小凯是传奇人士。文革十年牢狱之灾竟是他学知识的学堂。有说他应得诺贝尔经济学奖。我看这大概没有根据。但是我推荐[7]。感谢主他总算得救了。
   
   我需要谈谈信仰问题。在CND上我关于宗教的文章似乎总是被拒绝，例如[8]，very frustrating。
   
   注释：
   [1]”伊拉克战争，美国大选，及其他”澳股和经济趋势小谈“19帖
   http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/v ... &extra=page%3D1
   [2] My Research in Physics
   http://terrorism.c4c.name/2008/10/12/my-research-in-physics.aspx
   [3] A Biblic View On Islamic Fundamentalism
   http://terrorism.c4c.name/2006/0 ... fundamentalism.aspx
   [4] Australia IT
   http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/v ... &extra=page%3D1
   [5] 陈志武：西方的兴起靠制度不靠掠夺——金融的逻辑
   http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=23547
   [6] 韩家亮：“自由、民主、人权”是普世价值
   http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=20192
   [7] 杨小凯：我认识基督教的三个过程
   http://earlyrain.bokee.com/3593749.html
   [8] 韩家亮：种族歧视与宗教
   http://boxun.com/hero/200904/tianliang/1_1.shtml

黑山老妖

Looks like you are going to be treading a very fine line here.
I want to remind jlhan that there are certain restrictions for discussion on religion and politics.
If you want to get into these areas then I think oursteps will be another place for your frustration.

jlhan

炒股票，炒地产 are Chinese words difficult to translate into English.  In such a context, 炒 may be dubbed as invest, speculate, or even manipulate.  So when a Chinese says to me: you made a lot money by 炒 stocks.  I often am at pains to point out that I am an investor not a speculator, especially not a gambler.  The whole series of stock emails were to teach my friends and relatives, one person in particular, to be an investor not speculator.  One possible telling point is in casinos.  When I go to casinos such as Las Vegas, I never spend much on gaming.  So please use phrases such as 投资人 to describe me.

Brother

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2009-11-26 10:57 发表
Looks like you are going to be treading a very fine line here.
I want to remind jlhan that there are certain restrictions for discussion on religion and politics.
If you want to get into these areas ...

I totally agree with Black Mountain Old Ghost （黑山老妖）

Jihan要知道跟什么人说什么样的话，你应该先看看这个论坛的会员组成，他们的文化背景，教育水平，社会层次，再推销你的交易系统。我没有贬低的意思，但是感觉这个论坛上你的目标客户比较少，所以您就先frustrate一下下吧，正所谓知音难觅啊。

megajet

原帖由 jlhan 于 2009-11-26 01:54 发表
(written 3/25/09)

   韩家亮

我曾考虑在经济接近低点时写一篇文章评论一下这次危机。但因为有些忙，一直拖了下来。郎咸平的文章[1]使我决定现在动笔。
   
   首先来查看那些叫嚣萧条的人不知跑哪儿去了。 ...

原帖由 jlhan 于 2009-11-26 04:47 发表
(written on Aug.25, 2009)

   韩家亮
   
  先提一件事。Paul Krugman made the wrong call on April 14. 那时我想写一篇文章好好地驳斥他一下。在这次衰退中Krugman 与其他人如Warren Buffet， Ben Bernanke 不同。好像他想 Challenge M. Friedman's 的地位。我想“Are you crazy?" 结果我没时间写。事实证明他讲的不对。

事前总是太忙，事后。。。 果然是大师呀！！

jlhan

Bought some DELL.  May try to trade TQNT.  CREE seems run away.  

JBH.AX seems also run away.  SRX.AX is quite high compared with last time I commented it.  JBH.AX may well be an over valued stock while I will hold SRX.AX.  I will explain my reasons later.

jlhan

1. "The Motley Fool Investment Guide," by David and Tom Gardner

2. "Stocks for the Long Run," by Jeremy J.  Siegel

3. "A Random Walk Down Wall Street," by Burton G. Malkiel

4. The Gorilla Game : Picking Winners in High Technology
by    Geoffrey A. Moore, Paul Johnson, Tom Kippola

5. Every Investor's Guide to High-Tech Stocks and Mutual Funds :
Proven Strategies for Picking High-Growth Winners,Michael Murphy

6. "The Warren Buffett Way," Robert G. Hagstrom Jr.

7. "One Up on Wall Street," by Peter Lynch

8. "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need," by Andrew Tobias

9. "What Works on Wall Street," by James P.  O'Shaughnessy

10. "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits," by Philip A. Fisher

11. "The Intelligent Investor," by Benjamin Graham.

12. "Against the Gods," by Peter L. Bernstein.

13. "The Coming Internet Depression", M. Mandel

This list was compiled long time ago.  

You should at least read some before commenting.  

I use English because my Indian friend Raj mentioned an interesting investment strategy, i.e., investing a group of biotech stocks.  I suggest to him that this is not recommended.  Although SRX.AX is relatively successful, PLT.AX, NAL.AX are gone.  Actually Australia is a better place to invest in biotech industry.  I will explain this later.

jlhan

原帖由 megajet 于 2009-11-26 16:05 发表






事前总是太忙，事后。。。 果然是大师呀！！

Gee.  Have you got a degree in a university?  Ask the department chairs to login here to get another Ph.D. degree.  Then, they can fail you.  

Sometime ago oursteps reposted an article from a China rubbish newspaper.  A Russian political scientist forcast that US by now will be partitioned into several parts because of economical crisis.  Some here wanted to help China to get part of USA.  This guy is obvious an idiot because he did not understand economics yet use it to predict US' demise.  I said so at the time.  

Another idiot is lycons.  He/she tries to have Rio Tinto surrended to China.  It was crazy.  I wrote the article below.  I repost it because only very cheap stock yet from good companies can interest me.  In the above, when I made call to buy DELL.  I was up against J Crammer.  J Crammer moves the US market, unlike P Kruger who publishes useless rubishes.  Crammer was bullish on TQNT.  Buying DELL is diversifying my positions.  I still like TQNT and CREE and maybe some other stocks.  When Crammer made the bullish call on TQNT, I was disappointed since it caused TQNT jumped a lot.  

Fortunately, there have been small corrections on both US and AU stock markets.  We will see.  Hope everything you write in the future will be in English.  If someone's English is not good, he/she has no business to buy US or AU stocks.

jlhan

韩家亮
   
   本来不想在CND上谈力拓，因为我觉得还有更重要的问题。但看到这案件引起这么大的关切，加上我在新足迹 http://www.oursteps.com.au/网址上谈力拓，热比娅访澳，新疆，西藏问题被封杀[1]。我不得已向 The Australian 写了信。现在来谈谈我对这件事的看法。
   
   我从1993年起在开始投资澳股，这么多年的经验告诉我矿产股不是好的投资。我记得 CBA 第一次上市时作为 CBA 的顾客我可以买原始股票A$2+。我深受共产党宣传的影响，当看到一台湾同胞在一CBA 分行问可否买CBA股票时，我心里在说，股票市场纯属投机，这家伙还没吃到苦头。但当CBA 上市以后不到一年翻了近一倍。后来CBA 第二次上市时我买了一些CBA股票，大概在A$4.7左右。现在A$44，收益还是不错的。记得96年我初买ANZ时ANZ在 A$2.50 - A$2.90之间。现在ANZ是A$21+。前些时有报道说投资澳洲银行十年的收益略高于Warren Buffet 同期的收益。这是非常好的成绩。这些年来，我深得投资澳洲银行之益。因为要diversify 我曾买过一些矿产股。其中PAS 最惨，它借了大量债开发锌矿结果锌市场需求一跌，债还不出，只有宣布破产。作为PAS的投资者，我分文未收回。记得96年BHP约$18而力拓约 A$19。从现在BHP和力拓的股票价格来看，力拓是经营的较好的。BHP曾经过一次大危机。力拓是少有的直到最近没有经过大危机的大矿产公司。我 2005年回澳洲后已经决定不买矿产股, BHP和力拓除外。即使BHP和力拓也只在股票大跌的时候买进，股票高时抛出，即trade, 赚个外快。不买矿产股的原因是它们的收益很难长期达到10%以上。从 Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, Motley Fool Investment Guide, 等的投资观点来看，你应对CEO 的决策正确错误有准确的分析。经过这么多年我理解矿业公司的CEO的难处：世界原材料价格和需求是notoriously unpredicable，所以很难作好公司的长远规划。

   这次金融危机以前，力拓的股票因中国和其他国家的需求以及BHP要收购的传言曾从A$60-70涨到A$150。当时我还后悔没有买点力拓（greed）。在这次金融危机开始时，BHP，力拓等资源股仍高踞不下，因为中国经济仍发展较快。然后传来力拓举债过多中铝注入资金大量收购力拓股份的消息。这时我庆幸自己早些时没买力拓。作为一个华裔澳洲人来讲当然应从澳洲的国家利益出发。如大多数国家一样，澳洲有审查外资的部门。力拓同意中铝提升股份显示了力拓的困境。我不希望力拓落入中国太子党手中，也知道这个事件是对Kevin Rudd 是一个考验。我是中右但也可以投中左派的票[2]。（2007年澳洲大选我投的是John Howard 的票，并不是对Kevin Rudd 有甚么反对，而是一种保守的选择。）Kevin Rudd 上台以后在二十国集团中大概是最亲近中国的了，以至于反对派有人戏称他为中国大使。我这时只不过作个旁观者而已。然后，力拓放弃了和中铝结合而转于BHP 合作。我想这一下Kevin Rudd 逃出了一次难关。谁知风云突变，中国国安局以间谍罪抓了四个力拓的管理人员。在西方政治中，领导人的character非常重要，而领导人的 character就是在难关时显现出来。《争鸣》的文章《力拓案背后的太子党》[4]不错。我不再详述。
   
   我常在新足迹网 http://www.oursteps.com.au/ 浏览。很喜欢它的美食。同时我也想建立一个黄页网站 http://www.c4c.name/ 与它相配。结果与网管在[1] 线上闹翻。
   注释：
   [1] 新疆,西藏,中国(XinJiang, Tibet, China)
   http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/v ... &extra=page%3D1
   [2] 美国的左中右和我们
   http://my.cnd.org/modules/newbb/ ... amp;forum=6#1640006
   [3] 杨恒均：懂中文的陆克文为何读不懂中国？
   http://peacehall.com/news/gb/pubvp/2009/08/200908281620.shtml
   [4] 争鸣:力拓案背后的太子党
   http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=23619
   [5] 【华夏文摘】 王晓雨：力拓“间谍案”追问（cm0909a）
   http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=23639
   

此文于2009年09月12日做了修改

jlhan

My Indian friend called my attention to the following article: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33861616
Incidentally, my writing is mainly about investment in US and/or AU stocks and properties.  The intended audiences include Aussies, Americans, etc.  So I will use English.  I guess that his question is when is the bottom of the US housing market.  I do not pay close attention to the US property market because I have no intention to buy.  I pay closer attention to the stock market.  Even a guru like Warren Buffet can still buy too early or too late.  His view is the long term.  I feel that the US residential property market is near the bottom.  On the other hand, only after the employment situation improves can the housing market sustain a rebound.  In other words, there is no quick rebound.  So the next 3 - 4 years are probably the best time to buy US residential properties.  

To appreciate how US property market has fallen, some SF Bay Area single family homes are priced below Melbourne or Brisbane similar.  This is ridiculous.  I have been to many US cities and states before.  Only along the US west coast line, from Seattle to San Diego, is where I would prefer to retire.  Along this line, SF Bay Area and San Diego are perhaps the best weatherwise.  For an Asian, Bay Area is the top of the world.  In Aug.2005, I came to Melbourne and then in May, 2006 I came to Brisbane.  When my GP in Brisbane wanted me to compare US with Brisbane, I said to him the house is cheap here.  I was comparing 1M plus or minus in the Bay Area with $350K single family house and $220K condo’s in Brisbane.  Now with Aussie dollar runs so high against the US dollar and US housing cut 30% to 50% while most Brisbane single family homes are selling A$500K+ and townhouse for $400K or so.  (http://www.oursteps.com.au/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=143229)

With Aussie dollar so high, is it time to jump into US housing market?  First, US market is quite different from Aussie market.  If you travel to the US, you rarely see real estate agencies.  If you from Australia buy a property in the US market, who is going to look after the property?  Do not tell me that you intend to fly to US at a telephone call of toilet leak or a renter fails to pay this month’s rent for whatever reason.   I know some friends in the US manage their rental properties.  Maybe they can quit their job and starting a business caring for Aussie investors (just kidding).  

Since Aussie dollar is rather high, is it wise to convert some Aussie dollars to buy US stocks?  This is a tricky question.  I will first analyse this crisis in the next post.  


王蔚：次贷危机的根本原因是政府干预市场
http://my.cnd.org/modules/wfsection/article.php?articleid=22711

老杏

原帖由 jlhan 于 2009-11-28 14:04 发表
我从1993年起在开始投资澳股，这么多年的经验告诉我矿产股不是好的投资。我记得 CBA 第一次上市时作为 CBA 的顾客我可以买原始股票A$2+。我深受共产党宣传的影响，当看到一台湾同胞在一CBA 分行问可否买CBA股票时，我心里在说，股票市场纯属投机，这家伙还没吃到苦头。但当CBA 上市以后不到一年翻了近一倍。后来CBA 第二次上市时我买了一些CBA股票，大概在A$4.7左右。现在A$44，收益还是不错的。记得96年我初买ANZ时ANZ在 A$2.50 - A$2.90之间。现在ANZ是A$21+。前些时有报道说投资澳洲银行十年的收益略高于Warren Buffet 同期的收益。这是非常好的成绩。这些年来，我深得投资澳洲银行之益。因为要diversify 我曾买过一些矿产股。其中PAS 最惨，它借了大量债开发锌矿结果锌市场需求一跌，债还不出，只有宣布破产。作为PAS的投资者，我分文未收回。记得96年BHP约$18而力拓约 A$19。

请重新核实一下你说的价格
96年一年里，ANZ的价格在6块以上；BHP在9元附近。在96年到09年期间，ANZ最高31，BHP最高47。

CBA从92年开始就没有低于5块以下的。

[ 本帖最后由 clur 于 2009-11-28 22:35 编辑 ]

stella_hq

记号

jungle

我个人猜测，LZ可能患有一定程度的癫痫症，每隔一定时间就要抽风一次。现在倒也基本上习惯了。

gypgypgyp

原帖由 clur 于 2009-11-28 22:33 发表


请重新核实一下你说的价格
96年一年里，ANZ的价格在6块以上；BHP在9元附近。在96年到09年期间，ANZ最高31，BHP最高47。

CBA从92年开始就没有低于5块以下的。

呵呵 可惜我加不了分