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原文在这里，清清楚楚，文章说今年三季度涨2%，四季度4%，今年会有6%的涨幅。如果文章的原意是悉尼被高估21%，那应该是降价20%才对。如果所有城市都按照工资增长的制约定价，那么北京上海，悉尼洛杉矶就该只比成都贵阳，或者柏斯休斯顿贵20%，因为工资差距并不大，实际呈几倍的差距就是财富聚集城市的权利。
overvalued这部分，其实就是一线城市，尤其是全球性城市的溢价部分。悉尼只超出工资制约20%，已经非常合理，北上深是吸纳中国有钱人的资金形成的溢价，而悉尼是吸引全球富豪尤其是中国富豪最多的城市，居然价格比北京上海低一两倍，还没有杭州高，悉尼好区比如macquarie park, burwood才百万左右，不到五百万，杭州随便买个带车位，精装修，公摊算上基本100来平方米的房子，在好区至少七八百万，别墅就不用比较了。
SQM: Sydney housing market now 21% overvalued
By Unconventional Economist in Australian Propertyat 12:10 am on August 28, 2019 | 10 comments
SQM Research’s managing director, Louis Christopher, released his weekly email newsletter last night, which claimed that Sydney’s housing overvaluation has fallen from a peak of 52% to 21%:
The Sydney housing market has bottomed out. Many leading indicators now suggest the current September quarter will record about a 2% rise in Sydney dwelling prices and we are expecting a rise of another 4% for the December Quarter. That should take the full year to about a 1% gain compared to 2018.
But let it be known Sydney has bottomed out at an overvalued point. The data suggests the Sydney housing market remains 21% overvalued despite the two year correction. For reference, the average overvaluation (since 1986) in Sydney is 19% with a low point of 5.9% ‘undervalued’ in June 1987 and a high point of 55.5% overvalued in December 2003. The most recent overvalued point was 51.6% in the June Quarter 2017. The most recent undervalued point was 1.6% undervalued in September 2012.
This is all based on our view that there is a relationship between nominal GDP and house prices. And when you read this chart we think the evidence is there. Logically there should be a relationship. Housing price rises cannot outpace income growth forever. And the more the gap between the two, the more housing prices have to be supported by cheaper and easier access to credit.
Historically, the Sydney housing market has rarely been undervalued. There has nearly always been some sort of premium attached.
Effectively the current point suggests, that, left unchecked, we could soon be heading towards yet another historic overvaluation point similar to levels recorded in 2003 and 2017. The key word though in this is “unchecked”. How will the regulators respond when they read newspaper headlines of a new booming Sydney housing market recording annualised double digit percentage price growth?
Our initial thinking is they are unlikely to respond well and may introduce more lending restrictions once again. Then again, if the powers that be feel cornered due to perhaps rising unemployment pressure or the need to hit inflation targets, etc., they may well let the market run.
And then finally consider what happens if we have another rate cut?
Next week we will run the chart for Melbourne.
Let me state from the outset that I disagree strongly with SQM’s choice of valuation metric, which has simply compared the growth of median house prices (as measured by the ABS) against the total growth of the economy (as measured by nominal GDP). This is the wrong approach as nominal GDP includes the impact of population growth, which has risen strongly over the period. Moreover, it does not account for the fact that Australian households’ share of GDP has been falling:
A more consistent methodology would be to compare either:
Median house prices against nominal GDP per capita;
The total value of dwellings against nominal GDP; or preferably
Median house prices against household income. |
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东北冰雪十日游 (2014-2-1) 我是兔小D 
发表于 2019-8-29 16:03
悉尼和墨尔本房价现在就是第三世界国家的房价
