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CBA首席外汇分析师Richard Grace预测本周澳元将继续下探，有可能跌破US60c关口。
中期来看，St George的Besa Deda的观点是年底前澳元调整到US61c，之后一路下滑至US59c，从明年三月份起三个月内回升到US65c。
Dollar could fall below US60c this week
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24557271-31037,00.html
AAP，October 27, 2008 10:42am
THE Australian dollar could slip below US60c and test another five-and-a-half-year low by the end of this week as fears of global recession spur a sell-off, currency strategists say.
The local unit tumbled over the weekend against the US dollar as global share markets and commodity prices continued to slide.
Against the currency of Australia's biggest export market, Japan, the Australian dollar has fallen to its lowest level since the end of World War II.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief currency strategist Richard Grace said the Australian dollar could fall below Friday night's low-point of US60.55c, the weakest level since April 2003.
"The risk is it being lower than current levels by the end of the month,'' Mr Grace said.
"We're just unsure how low it could go.
"There's large risk of much more downside pressure.''
The Australian dollar has shed 39 per cent since hitting a 25-year high of US98.49c in mid July.
At the start of local trading at 7am AEDT, the Australian dollar was at 61.96 US cents, down almost US2c from Friday's domestic close of US63.91c.
The currency has since dropped back to US61.30c in morning trade.
Against the low-yielding Japanese yen, the Australian dollar fell to 55.10 yen on Friday night, its lowest level since the end of World War II, according to Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) data.
The local currency has lost almost half, or 47 per cent, of its value against the yen since late July.
Mr Grace said that with fears of a global recession in the minds of traders, the Australian dollar was likely to finish 2008 at US64c, before dropping to US59c by the end of March 2009.
"It's coming from a selling of the Australian dollar according to downward revisions of global growth and commodity prices,'' he said.
St George chief economist Besa Deda said the prospect of more rate cuts from the RBA and a continuation of financial market turmoil would weigh on the Australian dollar into 2009.
"The main reason for the downgrade lies with the deepening of the credit crisis and its knock-on effects to the economy, both the world and domestic economies,'' she said.
"The mix of factors that will influence the Australian dollar lower also include a deterioration in the global growth outlook, particularly Asia, weaker commodity prices, heightened risk aversion, a slowing domestic economy, more rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia and a continued period of general strength for the US dollar.''
Ms Deda said the Australian dollar was likely to hit US61c by December, fall to US59c in March and recover to US65c in June 2009. |
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dorin小咪苦心钻研半年的经典面包机配方，包管易做好吃！ (2010-5-13) dorin 
发表于 2008-10-27 10:43
