NAB: Australian apartment prices will fall in 2016 只是看到转给大家

kekeca

On the back of affordability concerns, restrictions on investor lending, increased supply and unpredictability of foreign demand, apartment prices in most Australian capital cities are likely fall in 2016.

That's the view of the National Australia Bank who are forecasting a national drop of 1.2% in the year ahead.

"Going into 2016, momentum in the market is expected to flatten out as credit restrictions on investors and worsening affordability bites in Sydney and – to a lesser extent – Melbourne, where foreign investment is a larger element," say the NAB.
Additionally, the existing pipeline of residential construction remains large, especially in the unit/apartment market, which will more than offset new demand."

"Consequently, unit prices are expected to fall 1.2% over 2016," says the bank.

For houses, the NAB predicts property prices will rise 1% over the year, led by an expected 3% increase in Brisbane.

Here's the bank's forecasts for apartment and house prices by capital city in the year ahead. Interestingly, the CoreLogic RP Data five capital city home value index has already gained 1.6% year to date.



只是看到转给大家  不是空军也不是多军

momohan

最近能看到的是悉尼土地供应可用作造APT的的确多了起来， 造公寓是未来的主方向， 这样看来，公寓的供应如果大于需求很可能给公寓价格上涨带来压力， 能不能跌不知道了。 我只知道对于投资者，不涨价就卖出就算是亏了利息和机会成本。 而又多少投资人愿意真正亏欠去卖的呢。

victorvic

momohan 发表于 2016-3-10 08:46
最近能看到的是悉尼土地供应可用作造APT的的确多了起来， 造公寓是未来的主方向， 这样看来，公寓的供应如 ...

个人预测，2016年，负现金流非热门地区House and Apt投资者会往正现金流转移。For example, capital cities other than Sydney.

momohan

victorvic 发表于 2016-3-10 09:50
个人预测，2016年，负现金流非热门地区House and Apt投资者会往正现金流转移。For example, capital citi ...

我觉得机会不大， 正负现金流都是小钱， 资产升值才是大钱， 投资者都明白这个道理， 而且还有负扣税撑着呢。如果你有钱做投资也是会往资本升值的地方投， 而不是放去NT和SA那些虽然正现金流而房价基本不涨的地方么？