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NAB to leap-frog rivals toward $3.1bn capital raising
http://www.businessspectator.com ... -KLAZF?OpenDocument
AAP
National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) is expected to leap-frog its rivals to the top of the capital raising queue by announcing raisings of up to $3.1 billion when it unveils its annual result tomorrow.
NAB last week decided to bring forward its fiscal 2008 results announcement by ten days.
Analysts at JPMorgan and Citigroup say this is a tactic by NAB to beat other banks to investors' pockets and lift its tier one capital ratio above seven per cent to match that of Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd (CBA) and Westpac Banking Corporation (Westpac).
"NAB is perhaps seeking to get in before other banks," Citi analysts Craig Williams, Mark Lang and Wes Nason said in a client note.
JPMorgan analysts Brian Johnson, Scott Manning and David Disney-Willis said there was a "real risk" that one of NAB's rivals could raised capital during the current bank profit reporting season.
Australia's biggest bank by assets has already forecast its fiscal 2008 cash earnings, or profit before abnormal items, to fall by 11 per cent to around $3.9 billion in the year ended September 30.
The bank has also foreshadowed capital raisings via dividend reinvestment plans (DRP), and said its decision to bring forward its reporting date "does not foreshadow any proposed material announcement".
Goldman Sachs JBWere (GSJBW) and Citigroup estimates NAB could seek to raise between $3 billion and $3.1 billion, while Credit Suisse has forecasts a $700 million capital raising in the first half of fiscal 2009.
The impact of a DRP underwriting would drag down NAB's fiscal 2009 cash earnings per share by four per cent given dividend dilution, leading JPMorgan and Credit Suisse to downgrade their fiscal 2009 cash earnings estimates to between $4.218 billion and $4.41 billion respectively.
Net profit for fiscal 2009 is now expected to weigh in between $4.238 billion (JPMorgan) and $5.398 billion (GSJBW).
But suggestions that NAB may announce further writedowns on the value of its portfolio of toxic conduits - on top of the $1.01 billion in write-downs already made this year, and then seek more capital to fill this hole - have been dismissed.
"NAB is wanting to hold more capital for conservatism ... which ultimately reduces one of the overhanging risks on this stock," Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst James Freeman, Ben Khoo and Elizabeth Rogers said in a client note.
NAB's share price has halved over the year from a high of $44.84 last November.
Its share price has fallen after it announced writedowns on US subprime-related instruments in May and July, leaving $2.9 billion of infrastructure debt, commercial mortgage-backed securities and collateralised loan obligations without provisions by the banks's September 30 balance date.
NAB shares closed today at $22.98, up $1.38.
Higher wholesale funding costs have also plagued the bank, causing it to retain some margin from recent central bank interest rate cuts rather than passing on the full rate cut to customers.
But yesterday NAB threw itself into a price war, announcing rate cuts on home and business loans to preserve its market share. |
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our cheeky gold fish~~~ (2007-8-24) 美讶 
发表于 2008-10-20 19:15
