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要点：11月降息概率28%, 12月56%， 明年2月份之前100%.
Weakest inflation run in 16 years opens the door to RBA cut
by Jacob Greber
A rate cut would have the benefit of nudging investment decisions into life at a time when businesses are already telling policymakers like Treasury secretary John Fraser that things may be starting to look up
Normally a show-stopper for financial markets, Wednesday's third-quarter inflation figures are almost certain to be a non-event as far as next week's Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meeting goes.
With wage gains grinding along at a record low, economic growth well below trend and consumer demand still fickle, there is almost no prospect of a significant inflation breakout any time soon.
Even the falling Australian dollar is not sparking a surge in imports, not least because the global oil price has collapsed to around US$50 a barrel. There are still few signs that importers are passing on the increased cost of consumer goods.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg news expect Wednesday's Australian Bureau of Statistics report will show headline consumer price index rose 0.7 per cent from the second quarter, matching the gain in the second quarter.
The chance of an interest rate cut stood at 56 per cent for December but 100 per cent by February.
The chance of an interest rate cut stood at 56 per cent for December but 100 per cent by February. Nicholas Rider
The annual CPI increased by a paltry 1.7 per cent, compared to 1.5 per cent three months earlier.
September's result is likely to mark the fourth straight quarter in which the CPI has held below 1.7 per cent, the most benign run of price gains in 16 years.
More importantly, two of the Reserve Bank's preferred measures of annual core inflation are expected to come in at around 2.4 per cent - well within the middle of the central bank's 2 to 3 per cent target band.
PROPERTY NOT A DANGER
What this means is that despite all the risks thrown up by the great Australian investment property scramble of 2015 - dangers the Reserve Bank has moved to flag at an increasing rate - there is little danger that another potential official interest rate cut would push consumer price inflation above the target range.
All of which explains why board members won't be sweating the CPI figures.
Far more significant is the question of whether the recent round of interest rate hikes by the big four banks spooks the board into an offsetting reduction.
While financial markets only see a 28 per cent chance of a cut - statistically still relatively close to zero - the logic of another reduction would be to firewall household sentiment, which may have been shaken by headlines of the bank rate hikes as well as fevered reports of a fall in property market auction clearance rates.
The chance of an interest rate cut stood at 56 per cent for December but 100 percent by February.
Another factor likely to matter on Melbourne Cup day - and even if they don't move on that day, it will still be a factor in December - is the need to push business investment up a gear.
A rate cut would have the benefit of nudging investment decisions into life at a time when businesses are already telling policy makers such as Treasury secretary John Fraser that things may be starting to look up.
"Surveys of business investment plans released since budget have remained soft," Mr Fraser told an estimates hearing last week. "This is consistent with Treasury's discussions with business but, if anything, I have detected a little more optimism on investment intentions in some areas i the past couple of months or so.
Mr Fraser, who sits on the Reserve Bank board, also revealed he was no longer being "beaten up" as much by businesses concerned about the outlook.
US FED INACTION A FACTOR
As always, international factors will play a big part in the Reserve Bank's thinking. Speculation is again rife that the US Federal Reserve won't move until well into next year.
The currency traded on Tuesday at US72.45¢, up from just above US70¢ at the start of October. More Fed dithering will almost certainly see the Aussie gain more ground.
For now, however, there is no great urgency for another cut, not least because governor Glenn Stevens will be increasingly eager to maintain whatever ammunition he has left in store.
At 2 per cent, the official cash rate is already ultra-stimulatory.
One hint that businesses are enjoying the significant tail-wind of easy monetary policy was provided on Tuesday by quarterly Dun & Bradstreet figures showing companies are settling invoices at a record-low pace of 45.1 days - compared to 49.2 days the previous quarter and 51.7 days a year earlier.
Dun & Bradstreet's report argues that companies are experiencing a rise in cash flows and falling financial stress across the business sector.
It begs the question as to why another official interest rate cut is needed.
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陆陆续续发些旧照，鼓励自己整理照片 (2013-8-3) faintzy 
发表于 2015-10-28 08:19
