对冲基金看空原油 Hedge Funds Boost Bullish Oil Bets by the Most in Four Years (1)

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(Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds increased bullish oil bets by the most in four years as negotiators worked overtime to reach a deal over Iran’s nuclear program.
Speculators boosted their net-long position in West Texas Intermediate crude by 21 percent in the seven days ended March 31, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show, the biggest percentage increase since March 2011. Short positions dropped by the most in three months.
Iran and world powers extended talks past a March 31 deadline to reach a preliminary agreement that brings the Persian Gulf nation closer to increasing oil exports. WTI rose 13 percent from a six-year low in March as U.S. production growth slowed and demand from refineries climbed, signaling stockpiles that have reached the highest since 1930 are poised to decline.
“We’ll have to wait and see what really happens,” Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago, said by phone April 2. “Some of the bears started to throw in the towel because of the inability of the market to follow through to the downside, even with supplies continuing to build.”
WTI futures gained 9 cents to $47.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the period covered by the CFTC report. Prices added 1.8 percent to $50.04 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:16 p.m. Singapore time.
Rising Inventories
The agreement, which sets an outline for further negotiations over the next three months, will set a schedule for the Iran’s enrichment of uranium, limit it to a single site and allow international monitoring over the next quarter-century. The U.S. and European Union will lift the economic sanctions that have crippled the Islamic Republic’s economy, once inspectors verify its compliance.
“The Iran deal has probably already been priced in,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “People realized that there will be no flood of Iranian oil into the market.”
Crude inventories rose by 4.77 million barrels to 471.4 million as of March 27, Energy Information Administration data show. Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI contracts, climbed to a record 58.9 million.
Production slipped for the first time in eight weeks, dropping 36,000 barrels a day after rising just 3,000 barrels the previous week.
Net-long positions in WTI gained 28,410 to 163,367 futures and options in the week ended March 31, CFTC data showed. Short positions dropped 19,065, while longs gained 9,345.
Other Markets
In other markets, bearish wagers on U.S. ultra low sulfur diesel fell 915 to 25,983 contracts. The fuel climbed 0.7 percent to $1.7179 a gallon in the report week.
Net-short bets on U.S. natural gas doubled to 70,353, the most in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 2010. The measure includes an index of four contracts adjusted to futures equivalents. Nymex natural gas dropped 5.2 percent to $2.64 per million British thermal units during the report week.
Bullish bets on gasoline declined 12 percent to 24,185 contracts. Futures declined 1.1 percent to $1.78 a gallon.
The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline slipped 0.4 cent to $2.395 a gallon on April 3, the lowest since Feb. 26, according to Heathrow, Florida-based AAA, the nation’s biggest motoring group.
U.S. refineries used 15.7 million barrels a day of crude, up 615,000 from a month earlier. Plants are set to boost rates further as seasonal maintenance ends.
“People are expecting stronger demand,” Lynch said.