蓬勃的矿产业能持续多久?

Artcore

俺的一个大学同学和他同事做的Research, 真正的牛人啊.

Commodity prices have risen strongly this year despite the world growth outlook deteriorating. Some commentators believe that speculation and US dollar weakness explain this dynamic. But they believe in a more fundamental explanation - that the level of world demand is simply too high, and inflation is a natural consequence. World demand and inflation are high because of easy global monetary conditions, particularly in China. For some time, global rates have been well below nominal GDP growth. Indeed, on this basis, Chinese interest rates are effectively 13% too low. Low rates have fostered strong credit creation, which has brought forward growth and put pressure on production capacity. With too much money chasing too few goods, inflation has surged higher.

全文在PDF里面,Happy Reading.

[ 本帖最后由 Artcore 于 2008-7-9 11:03 编辑 ]

黑山老妖

So from that research paper I would conclude it's time to sell commodity related stocks. Reason been the Euro zone is starting to put up rates and US is probably going to put up rates the chance of commodity price coming down is very very good (0.8 correlation).
Am I right?

Artcore

It suggests there maybe a correction in resources sector in the medium term, short term resources sector is still strong.

philgu

Can't download the pdf file at work. Quite agree with the idea that short term the commodity stocks are due for correction. It will be next leg down for ASX.

The key to the resource boom is China and China is encountering serious headwinds.
1. all input cost skyrocketed in the last few years. Metal, energy, food and wage is running 10-15%p.a. Inflation is at 8.7% at May. With 17.5% price hike for petrol, it will be higher in June. Even with the price hike, the petrol price is still only less than 60% we are paying here. There will be substantial room for more increases.
2. the interest rate is seriously too low given the inflationary pressure. With negative real interest rate, the inflation is bound to get out of hand. But Chinese government has very limited room to hike given it will only excerbate more hot money inflow which is major source of inflation already. The banks reserve requirement is already 17.5% and what else can they do now? Revaluation of RMB to fend off the inflow of hot money would need at least 20% revaluation at once. That will just sign the death warrant for the export industry.
3. competitiveness of the export is eroded by higher input cost, rising RMB and huge increase in shipping cost to major export destinations. It just not possible to make up the gap by productivity gain. There are already signs that US companies move their business to mexico or even us given the proximity and weaker currency.
4. with the tightening of the credit conditions, assets bubble are bursting for equity market. How long can the property market hold up?
5. after the hype of olympic games over later this year, there should be slowing in the domestic economy.

So what else to pop up the resource boom? India is having its own major problems as well. My guess is there isn't much.

[ 本帖最后由 philgu 于 2008-7-9 12:12 编辑 ]

Melway

中国经济危险了吗？

吃喝拉撒睡

原帖由 黑山老妖 于 2008-7-9 11:28 发表
So from that research paper I would conclude it's time to sell commodity related stocks. Reason been the Euro zone is starting to put up rates and US is probably going to put up rates the chance of co ...

old black's fundemental挺对的，我也觉得参杂着中国效应的commodity已经强弩之末。到可能不是因为中国不要铁疙瘩了，是因为炒作概念的周期性。还有就是对中国的看法。到现在为止不少gloom on china的看法都错了。可这也不能说明中国会永远这么不知疲倦下去。中国经济已其说不可控不如说不清晰，比如说现在看房地产泡泡破灭的影响是个很大的区间值，泡泡的重量太说不准。之前10%GDP Growth+2%inflation，房市股市都熊。觉得这个经济体又大又不efficent，好的坏的全有。

Devil_Star

我想接下来的热点有可能是ALTERNATIVE ENERGY， 最近铀好像终于反弹一点了， 目前其它RENEWABLE ENGERGY的股也没有大市那样受次贷连锁风暴影响。