CURRENCY ANALYSIS - US Dollar through 2015

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US Dollar through 2015
Long-term Trend Remains Higher… and the Ruble will remain in Rubble

In our second annual long-term U.S. Dollar Outlook, our medium-term and long-term bullish outlooks from 2014 remain intact for 2015. Some goals have been achieved, while others remain on target. In addition, a major shift has occurred for the Russian Ruble, and our 2015 forecast adds fuel to the U.S. Dollar.

EUR/USD Outlook

Over the last six years, we have stressed the 7 year cycle that the EUR/USD has been developing. Our long-term forecast has continued to stress a top in the EUR/USD in 2009, and continue to forecast the subsequent decline to 1.1555, out to January 2015. We continue to forecast a weak corrective rally, now to 1.2335, down from 1.2790, into May 2015 before resuming the final decline to .9890 strong long-term support through October 2015. We are forecasting a subsequent broad medium-term consolidation (.9890 – 1.1555) into early 2016.   
                                                           
In order to protect investors, we continue to focus on where risk management would terminate our long-term bullish forecast for the EUR/USD. Only a monthly close back above 1.3435 would terminate our bullish forecast, and result in a rally in EUR/USD to 1.4470 over the subsequent six months in a higher volatile range view of  (1.2790 – 1.4470) into 2015.

GBP/USD Outlook

GBP/USD has been technically medium-term neutral for five years, in an increasingly neutral, broad, long-term outlook. The massive wedge formation of the last 30 years has now tightened relatively to (1.4245 – 2.0155). After the forecast retest of 1.7045 in June 2014, the monthly close back below 1.6540 eroded medium-term technicals back to neutral/bearish. We are forecasting a decline to retest 1.4815 into June 2015 in a neutral/bearish medium-term outlook (1.4815 – 1.6460) over the next  6 months. Only a monthly close back above 1.6460 would avert the decline to 1.4815 and result in a weak rally to retest 1.7045 strong long-term resistance over the subsequent two months.

NOTE:  EUR/GBP still forecast to decline to .7030 over the next 12 months.

USD/JPY Outlook

The decline in USD/JPY to 75.55 in late 2011 produced the strongest medium-term and long-term divergences of the previous ten years. This rare and very significant occurrence that we have stressed for the last three years has produced the forecast long-term rally in USD/JPY to 118.80. We are forecasting a subsequent weak retest of 112.30 through January 2015 to alleviated mixed long-term technicals, then higher again to 120.70 into March 2015 in a less volatile medium-term outlook through August 2015 (112.30 – 124.15). Again, for risk management purposes, our long-term outlook would only change if there was a monthly close back below 96.80, terminating further long-term rallies and resulting in a broad neutral medium-term outlook (87.10 – 107.15) over the subsequent year.

NOTE:  EUR/JPY medium-term objective 148.10 is complete. We are now forecasting a broad, medium-term consolidation (134.15 – 149.25) into August 2015.

USD/CHF Outlook

As mentioned in last year’s long-term outlook, from the days of trading currencies interbank through the 1980’s and early 1990’s, as well as today, USD/CHF has always been my barometer for imminent changes to the U.S. Dollar. After surviving the .8890 critical monthly close last April left medium-term and long-term technicals neutral/bullish, we continue to forecast a rally in USD/CHF to 1.0525, out to March 2015 from May 2014. We continue to forecast a subsequent strong rally to 1.2295, down from 1.3085, into October 2015 in our ongoing long-term bullish outlook. Only a monthly close back below .9170 would terminate the forecast rally and commence a decline to .8240 strong long-term support over the subsequent five months.

NOTE: EUR/CHF, the secondary but important directional indicator to USD/CHF, continues to sit at the 1.1990 critical monthly close. We continue to forecast a rally, now to 1.2590, down from 1.2650 through June 2015 in a neutral/bullish medium-term outlook. Only a monthly close below 1.1990 would terminate the forecast rally and result in a broad neutral/bearish medium-term outlook (1.1740 – 1.2390) over the subsequent six months.

USD/RUB Outlook

The “Ruble in Rubble” title above was not an exaggeration but more a realistic comment about the forecast for the next year. Although the last five years remained in the (23.80 – 36.70) relatively stable range, not to mention the even more muted range from 1999 to 2009, the meteoric four month rally in USD/RUB has produced strong multiple short- and medium-term divergences. We are forecasting a weak retest of 50.40 resulting strong short-term and weak medium-term support through January 2015, then higher to retest 67.65 resulting strong medium-term pivot point into March 2015 in a less volatile medium-term consolidation into September 2015 (48.65 – 79.50) to alleviate the divergent medium-term conditions. Only a monthly close back below 47.70 would again neutralize the technicals for the USD/RUB and yield a retest of 36.70 over a month.

In summary, we continue to be bullish on the U.S Dollar for the next 10 months. EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CHF are still bullish in the forecast multi-year trend. Only USD/JPY has achieved its long-term objectives and will become the stable anchor in the volatile U.S. Dollar rally ahead. The severe weakness in the Ruble will also lend support to the U.S. Dollar over the next 10 months.


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