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Are you wondering why three states are in lockdown, more than 16 million Australians are being restricted of movements, and yet, the ASX marched to the new record highs? Let me share some of my views.
The consensus is, this time, the most affected are the small businesses, the big companies which make up the ASX are not being affected as much, if at all.
For example, the miners and the banks, they are mostly operating business as usual, and they make up of two thirds of the ASX 200 market cap.
And for other big companies, they would already have the work from home arrangements in place for the employees.
And for some employees, they haven’t gone back to the office since the pandemic began last year, so lockdown or not, really does not make a difference.
But for small business, and particularly the retails (most retails are small businesses), they are being hit the hardest.
And the second reason is that the stock market is forward looking. Even though half of the population is in lockdown, it is only going to be temporary.
Last year, when the news about the virus first emerged, we have no idea how it was going to end.
We now have the vaccine, and we know the economy will bounce back, the jobs will be created again, it is just a matter of when, not if.
Thirdly, the money printing does work. With the government help available, it is not as scary as once thought. If you give money to the low income class, most of it will be spent, which helps the flow of money and eventually, the printed money will have the multiplier effect and will boost the economy to a larger extent.
Mark my word, the ASX200 will hit 8000 mark by the end of the year.
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