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作者：约翰-默登 你如何理解滞胀？ 美联储备忘录：通货膨胀？什么通货膨胀？ 美联储还会再反复减息 该死的通胀鱼雷！全速前进！ 苹果、斯普林特、AT&T、转向黑暗面 我昨晚同享有Stratfor盛誉的乔治-弗里德尔曼谈了话，本周的话题就受此启发。乔治说这次经济衰退将是短暂而急剧的，我当然是认为这次衰退将是浅度的，并伴随以漫长而缓慢的“跋涉式”复苏。具体结果如何将取决于美联储如何看待通胀问题。 当前，媒体相当担心通货膨胀和经济衰退结合起来，逼迫我们重演1970年的滞胀悲哀。就现在的经济数据来看，有这种担忧当然是情有可原的。本周，我们来看几个不同的通货膨胀定义。美联储怎么可以对通货膨胀置之不理（美联储主席伯南克和副主席科恩都给出了相当温和的讲话）？他们不是应当确保物价稳定吗？看看他们的那些欧洲同行们，人家可都对抗击通胀表示了强硬态度，并说到做到。 有人提出美联储也应当这样做。这个问题是没有简单答案的，不过我会尝试将冲突问题一一列出来，并说明美联储为什么还将会一减再减，就此我已经写了数月时间了。友善的读者们，让我们把脑筋开动起来，因为我们接下来要深入钻研一些难解而非常重要的课程。 不过首先，最后跟大家通知一下，现在距我的第五届年度策略投资会登记截止日只剩一周时间了，投资会将于4月10至12日在拉荷亚举行（与我的合作方Altegris投资公司共同举办）。邀请的演讲嘉宾有Pimco的保罗-麦卡利、BMO的唐-考斯（我最敬爱的两位经济学家，也是出色的演说家）、罗布-亚诺特、数据专家格雷格-韦尔登、Stratfor的乔治-弗里德尔曼、你们这位谦卑的分析师还有十多位对冲基金经理人，他们将会告诉你他们是如何在这浑水里摸鱼的。 参加过往届会议的朋友大都将这个会评为他们当年参加过的最好的投资会，也经常有人说是他们参加过的所有投资会中最好的。由于监管原因，此会仅向拥有超过200万美元资产净值的人士开放。我很不想做这样的限制，但规则就是规则。你可以点击链接：https://hedge-fund-conference.com/invitation.aspx?ref=mauldin 登记及了解会议的有关信息。登记后，Altegris投资公司的一位员工将会与您联系，所有与会者都必须跟Altegris的一位专业人士交谈过。再次，这是因为会议涉及私募股权投资内容，我们为应付规定所做的安排。如果您有任何疑问，请与我联系。 你如何理解滞胀？ 美联储备忘录：通货膨胀？什么通货膨胀？ 美联储还会再反复减息 在本周的国会听证会上，伯南克几乎是许诺了美联储将会有更多次减息。市场预期美联储基金利率在六个月内至少还会再降低1％，并按此进行定价。我认为会更快。美联储在对市场危机做出反应上是不会慢吞吞，每次会议只减25个基点的，这不是他们的作风。如果美联储在下次会议（三月份）上只减息25个基点，股市会关门大吉的。 该死的通胀鱼雷！全速前进！ Stagflation and the Fed February 29, 2008 by John Mauldin How Do You Spell Stagflation? Memo from the Fed: Inflation? What Inflation? The Fed Will Cut and Cut Again Damn the Inflation Torpedoes! Full Speed Ahead! Apple, Sprint, AT&T, and Going to the Dark Side -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This week's topic was inspired by a discussion I had with George Friedman of Stratfor fame last night. He was suggesting the recession would be short and steep, and I of course think it is going to be shallow and with a long, protracted, and slow Muddle Through recovery. And it all hinges on how the Fed thinks about inflation. There is considerable angst in the press about inflation and recession conspiring to bring us to a repeat of the 1970s woes of stagflation. And the economic data can certainly be interpreted as warranting such concern. This week we look at several different definitions of inflation. How can the Fed (in the form of both Fed chairman Bernanke and governor Kohn giving quite dovish presentations) dismiss inflation? Aren't they supposed to make sure that prices are stable? Just look at their European counterparts who talk tough on inflation and then "walk their talk." There are those who suggest the Fed should do the same. There is no easy answer, but I will try to lay out the conflicting concerns and explain why the Fed is going to cut and cut again, as I have been writing for months. Let's put on our thinking caps, gentle reader, as we delve into some arcane but very important lessons. But first, and for the last time at the beginning of my letter, I want to remind you there is only a week left to register for my 5th annual Strategic Investment Conference, to be held in La Jolla April 10-12 (co-hosted by my partners at Altegris Investments). Speakers include Paul McCulley of Pimco, Don Coxe of BMO (two of my favorite economists anywhere, and simply brilliant speakers), Rob Arnott, data maven Greg Weldon, George Friedman of Stratfor, as well as your humble analyst and a dozen hedge fund managers who will show you how they navigate in these troubled waters. Attendees at previous conferences generally rate them as the best conference they attend in any given year, and often the best conference they have ever been to. We do try to do it right. The conference is limited to those with a net worth of over $2,000,000, due to regulatory requirements. I simply hate to put limits like that, but rules are rules. You can register and learn more by clicking on the following link. https://hedge-fund-conference.com/invitation.aspx?ref=mauldin. You can register at that link, and someone from Altegris will call you, as all attendees must have a conversation with a professional from Altegris. Again, those are the regulations you deal with when there are private offerings being discussed at a conference. And let me know if you have any problems. How Do You Spell Stagflation? |
