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Part A 今 天的东亚市场，总体来说依旧是一个低Volume的日子，拿HK来说，整体的交易量大低于日常交易，且Warrant的交易活动占到了全部交易量的 45%左右，indicating institutional players的严重缺阵。和几个Broker Houses的谈话中也不难发现，人儿们亦几乎均在假日中, 大多未回归。 Part B 做个Scary的专题，What risk that we r facing at the moment, especially in extreme scenario? 列举为主，不做详谈。 1. More decline on housing price. 虽然房地产市场的泡沫破裂已经有一阵子了，但就目前的数据以及整体调整的情况来看，这个下 跌的过程依旧尚未见底。 2. More financial market write offs. 目前的数据显示，To date的金融市场wrtie off已达到116Bln Usd. 就从G7会议的共识数据400 Bln Usd来看，前面依旧是漫漫长路，更何况这个数据只是based on housing market's decline is around 10-15% from the peak, 何其乐观的assumption呀！ 3. More structure finance stuffs to be discontinued and more to decline Credit card loan and related securities, Car loan and related securities, u name it.. 4. Monoline的自身的问题 不用多说了，引用一句极佳的话来概括就是：Any business that required an AAA rating to stay in business is a business that does not deserve such a rating in the first place. 5. Monoline的潜在的D/G带来的影响 影响之巨，无以言表。被Insured的那些结构性产品，Muni，以及那些购买流动性保护的Money market fund， again u name it! 6. 商业房地产市场 静悄悄地，most of the CDs on commercial mortgage related securities r traded twice as wide as last august peak. Another wave to come here, hope u r not too late to the parties my frd! 7. 急剧升高的Corporate Default Rate 历史上来看，平均的公司Default Rate大约在3.8%左右，而06-07这样的黄金时代里，it is only around 0.6%. 等到这些“炫丽”的风景都看透后，你手头留着bond价值还有几多，that is a question。。。 8. LBO Debt 还 是那些日子，LBO债券被开心地打包，被承销，被发行，被出售，some of them even indicating a debt/equity ratio of more than 7-8 times。。。信用危机以来，数据显示sitting on banks' balance sheet 上的LBO债券的总价值大约在160Bln左右，且most of them still r marked at par or worst 90 cent，u know what is gonna happen rite?随着risk premium的急剧升高，随着credit的tightening，这些LBO债券的出路只能是：1. 按照现有的risk 价格来price，which means u hv to sell them at the very low price to make the yield good enough to compensate the risk of holding the bonds; 2. Let them sit on the balance sheet and doing the game of wait and see ... then write it off slowly. 9. Shadow Banking System and the unwinding of them. SIV, Conduits, ABCP，Balance sheet says: Welcome back guys! and 10, 11... What abt positive side? Eh...let me hv some more sleep and i will tell u abt it later... [ 本帖最后由 oliverzeno 于 2008-2-12 21:21 编辑 ] |
